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AAOI vs HPE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) vs. Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AAOI has surged over 280% YTD, driven by AI data center transceiver orders, contrasting with HPE's modest 4.7% YTD gain amid steady AI infrastructure demand.
- AAOI, a fiber-optic specialist, shows high volatility with a 52-week range of $9.71–$134.49, while HPE offers stability in its $12.15–$26.44 range.
- Market caps differ sharply: AAOI at ~$10B vs. HPE at ~$33B, reflecting scale in enterprise IT vs. niche optics growth.
- Recent momentum favors AAOI with double-digit gains on hyperscaler orders, but HPE benefits from earnings beats and AI backlog expansion.
- Both tap AI trends, yet AAOI risks profit-taking volatility, while HPE provides dividend yield (~2.3%) and broader revenue base.
Introduction
This stock comparison pits AAOI, a provider of fiber-optic networking products for data centers and telecom, against HPE, a global edge-to-cloud platform offering servers, storage, and networking solutions. Both companies are riding the AI infrastructure wave, with demand for high-speed optics and scalable compute driving interest. Traders seeking high-momentum plays may eye AAOI's explosive relative performance, while long-term investors might prefer HPE's established scale and stability. This analysis examines recent market positioning, growth drivers, and head-to-head metrics to inform stock comparison decisions in today's AI-fueled environment.
AAOI Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), Inc. designs and manufactures fiber-optic products including transceivers, lasers, and amplifiers for internet data centers, cable TV (CATV), telecom, and fiber-to-the-home (FTTH) markets. In recent market activity, AAOI shares have delivered explosive gains, up over 280% year-to-date and trading around $132 with a market cap near $10B. This momentum stems from major hyperscaler orders for 800G and 1.6T transceivers totaling over $200M, fueling AI optimism and expansions like new cleanroom capacity. Sentiment has shifted positively on analyst upgrades, such as Rosenblatt's $140 target, though volatility persists with profit-taking after peaks near $134. Revenue TTM stands at $456M, with 34% quarterly growth, underscoring data center demand but highlighting ongoing profitability challenges (negative EPS).
HPE Overview and Recent Performance
Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE) Company develops edge-to-cloud solutions across servers, hybrid cloud, networking, and financial services segments, serving enterprises worldwide. Recent weeks have seen steady performance, with shares around $25 and a ~$33B market cap, up 4.7% YTD amid broader market dynamics. Key influences include Q1 earnings beats with $9.3B revenue and 33% YoY earnings growth, driven by AI server backlog and on-premise data center shifts. Developments like the Nvidia-based AI Grid, security advancements, and a $2B debt offering for growth have bolstered sentiment. Analysts have raised targets (e.g., Evercore ISI to $30), citing resilient demand, though shares reflect modest momentum compared to pure AI plays. TTM revenue reaches $35.7B with 18% quarterly growth, supporting a forward P/E of ~10.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AAOI and HPE both leverage AI data center expansion but diverge in business models: AAOI focuses on specialized fiber-optic components with niche, high-growth exposure (34% revenue growth), while HPE provides integrated enterprise infrastructure (18% growth) across broader segments. Recent momentum starkly contrasts—AAOI's 280% YTD surge on transceiver orders vs. HPE's 5% gain on steady earnings. Risk profiles differ: AAOI exhibits high beta (~3.3) and volatility from order dependency, lacking dividends, whereas HPE offers stability, a 2.3% yield, and lower forward multiples (~10x vs. AAOI's 84x). Sector overlap in tech favors AAOI for pure-play AI optics sentiment, but HPE edges in diversification and cash flow generation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors AAOI for its superior trend consistency, explosive catalysts like hyperscaler orders, and stronger relative positioning in AI optics demand. While HPE shows stability and earnings reliability, AAOI's momentum suggests higher near-term probability of outperformance, albeit with elevated volatility risks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AAOI is a Hold and HPE is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAOI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileHPE’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AAOI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- HPE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAOI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HPE’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAOI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HPE’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AAOI (@Telecommunications Equipment) experienced а +5.86% price change this week, while HPE (@Telecommunications Equipment) price change was +6.23% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Telecommunications Equipment industry was +5.72%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.74%, and the average quarterly price growth was +40.97%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAOI is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
HPE is expected to report earnings on Jun 02, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Telecommunications Equipment (+5.72% weekly)The Telecommunications Equipment industry produces voice and data communications equipment, which includes fiber optic delivery products, digital signal processors, high-speed voice, data and video delivery. Additionally, satellite systems, global positioning systems, wireless data systems, personal communications equipment, telephone handsets and payload equipment for satellites also fall into this category. Apple Inc., QUALCOMM Incorporated and Nokia are major global players in this segment.
