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FNV vs GFI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Franco-Nevada (FNV) vs. Gold Fields (GFI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FNV, a leading gold royalty and streaming company, offers lower operational risk with a diversified portfolio, trading at a premium P/E ratio (TTM) of 40.3 compared to GFI's 11.4.
- GFI, a global gold producer, provides higher dividend yield around 5% versus FNV's 0.8%, appealing to income-focused investors.
- Both stocks have benefited from strong gold prices in recent market activity, with GFI showing superior one-year returns near 110% versus FNV's 41%.
- Recent weeks have seen pullbacks in both, with FNV down about 11% over the past month amid broader sector volatility.
- FNV exhibits lower beta (0.89) indicating relative stability, while GFI (beta 0.63) offers value but higher exposure to mining costs.
- Market caps are comparable at approximately $45B for FNV and $40B for GFI, positioning both as large-cap gold sector players.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines FNV (Franco-Nevada Corporation), a premier gold-focused royalty and streaming company, against GFI (Gold Fields Limited), a major global gold producer. Both provide exposure to rising gold prices driven by geopolitical tensions, central bank buying, and monetary policy shifts. Investors seeking leveraged plays on gold without direct mining risks may prefer FNV, while those favoring operational scale and higher yields might eye GFI. Traders analyzing relative performance, valuation, and sector momentum will find this head-to-head review essential for portfolio decisions in the current market environment.
FNV Overview and Recent Performance
Franco-Nevada Corporation (FNV) operates as the world's leading gold-focused royalty and streaming company (royalties provide percentage-of-revenue payments from mines it finances, while streams allow discounted metal purchases). It avoids operational risks like cost inflation or mine disruptions by owning interests in over 400 assets across precious metals, energy, and platinum group metals, with ~80% revenue from gold. The business model delivers high margins and exploration upside without direct mining.
In recent market activity, FNV shares have pulled back around 11% over the past month amid gold sector volatility, following record 2025 results with revenues up 64% to $1.82B on higher GEOs (gold equivalent ounces). Q4 2025 earnings beat estimates with $1.85 adjusted EPS, fueled by strong output from Antamina and South Arturo. Year-to-date gains stand at ~12%, with one-year returns near 41%, supported by sustained gold strength from geopolitical factors and central bank demand. Upcoming Q1 2026 results are anticipated to reflect 34% GEO growth. Sentiment remains positive due to the model's stability, though premium valuations temper short-term momentum.
GFI Overview and Recent Performance
Gold Fields Limited (GFI) is a globally diversified gold producer with operations in Australia, Ghana, South Africa, Peru, and Chile, focusing on underground and open-pit mines. It generates revenue primarily from gold sales, supplemented by copper byproducts, emphasizing low-cost, long-life assets like South Deep and Tarkwa.
Recent weeks have pressured GFI shares, down ~8-14% monthly amid rising costs and sector rotation, despite robust 2025 performance with attributable production up 18% to 2.44 million ounces and headline earnings surging 117%. Net debt-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) improved to 0.26x, enabling special dividends and buybacks totaling ZAR31.85 per share. Year-to-date returns hover around 5-6%, with one-year gains exceeding 100%, reflecting gold's rally. Production strength and attractive forward P/E underpin sentiment, though exposure to operational risks like labor in South Africa and energy costs influences volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
FNV’s royalty/streaming model contrasts sharply with GFI’s producer operations: Franco-Nevada funds mines for passive revenue shares, dodging cost overruns (operating margins ~74%), while Gold Fields bears full extraction risks but controls production scale. Growth drivers differ—FNV via portfolio expansion and GEO additions, GFI through mine optimizations and expansions like Salares Norte.
Recent momentum favors GFI’s 100%+ one-year gains over FNV’s 41%, but both face monthly dips amid gold consolidation. Risk profiles highlight trade-offs: FNV’s beta of 0.89 signals stability with lower volatility, versus GFI’s 0.63 but higher sensitivity to costs/labor. Sector exposure is pure gold for both (~80-90%), though GFI adds copper. Valuations show GFI’s compelling P/E of 11 versus FNV’s 40, with superior yield (5% vs. 0.8%). Market sentiment leans value toward GFI, stability to FNV.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors GFI for its superior relative performance, lower valuation (forward P/E ~8), higher yield, and production leverage amid gold's sustained uptrend. While FNV excels in trend consistency and lower risk via its royalty model, GFI’s catalysts like cost controls and output growth position it probabilistically stronger for near-term outperformance in volatile conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FNV is a Hold and GFI is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FNV’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileGFI’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- FNV’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- GFI’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FNV’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GFI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FNV’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- GFI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
FNV (@Precious Metals) experienced а +5.30% price change this week, while GFI (@Precious Metals) price change was +8.55% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was +4.29%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +12.01%, and the average quarterly price growth was +55.62%.
Reported Earning Dates
FNV is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
GFI is expected to report earnings on Aug 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (+4.29% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
| FNV | GFI | FNV / GFI | |
| Capitalization | 45.9B | 40.7B | 113% |
| EBITDA | 1.45B | 6.34B | 23% |
| Gain YTD | 14.528 | 6.825 | 213% |
| P/E Ratio | 41.15 | 11.50 | 358% |
| Revenue | 1.55B | 8.75B | 18% |
| Total Cash | 788M | 1.78B | 44% |
| Total Debt | 82.6M | 3.22B | 3% |
FNV | GFI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 54 | 55 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 19 Undervalued | 6 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 21 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 74 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GFI's Valuation (6) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (19). This means that GFI’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
GFI's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (29). This means that GFI’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
GFI's SMR Rating (21) in the Precious Metals industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FNV (59). This means that GFI’s stock grew somewhat faster than FNV’s over the last 12 months.
GFI's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (53). This means that GFI’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
FNV's P/E Growth Rating (69) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as GFI (74). This means that FNV’s stock grew similarly to GFI’s over the last 12 months.
| FNV | GFI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 86% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 84% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 81% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 82% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | N/A |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 61% | 6 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 56% |
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FNV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FNV has been closely correlated with AEM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FNV jumps, then AEM could also see price increases.
GFI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GFI has been closely correlated with AU. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GFI jumps, then AU could also see price increases.