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EL vs HSY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Estée Lauder (EL) vs. Hershey (HSY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- EL has shown recovery momentum with YTD gains around 8-10%, but faces headwinds from downgrades, weak forecasts, and tariff pressures estimated at $100 million.
- HSY demonstrates stronger recent performance, with YTD returns exceeding 24% and shares up over 18% in the past month amid robust sales growth outlook.
- Both consumer staples stocks offer defensive qualities, but HSY's confectionery demand resilience contrasts EL's luxury beauty sector volatility tied to discretionary spending.
- HSY projects 4-5% sales growth and 27-35% EPS rebound in 2026, while EL navigates turnaround efforts with raised but cautious guidance.
- Market sentiment favors HSY for stability, with positive analyst revisions, over EL's ongoing restructuring challenges.
Introduction
This stock comparison between EL (The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.) and HSY (The Hershey Company) examines two prominent consumer defensive names in prestige beauty and confectionery. Both operate in sectors sensitive to consumer trends but differ in cyclicality: beauty tied to premium spending and snacks to everyday indulgence. Traders seeking relative performance insights and investors eyeing stability in volatile markets will find value here, particularly amid recent earnings cycles highlighting growth trajectories, margin dynamics, and macroeconomic influences like tariffs and demand shifts.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) is a global leader in prestige beauty, manufacturing and marketing skincare, makeup, fragrance, and haircare under brands like Estée Lauder, Clinique, La Mer, and Tom Ford. In recent market activity, EL shares have exhibited volatility, rebounding with YTD gains of approximately 8-10% from multi-year lows, driven by fiscal 2026 Q2 results showing higher gross margins and raised full-year guidance despite sluggish Americas demand. Sentiment has been pressured by an HSBC downgrade citing organic sales concerns, a lawsuit against Walmart over counterfeits, and $100 million in anticipated tariff headwinds, contributing to a roughly 23% plunge post-earnings in early February. The "Beauty Reimagined" turnaround, including workforce reductions of 5,800-7,000, aims to restore growth, but near-term challenges persist in travel retail and China exposure.
HSY Overview and Recent Performance
The Hershey Company (HSY) manufactures confectionery, salty snacks, and pantry staples, iconic for Hershey's chocolate, Reese's, and brands like SkinnyPop via recent acquisitions. Recent weeks have seen robust HSY momentum, with shares surging over 18% in the past month and YTD returns topping 24%, outpacing broader indices. Q4 2025 results beat expectations with 7% net sales growth to $3.09 billion, fueled by North America Confectionery strength and price realization, alongside a raised dividend. Guidance for 2026 projects 4-5% sales growth and 30-35% adjusted EPS rebound to $7.77-$8.19, supported by resilient demand despite ingredient scrutiny. Positive analyst revisions underscore favorable positioning in snacks amid economic uncertainty.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
EL and HSY both anchor consumer staples but diverge in business models: EL's prestige beauty relies on aspirational, cyclical drivers like travel retail recovery and innovation in skincare, vulnerable to premium spending pullbacks; HSY's essential confectionery and snacks benefit from staple-like pricing power and seasonal demand. Growth contrasts sharply—HSY eyes 4-5% sales expansion via volume and acquisitions like LesserEvil, while EL grapples with organic hurdles amid restructuring. Recent momentum favors HSY (24%+ YTD vs. EL's 8-10%), with lower risk from litigation/tariffs for EL versus HSY's input cost stability. Sentiment tilts toward HSY's EPS upside, though both offer sector defense in uncertain positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently leans toward HSY based on superior trend consistency, with 24%+ YTD gains, stronger earnings beats, and projected 30%+ EPS growth amid resilient snack demand. EL's recovery shows promise via margin gains, but elevated risks from tariffs and downgrades temper its relative positioning. Probabilistic edge favors HSY for stability and catalysts in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is EL is a Hold and HSY is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileHSY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- EL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- HSY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HSY’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- HSY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
EL (@Household/Personal Care) experienced а -5.23% price change this week, while HSY (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was +1.74% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was -2.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.57%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.38%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was +1.19%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.23%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.57%.
Reported Earning Dates
EL is expected to report earnings on Aug 19, 2026.
HSY is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Household/Personal Care (-2.81% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (+1.19% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
| EL | HSY | EL / HSY | |
| Capitalization | 29.2B | 38.6B | 76% |
| EBITDA | 1.32B | 2.23B | 59% |
| Gain YTD | -22.571 | 5.270 | -428% |
| P/E Ratio | 147.80 | 35.44 | 417% |
| Revenue | 14.8B | 12B | 123% |
| Total Cash | 3.13B | 877M | 356% |
| Total Debt | 9.3B | 5.68B | 164% |
EL | HSY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 13 | 9 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 57 Fair valued | 36 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 74 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 41 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 12 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HSY's Valuation (36) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as EL (57) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that HSY’s stock grew similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's Profit vs Risk Rating (74) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that HSY’s stock grew similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's SMR Rating (41) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is somewhat better than the same rating for EL (92) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that HSY’s stock grew somewhat faster than EL’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as EL (54) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that HSY’s stock grew similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is in the same range as EL (27) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that HSY’s stock grew similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
| EL | HSY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 44% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 12 days ago 57% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 57% |
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HSY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HSY has been loosely correlated with KHC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HSY jumps, then KHC could also see price increases.