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DG vs HSY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Dollar General (DG) vs. The Hershey Company (HSY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DG shares have surged approximately 74-88% over the past year, with YTD gains around 9%, driven by strong Q4 fiscal 2025 results including 5.9% net sales growth and 4.3% same-store sales increase.
- HSY has delivered more modest 1-year returns of 17-25% and robust YTD performance near 20%, supported by resilient demand in confectionery and salty snacks amid earnings growth optimism.
- Recent market activity shows DG with higher volatility but superior momentum, while HSY offers greater stability as a consumer staples play with a 2.7% dividend yield.
- DG's Q4 EPS beat estimates significantly at $1.93 versus $1.61 expected, contrasting HSY's steady analyst upgrades in earnings estimates by up to 30% for the current year.
- Both stocks benefit from defensive sector exposure, but DG faces retail competition pressures, while HSY navigates cocoa cost headwinds with pricing power.
Introduction
This stock comparison between DG and HSY examines two defensive consumer-facing companies: a discount retailer serving value-conscious shoppers and a confectionery giant with iconic brands. Investors seeking relative performance insights in a volatile market—marked by geopolitical tensions, oil price swings, and shifting consumer spending—may find value here. Traders focused on momentum, stability, and sector rotations will appreciate the contrasts in recent price behavior, earnings trajectories, and market positioning. By analyzing objective metrics like sales growth, EPS surprises, and YTD returns, this review aids informed comparisons without speculation.
DG Overview and Recent Performance
Dollar General (DG), a leading U.S. discount retailer with over 20,000 small-format stores, targets rural and suburban markets with everyday essentials, consumables, and seasonal goods. In recent market activity, DG shares have demonstrated strong momentum, posting 1-year gains of 74-88% and YTD advances around 9%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500. The stock recently traded near $145, reflecting a pullback from 52-week highs above $158 amid broader retail sector pressures. Key influences include robust Q4 fiscal 2025 results, with net sales up 5.9% to $10.9 billion, same-store sales rising 4.3%, and EPS of $1.93 beating consensus by $0.32. Gross margins expanded to 30.4%, driven by traffic gains and inventory management, though cautious full-year guidance tempered enthusiasm. Sentiment has shifted positively on earnings beats and store traffic data showing mid-to-high single-digit gains, despite competition and economic headwinds.
HSY Overview and Recent Performance
The Hershey Company (HSY) dominates the U.S. chocolate market with brands like Hershey's, Reese's, and expanding salty snacks via acquisitions like LesserEvil. Operating in the stable consumer staples sector, HSY shares have shown resilience, with 1-year returns of 17-25% and YTD gains approaching 20%, outperforming peers amid market dips. Trading around $218 recently, the stock pulled back from highs near $239, reflecting short-term declines of 3-6% over recent weeks. Performance drivers include strong salty snacks growth, pricing to offset cocoa inflation, and analyst upgrades lifting current-year EPS estimates by 18-30%. Q4 fiscal 2025 previews highlighted resilient demand and above-expectation sales forecasts, with full-year revenue up 4.4% to $11.7 billion. Sentiment remains constructive on brand strength and dividend appeal, though volatility from commodity costs persists.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
DG and HSY both anchor defensive portfolios but diverge in business models: DG's retail footprint emphasizes high-volume, low-price essentials amid value-seeking trends, while HSY leverages branded pricing power in indulgent foods. Growth drivers contrast sharply—DG fuels expansion via store traffic and same-store gains (recently +4.3%), versus HSY's portfolio diversification into salty snacks. Recent momentum favors DG with explosive 74%+ 1-year returns, but HSY exhibits lower beta (0.11) for stability. Risk factors include DG's sensitivity to discretionary spending cuts and competition, against HSY's commodity exposure. Sector-wise, both thrive in staples, yet DG ties to cyclical retail, HSY to recession-resistant brands. Market sentiment leans bullish on DG's earnings beats, with HSY buoyed by dividends.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors DG based on superior trend consistency, with 74%+ 1-year gains, recent Q4 beats, and positive same-store momentum signaling stronger relative positioning amid retail recovery. HSY trails probabilistically due to muted recent upside and commodity pressures, despite stability advantages. This edge holds in observable volatility and catalyst-driven environments, though shifts could occur with earnings updates.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DG is a Hold and HSY is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DG’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileHSY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- HSY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HSY’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- HSY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
DG (@Discount Stores) experienced а -2.89% price change this week, while HSY (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was -1.88% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was -0.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.75%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was +1.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.63%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.29%.
Reported Earning Dates
DG is expected to report earnings on May 21, 2026.
HSY is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (-0.78% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (+1.04% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
| DG | HSY | DG / HSY | |
| Capitalization | 25.5B | 41B | 62% |
| EBITDA | 3.24B | 1.94B | 167% |
| Gain YTD | -12.047 | 11.901 | -101% |
| P/E Ratio | 16.89 | 46.62 | 36% |
| Revenue | 42.7B | 11.7B | 365% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 926M | - |
| Total Debt | 15.7B | 5.74B | 274% |
DG | HSY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 5 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 31 Undervalued | 36 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 65 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 45 | 45 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 7 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DG's Valuation (31) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as HSY (36) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry. This means that DG’s stock grew similarly to HSY’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's Profit vs Risk Rating (65) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DG (100) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that HSY’s stock grew somewhat faster than DG’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's SMR Rating (45) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as DG (45) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that HSY’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as DG (59) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that HSY’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DG (62) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that HSY’s stock grew somewhat faster than DG’s over the last 12 months.
| DG | HSY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 3 days ago 45% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 6 days ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 55% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 11 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 57% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| CWVX | 32.66 | 5.84 | +21.77% |
| Tradr 2X Long CRWV Daily ETF | |||
| CTEX | 35.88 | 0.63 | +1.79% |
| ProShares S&P Kensho Cleantech ETF | |||
| FFLG | 30.08 | 0.28 | +0.96% |
| Fidelity Fundamental Large Cap Gr ETF | |||
| JAVA | 73.88 | -0.55 | -0.74% |
| JPMorgan Active Value ETF | |||
| FITE | 88.64 | -1.02 | -1.13% |
| Stt Strt® SPDR® S&PKenshoFutSecETF | |||
DG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DG has been loosely correlated with DLTR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 43% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if DG jumps, then DLTR could also see price increases.
HSY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HSY has been loosely correlated with KHC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HSY jumps, then KHC could also see price increases.