| AAOI | HPE | AAOI / HPE | |
| Capitalization | 12.4B | 35.1B | 35% |
| EBITDA | -15.51M | 4.73B | -0% |
| Gain YTD | 357.315 | 10.782 | 3,314% |
| P/E Ratio | N/A | 27.45 | - |
| Revenue | 456M | 35.7B | 1% |
| Total Cash | 206M | 4.84B | 4% |
| Total Debt | 248M | 21.6B | 1% |
AAOI | HPE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 47 | 32 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 71 Overvalued | 11 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 43 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 90 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 6 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 10 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HPE's Valuation (11) in the Computer Processing Hardware industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AAOI (71) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that HPE’s stock grew somewhat faster than AAOI’s over the last 12 months.
AAOI's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HPE (43) in the Computer Processing Hardware industry. This means that AAOI’s stock grew somewhat faster than HPE’s over the last 12 months.
HPE's SMR Rating (90) in the Computer Processing Hardware industry is in the same range as AAOI (92) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that HPE’s stock grew similarly to AAOI’s over the last 12 months.
HPE's Price Growth Rating (6) in the Computer Processing Hardware industry is in the same range as AAOI (34) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that HPE’s stock grew similarly to AAOI’s over the last 12 months.
AAOI's P/E Growth Rating (8) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as HPE (9) in the Computer Processing Hardware industry. This means that AAOI’s stock grew similarly to HPE’s over the last 12 months.
| AAOI | HPE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 90% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 84% | 3 days ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 87% | 6 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 87% | 3 days ago 73% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| RDTE | 29.12 | 0.57 | +2.00% |
| Roundhill Russell 2000 0DTECovCllStgyETF | |||
| FREL | 29.35 | 0.48 | +1.66% |
| Fidelity MSCI Real Estate ETF | |||
| CAIE | 26.79 | 0.20 | +0.75% |
| Calamos US Eq Autocallable Income ETF | |||
| PSFO | 33.50 | 0.23 | +0.69% |
| Pacer Swan SOS Flex (October) ETF | |||
| LQDW | 24.15 | 0.04 | +0.17% |
| iShares Invm Grd Crp Bd Buywrt Stgy ETF | |||
AAOI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAOI has been loosely correlated with CIEN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AAOI jumps, then CIEN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AAOI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAOI | 100% | +1.33% | ||
| CIEN - AAOI | 55% Loosely correlated | +2.48% | ||
| LITE - AAOI | 54% Loosely correlated | +0.32% | ||
| LASR - AAOI | 47% Loosely correlated | +1.37% | ||
| NVDA - AAOI | 45% Loosely correlated | +1.68% | ||
| HPE - AAOI | 45% Loosely correlated | +2.12% | ||
More | ||||
HPE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HPE has been loosely correlated with HLIT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 45% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HPE jumps, then HLIT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HPE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HPE | 100% | +2.12% | ||
| HLIT - HPE | 45% Loosely correlated | +2.74% | ||
| CSCO - HPE | 45% Loosely correlated | +2.07% | ||
| ITRN - HPE | 42% Loosely correlated | +1.91% | ||
| EXTR - HPE | 42% Loosely correlated | +2.80% | ||
| VIAV - HPE | 41% Loosely correlated | +7.23% | ||
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