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INCY vs LLY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Incyte Corporation (INCY) vs. Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- INCY trades at a forward P/E of around 14 with strong 1-year returns of 49%, but recent weeks show volatility following Q4 earnings miss on EPS despite revenue beat.
- LLY boasts a massive market cap over $790B, YTD gains of 17%, driven by incretin drugs like Mounjaro and Zepbound, though facing short-term pressure from competition and regulatory scrutiny.
- Both firms operate in biotech/pharma, but INCY focuses on hematology/oncology with Jakafi dominance, while LLY leads in obesity/diabetes treatments.
- INCY offers value with 25% profit margins and pipeline catalysts like povorcitinib data; LLY shows superior growth but higher valuation at P/E 39.
- Recent market activity highlights LLY's AI partnerships and manufacturing expansions amid supply demands, contrasting INCY's stable cash flows.
- Analyst targets suggest upside: INCY at $107 (18% potential), LLY at $1,209 (36% potential).
Introduction
This stock comparison between INCY and LLY examines two biotech/pharma leaders amid evolving market dynamics in oncology, immunology, and metabolic disorders. Investors seeking exposure to innovative therapies with strong revenue streams, such as JAK inhibitors or GLP-1 agonists (glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists), may find value in analyzing their relative performance. Traders focused on short-term momentum versus long-term growth catalysts will benefit from insights into recent earnings, pipeline updates, and sector sentiment shifts. Both stocks highlight trade-offs in valuation, stability, and upside potential in the current healthcare landscape.
INCY Overview and Recent Performance
Incyte Corporation (INCY) is a biopharmaceutical company specializing in small-molecule therapeutics for oncology and inflammation, anchored by its blockbuster JAK inhibitor Jakafi (ruxolitinib). In recent market activity, INCY shares have traded around $90, with a market cap of $18B and trailing P/E of 14. The stock delivered robust 1-year returns of 49% and YTD gains of 9%, outperforming broader indices in longer horizons. Q4 revenue surged 28% to $1.51B, driven by Jakafi and Opzelura cream sales, though an EPS miss at $1.80 due to elevated R&D expenses (research and development) led to short-term pressure, with shares down over 10% in recent weeks. Positive sentiment stems from late-stage data for povorcitinib in hidradenitis suppurativa and executive appointments signaling pipeline focus. With $3.6B in cash and analyst targets averaging $107, INCY maintains a stable profile amid diversification efforts.
LLY Overview and Recent Performance
Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) is a global pharmaceutical giant excelling in diabetes, obesity, oncology, and immunology, propelled by incretin therapies like Mounjaro and Zepbound. Shares hover near $887, reflecting a $794B market cap and P/E of 39. YTD performance stands at 17%, with 3-year returns exceeding 166%, though recent weeks reflect volatility from competitive oral GLP-1 approvals and EU regulatory reviews. Strong demand sustains momentum, with Q4 revenue up 43% and 2026 guidance projecting $80-83B, bolstered by manufacturing expansions and AI-driven R&D deals up to $2.75B. Profit margins near 32% and ROE (return on equity) over 100% underscore efficiency, while pipeline catalysts like orforglipron fuel optimism despite high valuation. Analyst consensus targets $1,209, positioning LLY for growth in high-demand markets.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
INCY and LLY diverge sharply in scale and focus: INCY’s targeted oncology model yields steady cash flows (25% margins) but hinges on Jakafi patent dynamics, while LLY’s diversified portfolio drives explosive growth via obesity blockbusters. Recent momentum favors LLY’s 17% YTD versus INCY’s stability, yet INCY trades at a discount (P/E 14 vs. 39), appealing to value seekers. Risk factors include INCY’s pipeline dependency and LLY’s supply constraints/competition. Sector exposure overlaps in inflammation but LLY dominates metabolic trends; sentiment tilts toward LLY’s catalysts amid broader pharma rotation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward LLY due to consistent revenue momentum from incretin dominance, expansive pipeline catalysts like oral GLP-1s, and superior relative positioning in high-growth metabolic areas, despite elevated valuation. INCY offers compelling value and stability, but LLY’s trend strength and market share gains suggest higher probability of outperformance in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is INCY is a StrongBuy and LLY is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
INCY’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileLLY’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- INCY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- LLY’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
INCY’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LLY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- INCY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LLY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
INCY (@Biotechnology) experienced а +0.15% price change this week, while LLY (@Pharmaceuticals: Major) price change was +0.42% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Biotechnology industry was +1.04%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.21%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Pharmaceuticals: Major industry was -0.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.54%.
Reported Earning Dates
INCY is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
LLY is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Biotechnology (+1.04% weekly)Biotechnology involves genetic or protein engineering to produce medicines/therapies for treating and preventing ailments. The industry also provides crucial ingredients for diagnostics. This multi-billion-dollar industry is heavily focused on research and development, as companies attempt to continually come up with cutting-edge solutions for health. New discoveries for the treatment of diseases provide opportunities for growth for a company in this industry. Discoveries, however, must pass the regulatory approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) before they can make it to markets. Amgen Inc., Gilead Sciences, Inc. and Celgene Corporation are examples of companies in this industry.
@Pharmaceuticals: Major (-0.86% weekly)The Major Pharmaceuticals industry includes companies that are involved in various processes of creating drugs to treat/prevent diseases. These companies engage in research, testing and manufacturing, as well as the distribution of pharmaceuticals into markets. Johnson & Johnson, Merck & Co., Inc., Pfizer Inc. and Novartis are among the largest companies in this category.
| INCY | LLY | INCY / LLY | |
| Capitalization | 19.1B | 839B | 2% |
| EBITDA | 1.76B | 31.7B | 6% |
| Gain YTD | -2.734 | -12.436 | 22% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.99 | 40.94 | 37% |
| Revenue | 5.14B | 65.2B | 8% |
| Total Cash | 3.58B | 7.27B | 49% |
| Total Debt | 40.4M | 42.5B | 0% |
INCY | LLY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 70 Overvalued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 72 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 32 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 88 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LLY's Valuation (67) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as INCY (70) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that LLY’s stock grew similarly to INCY’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is somewhat better than the same rating for INCY (72) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that LLY’s stock grew somewhat faster than INCY’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's SMR Rating (13) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as INCY (32) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that LLY’s stock grew similarly to INCY’s over the last 12 months.
INCY's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Biotechnology industry is in the same range as LLY (54) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry. This means that INCY’s stock grew similarly to LLY’s over the last 12 months.
LLY's P/E Growth Rating (88) in the Pharmaceuticals Major industry is in the same range as INCY (100) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that LLY’s stock grew similarly to INCY’s over the last 12 months.
| INCY | LLY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 59% | 6 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 55% |
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LLY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LLY has been loosely correlated with MRK. These tickers have moved in lockstep 45% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LLY jumps, then MRK could also see price increases.