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FSLR vs TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? First Solar (FSLR) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FSLR has faced headwinds from disappointing 2026 guidance and a shrinking backlog, contributing to a year-to-date decline of around 25%, despite strong long-term solar demand.
- TSM benefits from robust AI-driven revenue growth, with recent monthly sales up 30% year-over-year and a year-to-date gain of approximately 15%.
- Recent analyst actions show price target cuts for FSLR amid policy uncertainties, while TSM maintains strong buy ratings on semiconductor momentum.
- Over the past year, TSM has significantly outperformed FSLR, delivering over 100% returns compared to around 50%.
- Sector contrasts highlight TSM's stability in high-performance computing versus FSLR's exposure to renewable energy policy risks.
- Tickeron's AI tools favor TSM for its trend consistency and growth catalysts in the current market.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines FSLR (First Solar), a leader in thin-film photovoltaic solar modules, and TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company), the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry. Both operate in technology-driven sectors—renewable energy and advanced chip manufacturing—offering exposure to long-term trends like clean power transition and AI proliferation. Traders seeking momentum in semiconductors or value in solar, and investors balancing growth with policy-sensitive plays, will find this analysis of their recent market positioning, relative performance, and key drivers particularly relevant in today's volatile environment.
FSLR Overview and Recent Performance
First Solar, headquartered in Tempe, Arizona, specializes in cadmium telluride thin-film solar modules, serving utilities, developers, and large energy buyers globally. The company boasts the largest U.S. manufacturing footprint among solar producers, with capacity expansions targeting 25 GW annually by 2026. In recent market activity, FSLR shares have declined sharply year-to-date by about 25%, underperforming broader indices. This pullback stems from weaker-than-expected 2026 guidance, a shrinking order backlog, and concerns over pricing recovery and dependency on expiring tax credits. Despite beating Q4 sales estimates and maintaining strong module demand, analyst price target reductions reflect sentiment shifts toward policy uncertainties and oversupply pressures in solar, though long-term U.S. content bonuses provide some offset.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), based in Hsinchu, Taiwan, dominates the pure-play foundry model, producing advanced chips for clients like Apple, Nvidia, and AMD across high-performance computing, smartphones, and automotive sectors. With over 70% market share in leading-edge nodes, TSMC operates massive fabs in Taiwan, the U.S., and Japan. Recent performance has been robust, with shares up around 15% year-to-date and over 100% in the past year, fueled by AI infrastructure demand. February sales surged 22-30% year-over-year, underscoring momentum in AI accelerators despite some mobile chip softness. Geopolitical risks linger, but expanding U.S. production and consistent revenue beats have bolstered positive market sentiment and analyst upgrades.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
FSLR and TSM diverge sharply in business models: First Solar's integrated manufacturing emphasizes U.S.-centric solar production amid global renewables push, while TSMC's asset-light foundry excels in cutting-edge nodes for fabless designers. Growth drivers contrast renewables policy and capacity ramps for FSLR against AI/high-performance computing tailwinds for TSM. Recent momentum favors TSM, with 15% YTD gains and 100%+ annual returns versus FSLR's 25% YTD drop. Risk factors include tax credit phase-outs and solar oversupply for FSLR, and Taiwan geopolitics for TSM. Sector exposure pits cyclical clean energy against resilient semis, with sentiment leaning toward TSM's stability and catalysts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TSM due to superior trend consistency, AI-fueled revenue acceleration, and stronger relative positioning amid semiconductor upcycles. While FSLR offers value at lower multiples, its backlog concerns and policy risks temper near-term appeal. Probabilistic edge tilts to TSM for sustained momentum.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FSLR is a StrongBuy and TSM is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FSLR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTSM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- FSLR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FSLR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FSLR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FSLR (@Alternative Power Generation) experienced а +4.17% price change this week, while TSM (@Semiconductors) price change was +9.31% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Alternative Power Generation industry was +0.41%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.14%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +6.73%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.06%.
Reported Earning Dates
FSLR is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Apr 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Alternative Power Generation (+0.41% weekly)The alternative power generation industry consists of companies that operate power facilities converting non-conventional forms of energy into electricity. These energy forms are alternatives to fossil fuels, and many of them are derived from natural resources. Alternative energy forms include solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal steam. A major purpose behind using alternative energy – also called ‘clean’ energy - is to address concerns related to the more conventional fossil fuels, such as the latter’s high carbon dioxide emissions which is often considered a factor in global warming. Alternative power generation has been gaining traction in recent years, and could grow further in the future. Large organizations like Google have invested substantially in wind and solar energy-powered electricity. Some of the prominent U.S. companies operating in the alternative power generation industry includes Ormat Technologies, Inc., TerraForm Power, Inc. and NextEra Energy Partners LP.
@Semiconductors (+6.73% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| FSLR | TSM | FSLR / TSM | |
| Capitalization | 21.9B | 1.63T | 1% |
| EBITDA | 2.15B | 2.74T | 0% |
| Gain YTD | -22.111 | 22.635 | -98% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.32 | 35.52 | 40% |
| Revenue | 5.22B | 3.81T | 0% |
| Total Cash | 2.86B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 655M | N/A | - |
FSLR | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 51 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 49 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 57 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (51) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FSLR (91) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew somewhat faster than FSLR’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FSLR (61) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew somewhat faster than FSLR’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's SMR Rating (26) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as FSLR (49) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to FSLR’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as FSLR (57) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to FSLR’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as FSLR (27) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that TSM’s stock grew similarly to FSLR’s over the last 12 months.
| FSLR | TSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 78% | 23 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 61% |
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TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | +1.40% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +2.05% | ||
| ASX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +1.35% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +1.89% | ||
| NVDA - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | +2.57% | ||
| MPWR - TSM | 72% Closely correlated | +1.47% | ||
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