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DG vs KDP
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Dollar General (DG) vs. Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DG has delivered superior recent momentum, with shares up over 115% in the past year and 18% YTD, far outpacing the S&P 500.
- KDP shows stability in the beverage sector, with Q4 sales growth of 10.5% and 2026 guidance for low double-digit EPS expansion amid a major acquisition.
- Valuation contrasts: DG's forward P/E around 22 suggests growth pricing, while KDP's at 14 appears more attractive for value-oriented investors.
- Recent catalysts include DG's potential tariff refunds and analyst price target hikes to $165-$168, boosting sentiment.
- KDP benefits from an $18 billion JDE Peet's deal, targeting sales of $25.9-$26.4 billion in 2026, though integration risks persist.
- Market caps stand at $34B for DG and $41B for KDP, reflecting discount retail vs. consumer staples exposure.
Introduction
Dollar General (DG) and Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) represent distinct consumer-facing sectors: discount retailing and beverages. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, growth drivers, and market positioning amid shifting consumer trends and economic pressures. Traders seeking momentum plays may eye DG's rally, while investors favoring defensive staples with yield could prefer KDP. Key metrics like relative returns, valuations, and catalysts provide insights into their stock comparison and potential trade-offs in the current environment.
DG Overview and Recent Performance
Dollar General Corporation (DG), a leading U.S. discount retailer with over 20,000 stores, focuses on consumables, seasonal goods, and private-label products for value-conscious shoppers. In recent market activity, DG shares have surged, gaining approximately 6% over the past month, 40% in three months, 18% YTD, and over 115% in the last year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 17% annual gain. Trading around $156 with a $34 billion market cap and trailing P/E of 27, the stock reflects optimism from potential tariff refunds following a Supreme Court ruling and analyst upgrades lifting targets to $165-$168. Sentiment has shifted positively on turnaround momentum and non-consumables sales mix improvement, though valuation debates persist with models showing 10-14% undervaluation or slight overvaluation. Upcoming Q4 earnings on March 12 add anticipation.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) is a major beverage company offering soft drinks, coffee systems, and teas, with strong brands like Dr Pepper and Keurig brewers. Recent weeks have seen modest gains, up about 10% in the past month and 9% YTD, though down 7-9% over the past year versus broader market advances. Shares trade near $30 with a $41 billion market cap and trailing P/E of 26, supported by Q4 2025 results showing 10.5% net sales growth to $4.5 billion, beating estimates, driven by U.S. refreshment beverages and pricing. Guidance for 2026 projects $25.9-$26.4 billion in sales and low double-digit EPS growth, bolstered by the pending $18 billion JDE Peet's acquisition to split into coffee and beverage entities. Positive analyst reactions highlight share gains, though coffee cost pressures and integration loom as risks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
DG and KDP diverge in business models: DG's discount retail thrives on low-income consumer traffic and store expansion, while KDP leverages branded beverages with pricing power and recurring pod sales. Growth drivers contrast DG's same-store sales recovery and remodels against KDP's acquisition-fueled international push. Recent momentum favors DG with triple-digit yearly gains versus KDP's single-digit YTD rise. Risk factors include DG's sensitivity to inflation and competition from e-commerce, and KDP's commodity exposure plus deal execution. Sector-wise, retail offers cyclical upside, staples defensive stability with KDP's 3% yield. Sentiment tilts bullish on DG via targets, balanced for KDP on earnings beats.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors DG due to stronger trend consistency, superior relative performance with 115% one-year gains, and near-term catalysts like tariff benefits and earnings momentum. While KDP exhibits stability and acquisition upside, DG's positioning suggests higher probability of continued outperformance in the prevailing retail recovery environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DG is a Hold and KDP is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileKDP’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while KDP’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KDP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DG (@Discount Stores) experienced а -9.63% price change this week, while KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) price change was +2.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was -2.72%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.65%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.91%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was -2.05%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.54%, and the average quarterly price growth was +117462.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
DG is expected to report earnings on Jun 02, 2026.
KDP is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Discount Stores (-2.72% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (-2.05% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
| DG | KDP | DG / KDP | |
| Capitalization | 22.5B | 39.4B | 57% |
| EBITDA | 3.24B | 4.05B | 80% |
| Gain YTD | -22.193 | 5.677 | -391% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.95 | 21.43 | 70% |
| Revenue | 42.7B | 16.9B | 253% |
| Total Cash | 1.14B | 898M | 127% |
| Total Debt | 15.7B | 25.7B | 61% |
DG | KDP | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 16 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 34 Fair valued | 30 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 47 | 78 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 63 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 68 | 80 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KDP's Valuation (30) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as DG (34) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that KDP’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
KDP's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as DG (100) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that KDP’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
DG's SMR Rating (47) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as KDP (78) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that DG’s stock grew similarly to KDP’s over the last 12 months.
KDP's Price Growth Rating (49) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as DG (63) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that KDP’s stock grew similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
DG's P/E Growth Rating (68) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as KDP (80) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that DG’s stock grew similarly to KDP’s over the last 12 months.
| DG | KDP | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 40% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 5 days ago 45% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 46% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 9 days ago 46% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 39% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 44% | 2 days ago 34% |
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