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ADI or ASML or MTSI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Analog Devices (ADI) vs. ASML Holding (ASML) vs. MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings (MTSI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADI delivered Q1 FY26 revenue of $3.16B, up 30% YoY, with raised dividends and strong industrial demand driving 19% YTD gains.
- ASML secured a record €7.9B EUV order from SK Hynix, boosting backlog amid AI chip demand, with shares up 30% YTD despite some volatility.
- MTSI reported Q1 FY26 revenue of $271.6M, up 24.5% YoY, fueled by data center and telecom growth, leading with 42% YTD returns.
- All three benefit from semiconductor tailwinds, but MTSI shows superior momentum, while ASML offers equipment monopoly stability and ADI consistent margins.
- Recent market dips reflect broader volatility, yet AI-driven demand supports relative outperformance across ADI, ASML, and MTSI.
Introduction
This comparison examines ADI, ASML, and MTSI, key players in the semiconductor ecosystem amid surging AI and data center demand. Analog Devices focuses on analog and mixed-signal chips, ASML dominates lithography equipment, and MACOM excels in RF/microwave solutions. Traders seeking exposure to chip design, manufacturing tools, and connectivity, as well as investors tracking sector relative performance and market positioning, will find value in understanding their recent trajectories, growth drivers, and trade-offs in the current environment.
ADI Overview and Recent Performance
Analog Devices, Inc. (ADI) is a global leader in analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing integrated circuits, serving industrial, automotive, communications, and consumer markets. In recent market activity, ADI reported fiscal Q1 2026 revenue of $3.16 billion, a 30% year-over-year increase, with adjusted EPS of $2.46 beating estimates. Gross margins expanded to 64.7%, driven by industrial and communications recovery alongside AI edge processing demand. The company raised its quarterly dividend 11% to $1.10, marking 22 years of increases, and guided Q2 revenue at $3.5 billion. Shares have gained about 19% YTD, reflecting resilience amid volatility, though recent weeks saw pullbacks from peaks near $363. Sentiment remains positive on strong cash flow generation and shareholder returns, bolstered by government semiconductor initiatives.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) specializes in photolithography systems essential for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, holding a monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) technology. Recent performance highlights include a landmark €7.9 billion EUV order from SK Hynix, the largest publicly disclosed, underscoring AI-driven capacity expansions. FY2025 revenue reached €32.7 billion, up 15.6% YoY, with Q4 at €9.72 billion and net income of €9.6 billion. The company guides 2026 revenue at €34-39 billion, with gross margins of 51-53%, citing robust EUV shipments and installed-base growth. Shares have advanced around 30% YTD but experienced volatility in recent weeks, dipping from highs amid reorganization news including 1,700 job cuts for agility. Positive sentiment stems from AI logic/memory demand and a strong backlog, despite China exposure normalizing to 20% of sales.
MTSI Overview and Recent Performance
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) designs high-performance analog semiconductors for RF, microwave, and optical applications in telecom, data centers, defense, and industrial sectors. In recent quarters, MTSI posted fiscal Q1 2026 revenue of $271.6 million, up 24.5% YoY, with adjusted EPS of $1.02 exceeding expectations and a book-to-bill of 1.3:1. Growth was propelled by data center optics like 448G PAM4 drivers and telecom/satcom solutions. Q2 guidance calls for $281-289 million in revenue. Shares lead peers with 42% YTD gains, though recent weeks showed swings from peaks above $258, supported by new product launches in PCIe 7.0 and copper connectivity. Investor sentiment favors its diversified high-margin exposure to AI infrastructure and defense ramp-ups.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ADI, ASML, and MTSI operate across the semiconductor value chain: ADI in signal processing chips, ASML in critical lithography equipment, and MTSI in RF/optical components. Growth drivers converge on AI/data centers—ADI via edge AI, ASML EUV for advanced nodes, MTSI high-speed interconnects—but MTSI shows fastest recent momentum at 42% YTD vs. 19-30% for others. Risk factors include ASML's geopolitical exposure (China sales) and capex cycles, ADI's industrial cyclicality, and MTSI's smaller scale. Valuation sensitivity favors ADI's stability (P/E ~59 trailing), while market sentiment tilts to MTSI's growth profile amid recent dips.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors MTSI due to its superior trend consistency, with 42% YTD gains outpacing peers, record bookings in data centers/telecom, and margin expansion from AI catalysts. While ADI offers stability and ASML unmatched backlog visibility, MTSI's relative positioning probabilistically edges ahead in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileASML’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and MTSI’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- ADI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MTSI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ASML’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and MTSI’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ASML’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MTSI’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ADI (@Semiconductors) experienced а +8.87% price change this week, while ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -1.58% , and MTSI (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +6.62% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +10.22%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +26.81%, and the average quarterly price growth was +26.06%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +7.12%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +30.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was +113.26%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADI is expected to report earnings on May 27, 2026.
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
MTSI is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+10.22% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
@Electronic Production Equipment (+7.12% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
| ADI | ASML | MTSI | |
| Capitalization | 186B | 564B | 21.1B |
| EBITDA | 5.53B | 12.6B | 259M |
| Gain YTD | 40.945 | 38.376 | 64.106 |
| P/E Ratio | 69.66 | 48.51 | 127.19 |
| Revenue | 11.8B | 32.7B | 1.02B |
| Total Cash | 4.05B | 13.3B | 768M |
| Total Debt | 8.68B | 4.39B | 531M |
ADI | ASML | MTSI | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 15 | 29 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 45 Fair valued | 76 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 10 | 26 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 77 | 19 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 39 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 14 | 45 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ADI's Valuation (45) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (76) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MTSI (83) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ADI's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and somewhat faster than MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ADI (10) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as ASML (26) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that MTSI's stock grew similarly to ADI’s and similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MTSI (59) in the Semiconductors industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for ADI (77) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML's stock grew somewhat faster than MTSI’s and somewhat faster than ADI’s over the last 12 months.
ADI's Price Growth Rating (4) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MTSI (36) in the Semiconductors industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for ASML (39) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ADI's stock grew similarly to MTSI’s and somewhat faster than ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ADI (40) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as MTSI (45) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to ADI’s and similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
| ADI | ASML | MTSI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | N/A | 1 day ago 66% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 56% | 6 days ago 67% | 23 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 79% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| EDF | 5.15 | 0.02 | +0.39% |
| Virtus Stone Harbor Emerging Markets Income Fund | |||
| NANR | 83.51 | 0.09 | +0.11% |
| State Street® SPDR® S&P® NrthAmNtrlRsETF | |||
| VTEB | 50.47 | 0.02 | +0.04% |
| Vanguard Tax-Exempt Bond ETF | |||
| ENDTF | 12.35 | N/A | N/A |
| Canoe EIT Income Fund | |||
| MFLX | 17.19 | -0.05 | -0.29% |
| First Trust Flexible Muncpl Hgh Inc ETF | |||
MTSI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTSI has been closely correlated with KLAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTSI jumps, then KLAC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTSI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSI | 100% | +1.48% | ||
| KLAC - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | +0.77% | ||
| LRCX - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | -1.66% | ||
| SITM - MTSI | 69% Closely correlated | +4.86% | ||
| VECO - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | +8.75% | ||
| AMKR - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | +3.07% | ||
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