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COST vs KDP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Costco Wholesale (COST) vs. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- COST has shown stronger year-to-date gains of around 17%, outperforming KDP's approximately 9% rise amid recent market volatility.
- COST boasts a larger market presence with superior long-term stability, while KDP benefits from recent earnings beats and acquisition-driven growth catalysts.
- Both stocks offer defensive qualities in consumer staples, but COST's membership model drives consistent revenue, contrasting KDP's beverage portfolio expansion.
- KDP provides a higher dividend yield near 3%, appealing to income-focused investors, compared to COST's 0.5%.
- Recent momentum favors COST with analyst buy ratings and expansion plans, while KDP eyes double-digit EPS growth in 2026.
Introduction
Costco Wholesale (COST) and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) represent distinct facets of the consumer staples sector, with COST dominating membership-based warehouse retailing and KDP leading in beverages. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, growth drivers, and market positioning in the current environment of economic uncertainty and shifting consumer preferences. Traders seeking defensive plays with growth potential, as well as long-term investors evaluating relative performance in staples, will find insights into momentum, valuation trade-offs, and sector exposure here.
COST Overview and Recent Performance
Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) operates a global chain of membership warehouses offering bulk goods across groceries, electronics, and more. In recent market activity, COST shares have demonstrated resilience, posting year-to-date gains of about 17% and trading around $1,010, supported by strong membership growth and plans for 30 new locations annually. Sentiment has been bolstered by effective cost management, with gross margins at 12.88% in recent quarters, and analyst upgrades citing pricing power and customer loyalty amid volatility. The stock's low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19 underscores financial stability, though high P/E near 48 reflects premium valuation driven by consistent outperformance versus broader indices.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) is a leading North American beverage company with over 125 brands spanning soft drinks, coffee, and more. Recent weeks have seen KDP shares rise around 10% monthly, trading near $30, fueled by Q4 earnings beats with 10.5% sales growth and raised 2026 guidance to $25.9-26.4 billion. The $18 billion JDE Peet's acquisition and double-digit EPS outlook have lifted sentiment, despite coffee cost pressures. With a P/E around 20 and dividend yield over 3%, KDP appeals for value, though year-to-date returns trail at 9% amid broader underperformance over one year.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
COST and KDP both anchor consumer staples but diverge in models: COST's recurring memberships yield high-volume stability (beta ~1.0), while KDP's brand portfolio drives volume/mix growth (beta ~0.4). Growth for COST stems from expansions and tariffs navigation; KDP from acquisitions like JDE Peet's. Recent momentum favors COST (YTD +17% vs. +9%), but KDP offers lower P/E (20x vs. 48x) and higher yield (3% vs. 0.5%). Risks include retail competition for COST and commodity costs for KDP; sentiment leans positive for both amid staples resilience.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors COST due to its trend consistency, YTD outperformance, membership-driven stability, and expansion catalysts positioning it strongly in defensive retail. While KDP shows promise with earnings momentum and acquisitions, COST's relative strength offers higher probabilistic upside in volatile conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is COST is a Buy and KDP is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
COST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileKDP’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- COST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
COST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KDP’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- COST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KDP’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
COST (@Discount Stores) experienced а -1.32% price change this week, while KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price change was -0.55% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was -1.76%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.42%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.81%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was +0.91%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.73%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1476.04%.
Reported Earning Dates
COST is expected to report earnings on Jul 29, 2026.
KDP is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (-1.76% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (+0.91% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
| COST | KDP | COST / KDP | |
| Capitalization | 443B | 39.1B | 1,133% |
| EBITDA | 14.1B | 4.05B | 348% |
| Gain YTD | 16.229 | 4.260 | 381% |
| P/E Ratio | 51.97 | 21.27 | 244% |
| Revenue | 286B | 16.9B | 1,692% |
| Total Cash | 18.2B | 898M | 2,027% |
| Total Debt | 8.17B | 25.7B | 32% |
COST | KDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 70 | 13 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 29 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 13 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 33 | 78 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KDP's Valuation (29) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is somewhat better than the same rating for COST (94) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that KDP’s stock grew somewhat faster than COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that COST’s stock grew significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
COST's SMR Rating (33) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (78) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that COST’s stock grew somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
KDP's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as COST (55) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that KDP’s stock grew similarly to COST’s over the last 12 months.
COST's P/E Growth Rating (62) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as KDP (81) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that COST’s stock grew similarly to KDP’s over the last 12 months.
| COST | KDP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 43% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 45% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 43% | 2 days ago 48% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 63% | 13 days ago 49% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 6 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 39% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 38% |
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COST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, COST has been loosely correlated with WMT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if COST jumps, then WMT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To COST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COST | 100% | -0.92% | ||
| WMT - COST | 57% Loosely correlated | -2.18% | ||
| BJ - COST | 45% Loosely correlated | -2.00% | ||
| PSMT - COST | 28% Poorly correlated | -0.81% | ||
| TGT - COST | 23% Poorly correlated | -5.44% | ||
| DLMAF - COST | 20% Poorly correlated | N/A | ||
More | ||||
KDP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KDP has been loosely correlated with PEP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KDP jumps, then PEP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KDP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KDP | 100% | -0.42% | ||
| PEP - KDP | 47% Loosely correlated | -3.37% | ||
| KO - KDP | 46% Loosely correlated | +0.31% | ||
| FIZZ - KDP | 45% Loosely correlated | -1.59% | ||
| MNST - KDP | 32% Poorly correlated | +0.14% | ||
| CCEP - KDP | 26% Poorly correlated | -1.18% | ||
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