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AAON or CARR or TT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AAON, Inc. (AAON) vs. Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) vs. Trane Technologies plc (TT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AAON, Inc. (AAON) shows robust growth in data center cooling, with recent backlog surging over 100% year-over-year and projected 18-20% sales growth for 2026.
- Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) reported Q1 2026 revenue up 2.4% and data center orders surging 500%, though facing margin pressures from tariffs.
- Trane Technologies plc (TT) delivered strong Q1 2026 results with 6% revenue growth and raised full-year EPS guidance, backed by a record $10.7 billion backlog.
- All three benefit from HVAC demand driven by data centers, but TT leads in scale and YTD performance around 23%, followed by CARR at 24% and AAON at 23%.
- AAON trades at a premium valuation (P/E over 70x), while CARR and TT offer relatively lower multiples amid sector volatility.
- Recent market activity highlights data center catalysts boosting sentiment across the group, with relative strength in commercial HVAC exposure.
Introduction
AAON, Inc. (AAON), Carrier Global Corporation (CARR), and Trane Technologies plc (TT) are key players in the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) sector, specializing in commercial and industrial solutions. This comparison is particularly relevant for investors eyeing growth in data center cooling and energy-efficient systems amid rising demand from AI infrastructure and sustainability trends. Traders focused on industrials may find value in analyzing their recent earnings beats, backlog growth, and relative performance in a volatile market environment.
AAON Overview and Recent Performance
AAON, Inc. (AAON) engineers, manufactures, and sells air conditioning and heating equipment, including rooftop units and data center cooling via its BASX segment. In recent market activity, the stock has gained around 23% YTD, trading near $93 with a 52-week range of $62-$116. Performance reflects strong Q4 2025 results with 42.5% sales growth to $424 million, driven by BASX liquid cooling surging nearly 100%, leading to a record $1.83 billion backlog (up 111% YoY). Sentiment has improved on 2026 guidance for 18-20% revenue growth and 29-31% gross margins, though high P/E (over 70x) signals valuation caution amid expansion investments.
CARR Overview and Recent Performance
Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) delivers intelligent climate solutions worldwide, spanning residential, commercial HVAC, and refrigeration. Recent weeks saw shares around $64, up 24% YTD within a 52-week range of $50-$81. Q1 2026 earnings highlighted $5.34 billion revenue (up 2.4%) and adjusted EPS of $0.57 beating estimates, fueled by 500% data center order growth covering full-year expectations. Backlog strength and reaffirmed guidance bolster sentiment, though margin pressures from tariffs and organic growth concerns temper gains versus peers.
TT Overview and Recent Performance
Trane Technologies plc (TT) focuses on HVAC and transport refrigeration through Trane and Thermo King brands. Shares trade near $477, with 23% YTD gains in a 52-week range of $348-$503. Recent performance shines from Q1 2026's $4.97 billion revenue (up 6%) and $2.63 adjusted EPS topping forecasts, prompting raised full-year EPS to $14.75-$14.95 midpoint and highlighting a $10.7 billion backlog. Commercial HVAC demand and analyst upgrades (targets to $585) drive positive momentum, supported by scale advantages.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AAON, Inc. (AAON), Carrier Global Corporation (CARR), and Trane Technologies plc (TT) share HVAC exposure but diverge in scale and focus: AAON emphasizes custom commercial/data center units with niche BASX growth, CARR balances residential/commercial globally with refrigeration, and TT leads in broad climate solutions via massive backlog. Growth drivers favor data centers—AAON's highest % revenue (13%), CARR/TT at 3-5% but scaling rapidly. Recent momentum sees CARR/TT with stronger YTD gains versus AAON's 1-year lag (-5%), though all show backlog surges. Risks include cyclical construction, input costs, and tariffs hitting margins (CARR most exposed). AAON's premium valuation (P/E 70x+) contrasts TT's 36x and CARR's relative discount; sentiment tilts to TT's stability amid sector tailwinds.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors Trane Technologies plc (TT) for its trend consistency, largest backlog visibility, raised guidance, and balanced scale in commercial HVAC/data centers—positioning it for higher probability of outperformance relative to AAON's valuation stretch and CARR's margin headwinds.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAON’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileCARR’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and TT’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- AAON’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CARR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- TT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAON’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CARR’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s), and TT’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAON’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CARR’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AAON (@Building Products) experienced а +42.61% price change this week, while CARR (@Building Products) price change was +2.15% , and TT (@Building Products) price fluctuated -2.05% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Building Products industry was +5.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +8.77%, and the average quarterly price growth was +15.90%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAON is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
CARR is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
TT is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Building Products (+5.31% weekly)The industry manufactures products used in the construction of residential and commercial buildings. The process involves using materials and other products, and processing them to create finished items such as doors, windows, light fittings, floor coverings, climate control products and other building components and home improvement products. Masco Corporation, Allegion PLC and Lennox International Inc. are major manufacturers of such products.
| AAON | CARR | TT | |
| Capitalization | 10.9B | 54.5B | 103B |
| EBITDA | 250M | 3.16B | 4.26B |
| Gain YTD | 75.394 | 25.049 | 20.449 |
| P/E Ratio | 94.06 | 43.71 | 35.73 |
| Revenue | 1.62B | 21.9B | 21.6B |
| Total Cash | 13K | 1.37B | 1.07B |
| Total Debt | 451M | 12.6B | 4.62B |
AAON | CARR | TT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 76 | 71 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 95 Overvalued | 66 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 55 | 11 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 60 | 71 | 26 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 46 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 61 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CARR's Valuation (66) in the null industry is in the same range as TT (84) in the null industry, and is in the same range as AAON (95) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that CARR's stock grew similarly to TT’s and similarly to AAON’s over the last 12 months.
TT's Profit vs Risk Rating (11) in the null industry is in the same range as AAON (37) in the Industrial Machinery industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for CARR (55) in the null industry. This means that TT's stock grew similarly to AAON’s and somewhat faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
TT's SMR Rating (26) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AAON (60) in the Industrial Machinery industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for CARR (71) in the null industry. This means that TT's stock grew somewhat faster than AAON’s and somewhat faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
AAON's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as TT (39) in the null industry, and is in the same range as CARR (46) in the null industry. This means that AAON's stock grew similarly to TT’s and similarly to CARR’s over the last 12 months.
AAON's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as TT (43) in the null industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for CARR (61) in the null industry. This means that AAON's stock grew similarly to TT’s and somewhat faster than CARR’s over the last 12 months.
| AAON | CARR | TT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 5 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 12 days ago 66% | 19 days ago 66% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 63% | 5 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 64% |
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AAON and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAON has been loosely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AAON jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AAON | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAON | 100% | -5.74% | ||
| IR - AAON | 46% Loosely correlated | -1.99% | ||
| CARR - AAON | 42% Loosely correlated | -0.49% | ||
| APT - AAON | 42% Loosely correlated | -4.37% | ||
| LPX - AAON | 41% Loosely correlated | -1.69% | ||
| BXC - AAON | 40% Loosely correlated | -3.58% | ||
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CARR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CARR has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CARR jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CARR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CARR | 100% | -0.49% | ||
| IR - CARR | 76% Closely correlated | -1.99% | ||
| LII - CARR | 74% Closely correlated | -2.48% | ||
| TT - CARR | 60% Loosely correlated | -1.86% | ||
| BXC - CARR | 58% Loosely correlated | -3.58% | ||
| JCI - CARR | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.52% | ||
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