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ADI or ASML or NVDA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Analog Devices (ADI) vs. ASML Holding (ASML) vs. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADI shares have shown resilience with 16% YTD gains and projected 44% earnings growth, driven by AI and industrial applications despite recent margin pressures.
- ASML leads YTD performance at around 29%, bolstered by a €38.8 billion EUV backlog amid surging AI chip demand, though geopolitical risks linger.
- NVDA maintains dominance with massive scale, recent Q4 revenue of $68.1 billion up 73% YoY, but YTD flat amid high expectations and competition.
- All three benefit from AI tailwinds, with ASML in equipment, NVDA in GPUs, and ADI in analog signals, yet trade at elevated P/E ratios of 58x, 47x, and 38x respectively.
- Recent momentum favors ASML, while NVDA offers ecosystem strength and ADI stability in diversified end-markets.
Introduction
Analog Devices (ADI), ASML Holding (ASML), and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) represent pivotal players in the semiconductor ecosystem fueling AI and advanced computing growth. ADI excels in analog and mixed-signal chips, ASML dominates lithography equipment, and NVDA leads in GPUs. This comparison analyzes their recent market positioning, performance, and relative strengths amid AI-driven demand. Traders seeking momentum and investors eyeing long-term catalysts in semis will find insights into valuation sensitivity, sector exposure, and sentiment shifts.
ADI Overview and Recent Performance
Analog Devices (ADI), a leader in analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing integrated circuits, serves industrial, automotive, communications, and consumer markets. The company bridges physical and digital worlds with solutions for AI edge computing, automation, and power management. In recent market activity, ADI shares traded around $319, reflecting 16% YTD gains and 47% over the past year, outperforming broader semis amid 14% three-month climbs. Sentiment has been influenced by margin improvement initiatives, AI test equipment tailwinds, and projected 44% earnings growth, despite a 6.5% pullback on guidance. Q4 results beat expectations with $3.16 billion revenue up 30% YoY, bolstering outlook in data centers and industrials.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding (ASML), the world's top supplier of lithography systems, enables advanced chip production with extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and deep ultraviolet tools essential for AI semiconductors. Headquartered in the Netherlands, it supports chipmakers globally through hardware, software, and services. Recent weeks saw ASML shares near $1,386, with robust 29% YTD returns and over 100% annually, driven by AI-fueled EUV backlog reaching €38.8 billion. Performance reflects 12.4% net system sales growth in 2025, though tempered by a 2-5% monthly dip amid geopolitical tensions and China exposure. Analysts highlight resilience, with revenue projections to €39.6 billion by 2028.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA), a pioneer in accelerated computing, dominates GPUs for AI, data centers, gaming, and autonomous systems. Its platforms power hyperscale AI infrastructure worldwide. In recent trading, NVDA hovered around $186, with YTD performance roughly flat amid 60-70% annual gains, reflecting digestion of explosive growth. Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue hit $68.1 billion, up 73% YoY, with Q1 guidance at $78 billion, fueled by data center demand surpassing $62 billion. Sentiment shifts stem from Blackwell GPU ramps and enterprise AI pushes, offsetting competition concerns.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ADI, ASML, and NVDA anchor the AI supply chain: ADI's analog components enable signal processing in edge devices, ASML's EUV monopoly fabricates advanced nodes, and NVDA's GPUs drive compute. Growth hinges on AI data centers, with ASML backlog providing visibility, NVDA hyperscaler capex, and ADI diversified industrials/autos. Recent momentum peaks for ASML (29% YTD), lags for NVDA (flat), with ADI steady. Risks include ASML's geopolitics/China curbs, NVDA's competition/valuation, and ADI's cyclicality. P/E sensitivity ranks NVDA cheapest at 38x, then ASML 47x, ADI 58x; sentiment favors AI purity but trades off scale versus upstream exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors NVDA for superior trend consistency in AI revenue acceleration, recent Q4 beats with $78 billion guidance, and dominant positioning in data center GPUs amid ecosystem lock-in. While ASML excels in backlog stability and ADI offers earnings growth, NVDA's catalysts suggest higher near-term outperformance probability in AI markets.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileASML’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and NVDA’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- ADI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NVDA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ASML’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and NVDA’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ASML’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- NVDA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ADI (@Semiconductors) experienced а +6.09% price change this week, while ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -1.25% , and NVDA (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +6.92% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +11.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +20.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.53%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +10.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +23.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +116.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADI is expected to report earnings on May 27, 2026.
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
NVDA is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+11.63% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
@Electronic Production Equipment (+10.31% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
| ADI | ASML | NVDA | |
| Capitalization | 181B | 565B | 4.9T |
| EBITDA | 5.53B | 12.6B | 145B |
| Gain YTD | 37.394 | 36.810 | 8.145 |
| P/E Ratio | 67.91 | 47.81 | 41.16 |
| Revenue | 11.8B | 32.7B | 216B |
| Total Cash | 4.05B | 13.3B | 62.6B |
| Total Debt | 8.68B | 4.39B | 11B |
ADI | ASML | NVDA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 82 | 21 | 32 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 46 Fair valued | 75 Overvalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 27 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 77 | 19 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 4 | 39 | 13 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 14 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 65 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ADI's Valuation (46) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (75) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is in the same range as NVDA (78) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ADI's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ADI (12) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as ASML (27) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA's stock grew similarly to ADI’s and similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (13) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for ADI (77) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that NVDA's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and somewhat faster than ADI’s over the last 12 months.
ADI's Price Growth Rating (4) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NVDA (13) in the Semiconductors industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for ASML (39) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that ADI's stock grew similarly to NVDA’s and somewhat faster than ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as ADI (42) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as NVDA (43) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to ADI’s and similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| ADI | ASML | NVDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | N/A | 3 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 6 days ago 72% | 5 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 67% | 21 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 68% |
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ADI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADI has been closely correlated with NXPI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ADI jumps, then NXPI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADI | 100% | +4.99% | ||
| NXPI - ADI | 83% Closely correlated | +1.08% | ||
| MCHP - ADI | 83% Closely correlated | +2.46% | ||
| LRCX - ADI | 79% Closely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| KLAC - ADI | 79% Closely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| ENTG - ADI | 78% Closely correlated | +7.46% | ||
More | ||||
ASML and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASML has been closely correlated with ASMLF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASML jumps, then ASMLF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASML | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 100% | +3.47% | ||
| ASMLF - ASML | 85% Closely correlated | +2.42% | ||
| ASMIY - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | +2.09% | ||
| LRCX - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| KLAC - ASML | 79% Closely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| AMAT - ASML | 77% Closely correlated | +1.81% | ||
More | ||||