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FSLR vs NXPI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? First Solar (FSLR) vs. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FSLR boasts strong YTD gains of 24.28% driven by solar demand, but recent weeks saw pressure from disappointing 2026 guidance and shrinking backlog, leading to analyst downgrades.
- NXPI experienced a 10% monthly decline amid softer Q1 outlook post-Q4 earnings beat, yet analysts project 12.88% EPS growth with focus on automotive and physical AI catalysts.
- FSLR's lower trailing P/E of 13.93 contrasts NXPI's 25.51, reflecting solar sector volatility versus semiconductor stability.
- Both stocks trade below average analyst targets (FSLR at $257, NXPI at $262), signaling potential upside amid sector rotations.
- Market caps differ significantly: FSLR at $21B vs. NXPI at $51B, highlighting scale in semiconductors over renewables.
- Recent sentiment shifts favor NXPI for earnings momentum, while FSLR grapples with policy and pricing risks.
Introduction
This stock comparison between FSLR (First Solar) and NXPI (NXP Semiconductors) examines two distinct sectors: renewable energy and semiconductors. Traders seeking exposure to clean energy growth may eye FSLR, a leader in thin-film solar modules, while investors in tech infrastructure might prefer NXPI's automotive and IoT chips. Amid recent market rotations, relative performance, analyst revisions, and sector catalysts provide key insights for portfolio positioning and short-term trading opportunities in the current environment.
FSLR Overview and Recent Performance
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR) is a leading U.S.-based manufacturer of photovoltaic solar modules using advanced thin-film cadmium telluride technology. The company serves utility-scale projects globally, benefiting from U.S. manufacturing expansions and policy incentives like Section 45X tax credits. In recent market activity, FSLR shares traded around $198, within a 52-week range of $117-$286. YTD performance reached 24%, supported by record 2025 module sales of 17.5 GW, but recent weeks brought declines of over 13% in five days following Q4 earnings. The report showed EPS of $4.84 missing estimates, with 2026 guidance of $4.9B-$5.2B in sales disappointing Wall Street due to backlog shrinkage and pricing pressures. Analyst downgrades from firms like Morgan Stanley and Barclays reflected cooling demand sentiment, though long-term solar growth and a $257 average target persist.
NXPI Overview and Recent Performance
NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) designs and manufactures high-performance mixed-signal semiconductors for automotive, industrial IoT, mobile, and communication infrastructure applications. Headquartered in Eindhoven, Netherlands, it holds strong market share in auto chips for powertrains, infotainment, and radars. Shares recently hovered near $203, in a 52-week range of $148-$256, with YTD gains of 6% and a 1% 1-year return. Recent performance included a 10% monthly drop after Q4 results beat expectations (EPS $3.35 vs. $3.31 estimated, revenue $3.33B), but softer Q1 guidance of $3.05B-$3.25B triggered an 8% selloff. Factors influencing sentiment include robust automotive rebound, physical AI innovations like i.MX 93W processors, and projected 12.88% EPS growth to $2.98. Analysts maintain a positive outlook with a $262 target, viewing dips as buy opportunities despite industrial slowdowns.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
FSLR and NXPI diverge in business models: FSLR focuses on solar hardware amid renewable policy dependence, while NXPI leverages diversified semis exposure to autos (key growth driver) and IoT. Growth contrasts show FSLR's volatile YTD surge versus NXPI's steadier base, though both faced post-earnings pullbacks—FSLR from backlog risks, NXPI from guidance caution. Risk profiles highlight FSLR's beta sensitivity to energy cycles and tax credit expiration versus NXPI's debt load (119% debt/equity) but superior margins (26% operating). Sector-wise, solar battles pricing headwinds, while semis benefit from AI and EV tailwinds. Sentiment tilts toward NXPI's earnings upgrades amid FSLR downgrades.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward NXPI based on trend consistency in automotive recovery, stable EPS growth projections, and lower relative volatility compared to FSLR's backlog and policy uncertainties. With stronger analyst target upside and catalysts like physical AI platforms, NXPI shows higher probability of near-term outperformance in rotating markets, though FSLR retains appeal for solar rebound plays.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FSLR is a Hold and NXPI is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FSLR’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileNXPI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- FSLR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- NXPI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FSLR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NXPI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FSLR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NXPI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
FSLR (@Alternative Power Generation) experienced а -3.92% price change this week, while NXPI (@Semiconductors) price change was +6.41% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Alternative Power Generation industry was +4.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.04%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.74%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +10.22%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +24.75%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.22%.
Reported Earning Dates
FSLR is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
NXPI is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Alternative Power Generation (+4.15% weekly)The alternative power generation industry consists of companies that operate power facilities converting non-conventional forms of energy into electricity. These energy forms are alternatives to fossil fuels, and many of them are derived from natural resources. Alternative energy forms include solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal steam. A major purpose behind using alternative energy – also called ‘clean’ energy - is to address concerns related to the more conventional fossil fuels, such as the latter’s high carbon dioxide emissions which is often considered a factor in global warming. Alternative power generation has been gaining traction in recent years, and could grow further in the future. Large organizations like Google have invested substantially in wind and solar energy-powered electricity. Some of the prominent U.S. companies operating in the alternative power generation industry includes Ormat Technologies, Inc., TerraForm Power, Inc. and NextEra Energy Partners LP.
@Semiconductors (+10.22% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| FSLR | NXPI | FSLR / NXPI | |
| Capitalization | 20.7B | 55.9B | 37% |
| EBITDA | 2.15B | 3.96B | 54% |
| Gain YTD | -26.314 | 2.501 | -1,052% |
| P/E Ratio | 13.55 | 27.84 | 49% |
| Revenue | 5.22B | 12.3B | 42% |
| Total Cash | 2.86B | 2.91B | 98% |
| Total Debt | 655M | 12.2B | 5% |
FSLR | NXPI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 59 | 14 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 12 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 77 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 49 | 43 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NXPI's Valuation (12) in the Semiconductors industry is significantly better than the same rating for FSLR (90) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that NXPI’s stock grew significantly faster than FSLR’s over the last 12 months.
FSLR's Profit vs Risk Rating (64) in the Electronic Components industry is in the same range as NXPI (77) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that FSLR’s stock grew similarly to NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
NXPI's SMR Rating (43) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as FSLR (49) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to FSLR’s over the last 12 months.
NXPI's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as FSLR (61) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to FSLR’s over the last 12 months.
NXPI's P/E Growth Rating (23) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as FSLR (34) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to FSLR’s over the last 12 months.
| FSLR | NXPI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 82% | 1 day ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 80% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 78% | 20 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 63% |
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NXPI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NXPI has been closely correlated with MCHPP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NXPI jumps, then MCHPP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NXPI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NXPI | 100% | +2.46% | ||
| MCHPP - NXPI | 82% Closely correlated | +1.76% | ||
| ON - NXPI | 79% Closely correlated | +3.07% | ||
| ENTG - NXPI | 78% Closely correlated | +1.96% | ||
| MCHP - NXPI | 78% Closely correlated | +2.07% | ||
| LRCX - NXPI | 77% Closely correlated | -1.66% | ||
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