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KTOS vs NOC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) vs. Northrop Grumman (NOC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- KTOS has delivered explosive growth, with shares up over 194% in the past year and recent surges tied to unmanned systems contracts, contrasting NOC's steadier 50% annual rise.
- Both stocks benefit from defense sector tailwinds, but KTOS focuses on high-growth unmanned tech while NOC leverages a massive $95.7 billion backlog for stability.
- Recent performance shows KTOS at ~$95 with a sky-high P/E over 700x, signaling growth premium, versus NOC at ~$724 with a more reasonable 25x P/E.
- KTOS boasts a $1.57B backlog and hypersonic wins; NOC excels in manned aircraft like B-21 and large contracts.
- Market sentiment favors KTOS for momentum in recent weeks amid drone demand, while NOC offers lower volatility.
Introduction
In the aerospace and defense sector, KTOS and NOC represent contrasting profiles: a nimble innovator in unmanned systems versus a diversified prime contractor. This stock comparison analyzes their recent performance, growth drivers, and relative positioning amid rising global defense spending. Traders seeking high-momentum plays may eye KTOS's surge, while long-term investors could prefer NOC's stability and record backlog. Key insights into price behavior, sentiment, and sector exposure aid informed decisions in today's market environment.
KTOS Overview and Recent Performance
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions specializes in unmanned aerial systems, satellite communications, cybersecurity, microwave electronics, missile defense, and hypersonics, operating through Kratos Government Solutions and Unmanned Systems segments. Recent market activity has propelled KTOS shares to around $95, with a market cap nearing $18B and trailing P/E over 700x, reflecting aggressive growth expectations. In recent weeks, the stock surged on contract wins like a $7M Counter-UAS production deal, $61M for BQM-177A aerial targets, and hypersonic evaluations, boosting its $1.57B backlog and $13.7B pipeline. Q4 2025 revenues hit $345M, up 22% year-over-year, with EPS beating estimates. Equity issuance funded expansion, supporting sentiment amid demand for affordable, attritable systems.
NOC Overview and Recent Performance
Northrop Grumman is a leading aerospace and defense firm with segments in Aeronautics Systems (e.g., B-21 Raider), Defense Systems, Mission Systems, and Space Systems, serving U.S. military and international clients. Trading near $724 with a $103B market cap and P/E around 25x, NOC embodies mature stability. Recent weeks saw modest fluctuations despite a 28% YTD gain and 50% one-year return, driven by a record $95.7B backlog, B-21 production acceleration, and contracts like aircraft protection for Germany's CH-47 and $225M E-130J training. Q4 revenues grew 9.6%, with strong cash flow, though shares dipped on valuation concerns. Geopolitical tensions bolster long-term visibility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
KTOS emphasizes disruptive unmanned and hypersonic tech for cost-effective missions, contrasting NOC's broad portfolio in manned bombers, missiles, and space. Growth drivers differ: KTOS rides next-gen drone demand with 22% revenue jumps, while NOC relies on sustainment from its enormous backlog. Recent momentum favors KTOS (194% 1Y vs. 50%), but NOC exhibits lower beta (0.01) and risks like program delays. Both share sector exposure to U.S. budgets, yet KTOS trades at a premium valuation versus NOC's value, with sentiment tilting toward KTOS for innovation trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors KTOS for its superior trend consistency in recent market activity, fueled by unmanned catalysts and outsized relative performance versus NOC. While NOC provides stability, KTOS's positioning in high-demand tech suggests higher probabilistic upside in the near term, based on momentum and contract flow.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KTOS is a Hold and NOC is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KTOS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileNOC’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- KTOS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NOC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KTOS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NOC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KTOS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NOC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
KTOS (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +1.52% price change this week, while NOC (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -1.70% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +4.33%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.07%, and the average quarterly price growth was +25.05%.
Reported Earning Dates
KTOS is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
NOC is expected to report earnings on Apr 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+4.33% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| KTOS | NOC | KTOS / NOC | |
| Capitalization | 12.8B | 98.1B | 13% |
| EBITDA | 103M | 7.21B | 1% |
| Gain YTD | -9.986 | 21.496 | -46% |
| P/E Ratio | 525.62 | 23.75 | 2,213% |
| Revenue | 1.35B | 42B | 3% |
| Total Cash | 561M | 4.4B | 13% |
| Total Debt | 146M | 17B | 1% |
KTOS | NOC | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 58 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 66 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 88 | 35 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 56 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 29 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NOC's Valuation (66) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as KTOS (94). This means that NOC’s stock grew similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
NOC's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (62). This means that NOC’s stock grew somewhat faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
NOC's SMR Rating (35) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (88). This means that NOC’s stock grew somewhat faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
NOC's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as KTOS (56). This means that NOC’s stock grew similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
KTOS's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as NOC (29). This means that KTOS’s stock grew similarly to NOC’s over the last 12 months.
| KTOS | NOC | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 45% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 50% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 41% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 32% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 78% | 8 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 30% |
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KTOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KTOS has been loosely correlated with KRMN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KTOS jumps, then KRMN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KTOS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTOS | 100% | -8.23% | ||
| KRMN - KTOS | 62% Loosely correlated | -4.02% | ||
| AVAV - KTOS | 60% Loosely correlated | -4.94% | ||
| DRS - KTOS | 59% Loosely correlated | -1.73% | ||
| MRCY - KTOS | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.96% | ||
| HII - KTOS | 54% Loosely correlated | -1.94% | ||
More | ||||
NOC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NOC has been loosely correlated with RTX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NOC jumps, then RTX could also see price increases.