BEKE vs COMP

Key Takeaways

• Compass (COMP) reported record Q4 2025 revenue of $1.70 billion, up 23.1% YoY, with GAAP net loss of $42.6 million.
• KE Holdings (BEKE) posted Q4 2025 net revenues of RMB22.2 billion ($3.2 billion), down 28.7% YoY, with net income of RMB82 million ($12 million).
• Both firms operate in housing services; COMP showed U.S. market strength via acquisitions, while BEKE faced China market headwinds but grew rental revenues 18.1% in Q4.
• COMP's full-year revenue hit $7.0 billion (record), with $217 million operating cash flow; BEKE's FY2025 net revenues rose 1.2% to RMB94.6 billion.
• BEKE announced a $0.276 per ADS final dividend and repurchased $921 million in shares.
• COMP guided Q1 2026 revenue at $2.55-$2.75 billion, signaling continued growth.

Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters

Recent earnings from Compass and KE Holdings underscore the divergent dynamics in global real estate platforms. Both companies facilitate housing transactions but operate in distinct markets: COMP in the U.S. with agent-centric tech tools, and BEKE (Beike) in China via integrated online-offline services. Comparing their Q4 2025 results reveals resilience amid housing market volatility, with COMP benefiting from acquisitions like Anywhere Real Estate and BEKE expanding rentals. Investors track these for insights into transaction volumes, diversification, and profitability paths in cyclical sectors.

KE Holdings Focus

KE Holdings released Q4 and FY2025 results on March 16, 2026, for the period ended December 31, 2025. Net revenues fell 28.7% YoY to RMB22.2 billion ($3.2 billion), driven by declines in existing home (down 39.0%) and new home (down 44.5%) services amid a high base and softer GTV of RMB724.1 billion (down 36.7%). Home rental revenues rose 18.1% to RMB5.4 billion, supported by Carefree Rent expansion. Gross margin dipped to 21.4%. Net income was RMB82 million ($12 million), or RMB0.08 ($0.01) per ADS; adjusted net income fell 61.5% to RMB517 million. FY2025 net revenues grew 1.2% to RMB94.6 billion ($13.5 billion), with net income of RMB2,991 million ($428 million). The board approved a final dividend of $0.276 per ADS (aggregate ~$0.3 billion) and noted $921 million in share repurchases.

Compass Context

Compass reported Q4 and FY2025 results on February 26, 2026, for the period ended December 31, 2025. Revenue hit a record $1.70 billion, up 23.1% YoY (organic +11.3%), fueled by 19.7% transaction growth to 60,328 versus market +0.7%. GTV reached $65.6 billion (+21.6% YoY; organic +11.3%). GAAP net loss widened slightly to $42.6 million from $40.5 million, reflecting $10.6 million merger costs and $57.5 million stock-based compensation. Adjusted EBITDA surged to $58.3 million from $16.7 million. Operating cash flow rose 49% to $45.3 million. FY2025 revenue was a record $7.0 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $293.4 million and $217 million operating cash flow. Principal agents grew 19.4% to 21,190. Q1 2026 guidance: revenue $2.55-$2.75 billion; adjusted EBITDA $15-$35 million.

Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison

Compass demonstrated robust U.S. growth with record revenue and cash flow, outperforming the market via platform tools and acquisitions contributing 11.8% to Q4 revenue. KE Holdings faced China-specific pressures, with GTV and core transaction revenues declining sharply, though diversification into rentals provided uplift and FY revenues edged higher. Profitability metrics favor COMP's adjusted EBITDA expansion versus BEKE's margin contraction. Risks include U.S. interest rates for COMP and China policy shifts for BEKE; sentiment leans positive on COMP's momentum and BEKE's shareholder returns.

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Tickeron AI Verdict

Tickeron AI favors COMP (65% probability) over the next 6-12 months, citing superior revenue growth, cash generation, and U.S. market outperformance despite GAAP losses. BEKE offers stability via dividends but trails on earnings quality amid China slowdowns.

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