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ARM vs NVMI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arm Holdings (ARM) vs. Nova Ltd. (NVMI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ARM (ARM) boasts a massive market cap of over $215 billion, driven by its IP licensing model in AI and data centers, with YTD returns around 88% and recent monthly gains exceeding 39%.
- NVMI (NVMI) shows robust growth in semiconductor metrology, with YTD returns near 57% and 1-year gains over 163%, supported by 31% annual revenue growth.
- Both stocks benefit from AI-driven semiconductor demand, but ARM's higher beta (3.41) indicates greater volatility compared to NVMI's 1.78.
- ARM trades at a premium trailing P/E of 271 versus NVMI's 62, reflecting differing growth expectations in their niches.
- Recent market activity highlights ARM's data center royalty surge over 100% YoY, while NVMI reports record revenues from advanced process control.
- Traders eyeing semiconductor exposure may weigh ARM's scale against NVMI's specialized metrology edge in AI chip production.
Introduction
Arm Holdings (ARM) and Nova Ltd. (NVMI) represent pivotal players in the semiconductor ecosystem, fueled by surging AI and data center demand. ARM licenses energy-efficient processor architectures essential for mobile, cloud, and AI applications, while NVMI delivers metrology (precision measurement) and process control solutions critical for advanced chip manufacturing. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, business models, and market positioning, aiding traders and investors navigating the volatile tech sector. With both exhibiting strong relative performance amid broader market gains, understanding their contrasts supports informed decisions on semiconductor stock exposure.
ARM Overview and Recent Performance
Arm Holdings plc (ARM), based in Cambridge, UK, designs intellectual property (IP) for central processing units (CPUs), holding over 99% market share in smartphones and expanding in data centers. Its business model generates revenue from upfront licensing fees and royalties per chip shipped, yielding high gross margins near 97%. In recent market activity, ARM stock has surged, with year-to-date returns around 88% and monthly gains over 39%, closing near $209 amid pre-earnings anticipation for Q4 fiscal 2026 revenues of $1.47 billion (18% YoY growth). Sentiment has been bolstered by data center royalty growth exceeding 100% YoY, driven by AI adoption from partners like NVIDIA and Amazon, alongside announcements of its first in-house data center CPU. Trading at a trailing P/E of 271 and beta of 3.41, ARM reflects high growth expectations but elevated volatility.
NVMI Overview and Recent Performance
Nova Ltd. (NVMI), an Israel-based innovator, provides advanced metrology and process control solutions for semiconductor fabrication, measuring dimensions, materials, and chemicals to ensure chip quality. Its offerings support advanced nodes in logic, memory, and packaging, vital for AI accelerators. Recent performance shows resilience, with year-to-date returns near 57% and 1-year gains over 163%, as shares trade around $516 after hitting a 52-week high near $550. Fiscal 2025 revenues reached a record $881 million, up 31% YoY, with Q4 at $223 million slightly above estimates; management guides continued expansion from AI-linked demand and gate-all-around (GAA) transistor adoption. At a trailing P/E of 62 and beta of 1.78, NVMI's market cap stands at $16 billion, with sentiment supported by strong EPS growth and acquisitions enhancing metrology capabilities, though cyclical semiconductor risks persist.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ARM (ARM) and NVMI (NVMI) both thrive in AI/semiconductor tailwinds but diverge in scale and model. ARM's IP licensing yields scalable, high-margin royalties (97% gross), with growth from data center share gains (20% from 9% since FY22) versus traditional mobile; however, its $215B market cap and 271 P/E signal premium pricing amid high beta (3.41) volatility. NVMI, at $16B cap, sells hardware/software metrology, posting 31% revenue growth from advanced packaging/AI demand, with lower 62 P/E and beta (1.78) offering relative stability but exposure to fab cycle risks. Momentum favors ARM (88% YTD vs. 57%), but NVMI's 455% 3-year return highlights consistent execution; trade-offs include ARM's ecosystem breadth versus NVMI's niche precision in process control, with shared geopolitical/supply chain risks in semis.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI leans toward ARM in the current environment, citing superior trend consistency from data center catalysts and 39%+ recent momentum, positioning it favorably amid AI infrastructure buildout. NVMI's steady metrology demand provides balance, but ARM's scale and royalty acceleration suggest higher probabilistic upside, albeit with elevated volatility. Observable factors like relative YTD outperformance and sector exposure favor ARM for momentum traders, while NVMI suits stability-focused positions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ARM is a Hold and NVMI is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARM’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileNVMI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- ARM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NVMI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARM’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NVMI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARM’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
- NVMI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ARM (@Semiconductors) experienced а +4.62% price change this week, while NVMI (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was +6.86% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +8.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +47.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was +78.48%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +6.17%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +29.19%, and the average quarterly price growth was +138.13%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARM is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
NVMI is expected to report earnings on May 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+8.41% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
@Electronic Production Equipment (+6.17% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
| ARM | NVMI | ARM / NVMI | |
| Capitalization | 227B | 16.7B | 1,359% |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 276M | 400% |
| Gain YTD | 94.538 | 60.191 | 157% |
| P/E Ratio | 250.18 | 66.09 | 379% |
| Revenue | 4.67B | 881M | 530% |
| Total Cash | 3.54B | 1.05B | 338% |
| Total Debt | 461M | 799M | 58% |
NVMI | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| ARM | NVMI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 9 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 73% |
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|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| JUNT | 37.83 | 0.09 | +0.24% |
| AllianzIM US Equity Buffer10 Jun ETF | |||
| FTQI | 21.55 | 0.05 | +0.23% |
| First Trust Nasdaq BuyWrite Income ETF | |||
| CPSN | 27.49 | N/A | N/A |
| Calamos S&P 500 Structured Alt Protection ETF - November | |||
| MSD | 7.39 | -0.03 | -0.34% |
| Morgan Stanley Emerging Markets Debt Fund | |||
| VBR | 232.12 | -1.45 | -0.62% |
| Vanguard Small-Cap Value ETF | |||
ARM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARM has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARM jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | 100% | -0.29% | ||
| LRCX - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | +0.68% | ||
| KLAC - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | -1.28% | ||
| AMAT - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | +1.88% | ||
| FORM - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | +2.39% | ||
| VECO - ARM | 66% Closely correlated | +2.95% | ||
More | ||||
NVMI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVMI has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NVMI jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVMI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVMI | 100% | +0.94% | ||
| LRCX - NVMI | 78% Closely correlated | +0.68% | ||
| KLAC - NVMI | 78% Closely correlated | -1.28% | ||
| CAMT - NVMI | 76% Closely correlated | +1.03% | ||
| AMAT - NVMI | 74% Closely correlated | +1.88% | ||
| ASML - NVMI | 69% Closely correlated | -1.65% | ||
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