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EL vs MDLZ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Estée Lauder (EL) vs. Mondelez (MDLZ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- EL has delivered approximately 33% returns over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500's 21%, though recent volatility persists due to weak forecasts.
- MDLZ shows YTD gains of around 5-6%, lagging its one-year decline of 14%, amid challenges from cocoa prices and cautious growth outlooks.
- EL, in prestige beauty, faces cyclical demand risks but benefits from skincare strength and India expansion via Forest Essentials acquisition.
- MDLZ, a consumer staples snacking leader, offers higher dividend yield near 3% and defensive positioning, with larger market cap of $77B vs. EL's $36B.
- Relative performance highlights EL's momentum in recent market activity, while MDLZ provides stability in volatile conditions.
- Tickeron's AI tools reveal contrasting sector exposures, with beauty showing rebound potential and snacks emphasizing consistent demand.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines EL (The Estée Lauder Companies Inc.), a leader in prestige beauty products, and MDLZ (Mondelez International, Inc.), a global snacking powerhouse. Both operate in consumer-facing sectors but differ in cyclicality: beauty tied to discretionary spending and snacks to essential indulgence. Traders seeking momentum versus stability, or investors eyeing relative performance in consumer staples and household products, will find value here. Recent market activity underscores contrasts in price behavior, sentiment, and growth drivers amid economic shifts.
EL Overview and Recent Performance
The Estée Lauder Companies Inc. (EL) manufactures and markets prestige skincare, makeup, fragrance, and hair care products under brands like Estée Lauder, Clinique, La Mer, and Jo Malone. Operating in over 150 countries, it generates significant revenue from Asia-Pacific and travel retail. In recent market activity, EL shares have shown volatility, trading around $94 with YTD returns near 10% and 33% over the past year, outperforming the S&P 500. Key influences include Q2 fiscal 2026 earnings that beat expectations on EPS and revenue, though full-year guidance disappointed, leading to sharp declines. Strategic moves like acquiring Forest Essentials bolster India presence, while litigation against counterfeiters and gross margin expansion to 76.5% support sentiment. Analysts maintain a Moderate Buy rating, citing intrinsic value estimates around $98 per share amid skincare demand resilience.
MDLZ Overview and Recent Performance
Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) is a leading snacking company with brands like Oreo, Cadbury, Milka, and Trident, spanning biscuits, chocolate, gum, and beverages across 150+ countries. It derives about one-third of revenue from emerging markets and North America. Recently, MDLZ shares hover near $57, with YTD gains of 5-6% but a 14% one-year decline, underperforming the S&P 500. Performance reflects Q4 2025 revenue growth from pricing amid high cocoa costs, though volume pressures and cautious 2026 forecasts weigh on momentum. Investments in Toblerone production and dividend declarations signal stability, with mixed analyst views on growth. Elevated input costs and acquisition hurdles have tempered sentiment in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
EL and MDLZ contrast sharply in business models: EL's prestige beauty relies on premium branding and innovation in skincare/makeup, exposing it to discretionary spending cycles, while MDLZ's snacking portfolio benefits from everyday demand in biscuits/chocolate. Growth drivers differ—EL from emerging market expansions like India, MDLZ from pricing power against commodity costs. Recent momentum favors EL's 33% annual gains versus MDLZ's decline, but MDLZ offers lower risk via staples stability and ~3% yield. EL trades at higher P/E amid losses, MDLZ at 31x with $77B cap. Sentiment tilts toward EL recovery catalysts, MDLZ defensive trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward EL based on stronger trend consistency over the past year, relative outperformance against the S&P 500, and positioning for skincare-led recovery amid acquisition catalysts. While MDLZ exhibits greater stability, EL shows higher probabilistic upside in current market conditions, though volatility remains a factor.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is EL is a Hold and MDLZ is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
EL’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileMDLZ’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- EL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- MDLZ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
EL’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MDLZ’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- EL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MDLZ’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
EL (@Household/Personal Care) experienced а +4.86% price change this week, while MDLZ (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was -2.97% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Household/Personal Care industry was +0.96%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.44%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was -2.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.01%.
Reported Earning Dates
EL is expected to report earnings on May 01, 2026.
MDLZ is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Household/Personal Care (+0.96% weekly)Household/Personal Care companies sell products for home cleaning and/or personal hygiene and grooming purposes. Products of this industry include detergents, shampoos, soaps, cosmetics, fabric conditioners and infant care fragrances. Procter & Gamble, Unilever, Estee Lauder and Colgate-Palmolive are some of the biggest names in the business. A lot of the products become a necessary part of people’s daily routine, and therefore the industry is relatively less vulnerable to macroeconomic downturns. At the same time, product quality, consumer safety, and ease of use are extremely critical factors for a company to survive competition and earn recognition in this industry.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (-2.68% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
| EL | MDLZ | EL / MDLZ | |
| Capitalization | 27.6B | 73.5B | 38% |
| EBITDA | 1.39B | 4.97B | 28% |
| Gain YTD | -27.006 | 7.274 | -371% |
| P/E Ratio | 147.80 | 30.29 | 488% |
| Revenue | 14.7B | 38.5B | 38% |
| Total Cash | 3.08B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 9.39B | 21.8B | 43% |
EL | MDLZ | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 4 | 15 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 54 Fair valued | 25 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 81 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 91 | 72 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MDLZ's Valuation (25) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as EL (54) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MDLZ’s stock grew similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's Profit vs Risk Rating (81) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as EL (100) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MDLZ’s stock grew similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's SMR Rating (72) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as EL (91) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MDLZ’s stock grew similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's Price Growth Rating (59) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as EL (64) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MDLZ’s stock grew similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
MDLZ's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Food Major Diversified industry is in the same range as EL (36) in the Household Or Personal Care industry. This means that MDLZ’s stock grew similarly to EL’s over the last 12 months.
| EL | MDLZ | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 58% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 74% | 6 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 39% |
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| ESGD | 103.00 | 1.31 | +1.29% |
| iShares ESG Aware MSCI EAFE ETF | |||
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| BondBloxx US Hg Yld Fncl & REIT Str ETF | |||
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| Innovator Russell 2000 Pwr Bffr ETF™ Jul | |||
| GBXC | 27.07 | N/A | N/A |
| Goldman Sachs U.S. Large Cap Buffer 3 ETF | |||
| FYLD | 37.98 | -0.24 | -0.63% |
| Cambria Foreign Shareholder Yield ETF | |||
MDLZ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MDLZ has been loosely correlated with GIS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MDLZ jumps, then GIS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MDLZ | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDLZ | 100% | +0.32% | ||
| GIS - MDLZ | 65% Loosely correlated | +0.51% | ||
| CAG - MDLZ | 59% Loosely correlated | +1.09% | ||
| CPB - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.19% | ||
| KHC - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.53% | ||
| MKC - MDLZ | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.99% | ||
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