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KDP vs TGT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) vs. Target Corporation (TGT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KDP reported Q4 2025 earnings and revenue beats, with 10.5% sales growth driven by U.S. Refreshment Beverages, but shares have underperformed YTD at +0.94% amid coffee segment challenges.
- TGT delivered Q4 adjusted EPS beat despite revenue miss and comparable sales decline, with YTD gains of +24.78% fueled by positive guidance and store investments.
- Analysts see 26% upside for KDP on strategic moves like JDE Peet's acquisition, contrasting TGT's momentum from retail recovery signals.
- TGT trades at a lower P/E of 14.85 versus KDP's 18.33, highlighting value in retail amid consumer staples stability.
- Recent market activity shows TGT leading in momentum, while KDP offers defensive positioning in beverages.
Introduction
This stock comparison between KDP (Keurig Dr Pepper) and TGT (Target Corporation) evaluates their relative performance in the current market environment. KDP represents the stable consumer staples sector with beverage focus, while TGT embodies cyclical retail dynamics. Traders seeking momentum may eye TGT's recent gains, whereas long-term investors might prefer KDP's growth catalysts like acquisitions. This analysis highlights key metrics, recent developments, and sector contrasts to inform stock comparison decisions amid shifting sentiment.
KDP Overview and Recent Performance
KDP, a leading non-alcoholic beverage company, operates through U.S. Refreshment Beverages, U.S. Coffee, and International segments, offering brands like Dr Pepper, Snapple, and Green Mountain Coffee. In recent market activity, shares traded around $28, within a 52-week range of $25.03-$36.12, reflecting modest YTD gains of +0.94% versus the S&P 500's decline. Q4 2025 results showed earnings and revenues beating estimates, with 10.5% sales growth to $4.50 billion, propelled by Refreshment Beverages volume and pricing. Strategic moves, including a planned $18 billion JDE Peet's acquisition and coffee business restructuring, have bolstered sentiment, with analysts forecasting 26% upside. However, coffee segment pressures and recent pullbacks from 50-day moving averages have tempered momentum, positioning KDP as a defensive play amid volatility.
TGT Overview and Recent Performance
TGT, a major U.S. discount retailer, sells apparel, groceries, electronics, and essentials across nearly 2,000 stores. Shares recently hovered near $121, in a 52-week range of $83.44-$126, with strong YTD performance of +24.78% outpacing the S&P 500. Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $2.44 beat expectations despite a revenue dip to $30.45 billion and -2.5% comparable sales, driven by store traffic softness offset by digital growth and margin expansion. Guidance for FY2026 signals 2% sales growth and EPS of $7.50-$8.50, supported by store remodels, faster delivery, and price investments. Positive momentum indicators like Aroon Uptrend have fueled gains, though retail cyclicality introduces risks from consumer spending shifts.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
KDP and TGT contrast sharply in business models: KDP's staples focus yields steady demand via branded beverages, while TGT's retail exposes it to discretionary spending cycles. Growth drivers differ—KDP leverages acquisitions and innovation in energy drinks, TGT bets on omnichannel and store upgrades. Recent momentum favors TGT with 24%+ YTD gains versus KDP's flat performance, though KDP shows undervaluation at 18x P/E with higher analyst upside. Risk factors include KDP's integration challenges and TGT's sales volatility; sector exposure pits defensive beverages against consumer retail. Market sentiment tilts toward TGT's recovery narrative but values KDP's stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron's AI currently favors TGT due to superior trend consistency, positive MACD and Aroon signals, and stronger relative YTD positioning amid retail catalysts like EPS beats and growth outlook. While KDP exhibits stability and upside potential from Refreshment momentum, its recent bearish indicators like negative Momentum suggest higher near-term downside probability compared to TGT's bullish patterns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KDP is a Hold and TGT is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KDP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileTGT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- KDP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TGT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KDP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TGT’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KDP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TGT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
KDP (@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic) experienced а -0.15% price change this week, while TGT (@Discount Stores) price change was +4.88% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Beverages: Non-Alcoholic industry was -0.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.88%, and the average quarterly price growth was +2073.90%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +2.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.71%, and the average quarterly price growth was +7.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
KDP is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
TGT is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Beverages: Non-Alcoholic (-0.77% weekly)Non-alcoholic drinks include traces of alcohol or low alcohol content or without alcohol or alcohol removed. Functional Beverages, Carbonated Soft Drinks (CSDs), Sports Drinks, Fruit Beverages, and Bottled Water are some common types of non-alcoholic beverages. The largest segment in this market is soft drinks (think Pepsi and Coke). Many established companies in this space have also been stepping up production of low to zero-calorie varieties in recent years, to cater to a rising number of health-conscious consumers. Coca-Cola Company, Pepsico Inc, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. and Monster Beverage Corporation are some major non-alcoholic beverage makers.
@Discount Stores (+2.34% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| KDP | TGT | KDP / TGT | |
| Capitalization | 36B | 57.9B | 62% |
| EBITDA | 4.19B | 8.35B | 50% |
| Gain YTD | -3.656 | 32.113 | -11% |
| P/E Ratio | 17.34 | 15.72 | 110% |
| Revenue | 16.6B | 105B | 16% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 5.49B | - |
| Total Debt | 17.6B | 20.3B | 87% |
KDP | TGT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 23 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 67 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 75 | 38 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 12 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 23 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
KDP's Valuation (25) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TGT (67) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that KDP’s stock grew somewhat faster than TGT’s over the last 12 months.
KDP's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry is in the same range as TGT (100) in the Specialty Stores industry. This means that KDP’s stock grew similarly to TGT’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's SMR Rating (38) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (75) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that TGT’s stock grew somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's Price Growth Rating (12) in the Specialty Stores industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KDP (61) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that TGT’s stock grew somewhat faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
TGT's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Specialty Stores industry is significantly better than the same rating for KDP (95) in the Beverages Non Alcoholic industry. This means that TGT’s stock grew significantly faster than KDP’s over the last 12 months.
| KDP | TGT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 39% | 3 days ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 46% | 7 days ago 64% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 71% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 35% | 5 days ago 51% |
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