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DEO vs PEP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Diageo (DEO) vs. PepsiCo (PEP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DEO shares have declined sharply in recent weeks amid dividend cuts and weak U.S. spirits demand, down over 15% following first-half fiscal 2026 earnings showing a 2.8% organic sales drop.
- PEP has shown relative strength with YTD gains of about 14%, supported by a $10 billion buyback announcement, snack price adjustments, and steady dividend growth.
- Both consumer staples offer defensive appeal, but PEP's diversified beverages and snacks portfolio provides broader sector exposure compared to DEO's alcohol focus.
- DEO trades at a lower P/E ratio around 19x versus PEP's 27x, with a higher dividend yield near 5% amid recent cuts.
- Recent market sentiment favors PEP for stability, while DEO faces headwinds from U.S. consumer pressures and China softness.
- Tickeron's AI models highlight PEP's superior trend consistency in the current environment.
Introduction
This stock comparison between DEO and PEP examines two consumer staples giants amid shifting market dynamics. Diageo, a leading spirits producer, and PepsiCo, a diversified beverages and snacks powerhouse, appeal to investors seeking defensive positions with income potential. Traders focused on relative performance may note their contrasting recent trajectories, influenced by consumer spending trends, pricing strategies, and sector-specific catalysts. This analysis draws on recent financial data and market positioning to inform decisions in volatile conditions.
DEO Overview and Recent Performance
Diageo plc (DEO), the world's largest premium spirits company, owns iconic brands like Johnnie Walker, Guinness, and Smirnoff. Its business spans beer, wine, and spirits, with heavy exposure to North America and emerging markets. Recent market activity has pressured DEO shares, which have fallen sharply, hitting 52-week lows near $80.79. First-half fiscal 2026 results revealed a 4% reported sales decline to $10.5 billion and 2.8% organic net sales drop, driven by U.S. spirits weakness and China impacts. A dividend cut to 20 cents per share, alongside lowered guidance under new CEO Dave Lewis, dented sentiment. Plant closures and new whisky launches aim to streamline operations, but ongoing disposable income pressures in key markets have weighed on performance and valuation.
PEP Overview and Recent Performance
PepsiCo Inc. (PEP) operates a vast portfolio including Pepsi, Gatorade, Lay's, and Quaker, generating revenue across beverages and convenient foods globally. Recent weeks have seen PEP maintain positive momentum, with YTD returns around 14% outpacing broader indices. Shares trade near $164, supported by strategic moves like up to 15% snack price cuts for affordability, a $10 billion share buyback, and a 4% dividend increase to $1.423 per share. Q4 earnings beat expectations, signaling turnaround progress amid GLP-1 drug influences on consumer habits. North American strength and international diversification have bolstered relative performance, though short-term volatility persists from sector peers' guidance cuts.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
DEO and PEP both anchor consumer staples, but diverge in business models: DEO's premium alcohol focus contrasts PEP's balanced beverages-snacks mix, offering PEP greater diversification against alcohol-specific risks like tariffs or health trends. Growth drivers differ—PEP leverages volume recovery via pricing flexibility and buybacks, while DEO contends with volume declines in spirits. Recent momentum favors PEP with positive YTD gains versus DEO's losses. Risk factors include DEO's higher U.S./China exposure amid income squeezes, while PEP faces snack competition. Market sentiment tilts toward PEP's stability, though DEO's lower valuation presents value trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors PEP over DEO, based on stronger trend consistency, positive YTD momentum, and proactive catalysts like buybacks and pricing adjustments amid defensive sector positioning. PEP exhibits higher stability and relative outperformance, while DEO lags due to sales weakness and guidance revisions. This probabilistic edge reflects observable market data rather than guarantees.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DEO is a Hold and PEP is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DEO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whilePEP’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- DEO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PEP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DEO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PEP’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DEO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PEP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DEO (@Beverages: Alcoholic) experienced а -3.42% price change this week, while PEP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price change was -3.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Alcoholic industry was -2.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was -11.64%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was -3.11%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.76%, and the average quarterly price growth was +110684.66%.
Reported Earning Dates
DEO is expected to report earnings on Aug 06, 2026.
PEP is expected to report earnings on Jul 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Alcoholic (-2.04% weekly)The alcoholic beverage market includes beer, wine, and spirits. From $230 billion in 2015, the industry has grown to around $250 billion by 2019. In recent years, alcoholic beverage makers have been looking to expand distribution and purchase channels, such as through online stores (e.g. e-commerce platform Drizly) and convenience stores. Anheuser-Busch In Bev and Diageo are major global alcoholic beverage companies, while U.S.-owned companies include Constellation Brands and Brown-Forman Corp. among several others.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (-3.11% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
| DEO | PEP | DEO / PEP | |
| Capitalization | 45.1B | 204B | 22% |
| EBITDA | 6.39B | 16.3B | 39% |
| Gain YTD | -4.353 | 4.830 | -90% |
| P/E Ratio | 18.87 | 23.41 | 81% |
| Revenue | 19.8B | 95.4B | 21% |
| Total Cash | 905M | 10.8B | 8% |
| Total Debt | 23.5B | 52.7B | 45% |
DEO | PEP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 55 | 4 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 20 Undervalued | 24 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 71 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 98 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DEO's Valuation (20) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry is in the same range as PEP (24) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that DEO’s stock grew similarly to PEP’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's Profit vs Risk Rating (71) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as DEO (100) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that PEP’s stock grew similarly to DEO’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's SMR Rating (21) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is significantly better than the same rating for DEO (98) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that PEP’s stock grew significantly faster than DEO’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's Price Growth Rating (57) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as DEO (63) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that PEP’s stock grew similarly to DEO’s over the last 12 months.
PEP's P/E Growth Rating (28) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as DEO (45) in the Beverages Alcoholic industry. This means that PEP’s stock grew similarly to DEO’s over the last 12 months.
| DEO | PEP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 45% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 53% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 41% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 41% | 9 days ago 40% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 33% | 2 days ago 33% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
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| VCSH | 78.79 | -0.18 | -0.23% |
| Vanguard Short-Term Corporate Bond ETF | |||
| CVLC | 91.59 | -1.15 | -1.24% |
| Calvert US Large-Cp Cor Rspnb ETF | |||
| GTOP | 46.55 | -0.71 | -1.50% |
| Goldman Sachs Technology Opports ETF | |||
| BOUT | 45.88 | -1.09 | -2.32% |
| CapForce IBD® Breakout Opportunities ETF | |||
| SPTE | 44.78 | -1.16 | -2.53% |
| SP Funds S&P Global Technology ETF | |||
DEO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DEO has been closely correlated with PRNDY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DEO jumps, then PRNDY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DEO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEO | 100% | +1.38% | ||
| PRNDY - DEO | 69% Closely correlated | +0.28% | ||
| MGPI - DEO | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.53% | ||
| BUD - DEO | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.22% | ||
| STZ - DEO | 54% Loosely correlated | +1.24% | ||
| REMYY - DEO | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.87% | ||
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