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ON vs TSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ON Semiconductor (ON) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ON focuses on power and sensing solutions for automotive and industrial markets, achieving YTD returns of about 10% amid stabilizing demand.
- TSM, the leading pure-play foundry, reports 30% revenue growth in early 2026 driven by AI chip demand, with YTD gains near 16%.
- ON trades at a high trailing P/E of over 200 due to recent earnings dips, while TSM's P/E around 33 reflects stronger profitability.
- Both stocks benefit from semiconductor megatrends, but TSM shows superior one-year performance at over 100% versus ON's 35%.
- Recent analyst targets suggest upside for both, with TSM at $429 average and ON at $67.
- Tickeron's AI robots highlight strong momentum in semiconductors, with bots achieving up to 100%+ annualized returns on related tickers.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines ON Semiconductor Corporation and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM), two key players in the semiconductor sector amid rising demand for AI, automotive electrification, and high-performance computing. Both companies navigate cyclical market dynamics, but differ in business focus—ON on power solutions and TSM on advanced foundry services. Traders seeking short-term momentum and investors eyeing long-term growth in tech infrastructure will find value in analyzing their relative performance, valuation, and sector exposure in today's evolving market environment.
ON Overview and Recent Performance
ON Semiconductor Corporation specializes in intelligent power and sensing solutions, serving automotive, industrial, and cloud markets through segments like Power Solutions, Analog and Mixed-Signal, and Intelligent Sensing. The company designs discrete, integrated devices for power conversion, signal conditioning, and image sensors used in electrification, automation, and AI data centers.
In recent market activity, ON has shown resilience, posting YTD returns around 10% and one-year gains of 35%, outperforming in a challenging demand backdrop. Q4 2025 revenue reached $1.53 billion with EPS beating estimates at $0.64, supported by $250 million in AI data center revenue and stabilization in automotive sales, up 1% sequentially. Full-year 2025 revenue hit $6 billion at a 38.4% gross margin, bolstered by Fab Right strategy exiting low-margin lines and $1.4 billion free cash flow enabling $6 billion buybacks. Sentiment has improved with analyst upgrades citing earnings revisions up 24% for the year, though high P/E reflects cyclical pressures. Guidance points to modest Q1 2026 growth in automotive and AI.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM) operates as the world's largest dedicated semiconductor foundry, fabricating advanced chips for clients in high-performance computing, smartphones, IoT, automotive, and consumer electronics using processes like CMOS logic and mixed-signal.
Recent performance underscores TSM's dominance, with YTD returns near 16% and one-year surge over 100%, fueled by AI infrastructure demand. January-February 2026 revenue jumped 30% year-over-year to NT$718.9 billion, with February up 22%, driven by advanced nodes (7nm and below) comprising 77% of wafer revenue. Q4 2025 profit rose 35% to a record, with full-year revenue up 31% and expectations for 30% growth in 2026. Trading at a P/E of 33 with market cap over $1.8 trillion, sentiment remains bullish amid Strong Buy ratings and $429 average target, tempered by geopolitical risks. AI revenue is projected to grow at 60% CAGR through 2029.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ON and TSM both thrive in semiconductors but diverge sharply: ON's fabless-like model emphasizes differentiated power/sensing for end-markets like EV and industrial automation, while TSM's pure-play foundry scales massive AI/HPC production for fabless giants like Nvidia.
Growth drivers contrast—ON eyes automotive recovery and AI data centers (high-teens growth), versus TSM's explosive 30%+ revenue from advanced nodes. Recent momentum favors TSM with superior YTD/1Y returns, but ON offers value via buybacks amid stabilization.
Risks include cyclical downturns and competition for both; ON faces industrial softness, TSM geopolitical tensions. Sector exposure tilts TSM toward AI upside, ON diversified. Market sentiment leans TSM on scale, but ON appeals for margin focus.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TSM due to consistent revenue momentum from AI catalysts, superior relative performance, and stronger trend stability amid sector growth. Observable factors like 30% early-2026 revenue surge and high analyst conviction position it probabilistically ahead, though ON's recovery potential warrants monitoring.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ON is a Hold and TSM is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ON’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileTSM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ON’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ON’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ON’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ON (@Semiconductors) experienced а +20.92% price change this week, while TSM (@Semiconductors) price change was -0.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +11.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +20.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
ON is expected to report earnings on May 04, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+11.63% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ON | TSM | ON / TSM | |
| Capitalization | 32.7B | 1.67T | 2% |
| EBITDA | 888M | 2.74T | 0% |
| Gain YTD | 53.296 | 22.602 | 236% |
| P/E Ratio | 286.24 | 31.83 | 899% |
| Revenue | 6B | 3.81T | 0% |
| Total Cash | 2.55B | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 3.01B | N/A | - |
ON | TSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 89 Overvalued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 9 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 88 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 3 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 1 | 20 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TSM's Valuation (45) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (89). This means that TSM’s stock grew somewhat faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (67). This means that TSM’s stock grew somewhat faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's SMR Rating (26) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (88). This means that TSM’s stock grew somewhat faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
ON's Price Growth Rating (3) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TSM (40). This means that ON’s stock grew somewhat faster than TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ON's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (20). This means that ON’s stock grew similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
| ON | TSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 65% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 11 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 67% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| RSPT | 51.41 | 0.79 | +1.56% |
| Invesco S&P 500® Equal Weight Tech ETF | |||
| MVAL | 37.14 | 0.56 | +1.53% |
| VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat Value ETF | |||
| HAPI | 42.95 | 0.39 | +0.91% |
| Harbor Human Capital Factor US LrgCapETF | |||
| PTBD | 19.34 | 0.06 | +0.31% |
| Pacer Trendpilot US Bond ETF | |||
| PBJN | 30.65 | 0.05 | +0.15% |
| PGIM S&P 500 Buffer 20 ETF - Jun | |||