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ADI or MPWR or NVDA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Analog Devices (ADI) vs. Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) vs. NVIDIA (NVDA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ADI shows robust industrial segment growth at 38% year-over-year, with YTD gains around 10-12% amid recent market volatility, bolstered by a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy).
- MPWR benefits from AI-driven power management demand in data centers, delivering YTD returns of 8-16% despite short-term pullbacks, with strong analyst projections for profit growth.
- NVDA maintains AI leadership with massive revenue scale but faces YTD declines of about 11%, trading at a forward P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) of around 30 amid broader semiconductor pressures.
- All three stocks have pulled back 8-14% over recent weeks due to geopolitical tensions and sector sell-offs, yet longer-term 1-year gains exceed 45-67% driven by AI and semiconductor tailwinds.
- MPWR and ADI offer diversified exposure beyond pure AI GPUs, potentially lowering volatility compared to NVDA's concentrated data center reliance.
- Relative performance highlights MPWR's edge in power efficiency for AI infrastructure, positioning it strongly in current market conditions.
Introduction
Analog Devices (ADI), Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR), and NVIDIA (NVDA) represent key players in the semiconductor sector, particularly amid surging demand for AI infrastructure, data centers, and industrial applications. These companies provide essential components—from analog signal processing and power management to high-performance GPUs—that power the AI revolution and broader tech ecosystem. Traders seeking short-term momentum and investors eyeing long-term growth in semiconductors will find this comparison valuable, as it highlights relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning in recent market activity. With all three experiencing volatility from geopolitical risks and sector rotations, understanding their contrasts aids informed decision-making on relative strength.
ADI Overview and Recent Performance
Analog Devices (ADI) is a global leader in analog, mixed-signal, and digital signal processing integrated circuits, bridging physical and digital worlds for applications in industrial automation, automotive, healthcare, and communications. Its portfolio includes data converters, amplifiers, power management ICs (integrated circuits), and sensors enabling the Intelligent Edge. In recent market activity, ADI stock has traded around $300-$310, reflecting YTD gains of approximately 10-12% despite a 10-13% pullback over recent weeks amid broader semiconductor declines. Key influences include robust 38% year-over-year growth in its industrial segment to $1.49 billion in Q1 fiscal 2026, driven by automation and electrification trends. Analysts maintain a bullish outlook with a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy) and projected 44% earnings growth for fiscal 2026, supporting sentiment amid volatility from supply chain concerns.
MPWR Overview and Recent Performance
Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) specializes in high-performance, energy-efficient power management semiconductors, including DC-DC converters, motor drivers, and lighting solutions for cloud computing, automotive, industrial, and consumer markets. Its fabless model emphasizes compact, green power ICs critical for AI data centers and electrification. Recently, MPWR shares have hovered near $1,000-$1,050, with YTD performance around 8-16% following a 10-13% dip in recent weeks tied to sector-wide pressures like geopolitical tensions. Positive drivers include AI demand boosting power solutions, with analysts forecasting profit doubling and strong Q1 revenue guidance. Insider activity and volatility have tempered gains, but enterprise data center exposure and low debt enhance resilience, fostering optimistic sentiment.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA (NVDA) dominates accelerated computing with GPUs, SoCs (systems on chips), and software for AI, gaming, data centers, and autonomous systems. Its CUDA platform and Blackwell architecture underpin AI factories worldwide. In recent trading, NVDA stock is around $165, posting YTD losses of about 11% after an 8-9% monthly decline, influenced by post-earnings reactions, AI competition concerns, and Middle East tensions weighing on semis. Despite Q4 revenue of $68 billion (up 73% YoY), shares fell on guidance scrutiny. Long-term strength persists with 50%+ 1-year gains and a market cap over $4 trillion, but elevated volatility from its AI-centric exposure has shifted near-term sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business models, ADI excels in broad analog/mixed-signal for industrial and auto (diversified revenue), MPWR in specialized power ICs for AI efficiency (fabless, green focus), and NVDA in GPU dominance (ecosystem lock-in via CUDA). Growth drivers contrast: ADI's industrial surge (38% YoY), MPWR's data center AI power needs, versus NVDA's hyperscale compute scale but competition risks. Recent momentum shows similar 8-14% pullbacks, with 1-year gains of 46-67% favoring MPWR. Risk factors include NVDA's high beta (2.38) and concentration, ADI/ MPWR's supply chain exposure. Sector exposure leans AI for all, but ADI adds stability via non-AI industrials. Valuation sensitivity: NVDA at ~34x P/E (trailing), others premium but growth-justified. Market sentiment favors MPWR's relative resilience.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors MPWR probabilistically, owing to its consistent trend in AI power management, superior YTD relative performance versus peers, and dedicated high-performing bots achieving strong returns amid volatility. Catalysts like data center expansion and lower debt bolster its positioning, while ADI offers stability and NVDA scale. This edge may evolve with market shifts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMPWR’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and NVDA’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- ADI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MPWR’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NVDA’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MPWR’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and NVDA’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MPWR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVDA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ADI (@Semiconductors) experienced а +9.99% price change this week, while MPWR (@Semiconductors) price change was +21.04% , and NVDA (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +6.34% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +6.73%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was +18.06%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADI is expected to report earnings on May 27, 2026.
MPWR is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
NVDA is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+6.73% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ADI | MPWR | NVDA | |
| Capitalization | 171B | 66.5B | 4.58T |
| EBITDA | 5.53B | 781M | 145B |
| Gain YTD | 29.512 | 49.671 | 1.148 |
| P/E Ratio | 64.01 | 105.28 | 38.50 |
| Revenue | 11.8B | 2.79B | 216B |
| Total Cash | 4.05B | 581M | N/A |
| Total Debt | 8.68B | 15.1M | 11B |
ADI | MPWR | NVDA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 30 | 16 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 39 Fair valued | 83 Overvalued | 77 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 22 | 10 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 76 | 46 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 7 | 3 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 2 | 56 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ADI's Valuation (39) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NVDA (77) and is somewhat better than the same rating for MPWR (83). This means that ADI's stock grew somewhat faster than NVDA’s and somewhat faster than MPWR’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (10) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ADI (14) and is in the same range as MPWR (22). This means that NVDA's stock grew similarly to ADI’s and similarly to MPWR’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (13) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MPWR (46) and is somewhat better than the same rating for ADI (76). This means that NVDA's stock grew somewhat faster than MPWR’s and somewhat faster than ADI’s over the last 12 months.
MPWR's Price Growth Rating (3) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ADI (7) and is somewhat better than the same rating for NVDA (49). This means that MPWR's stock grew similarly to ADI’s and somewhat faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
MPWR's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ADI (47) and is somewhat better than the same rating for NVDA (56). This means that MPWR's stock grew somewhat faster than ADI’s and somewhat faster than NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| ADI | MPWR | NVDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 57% | 13 days ago 66% | 13 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 75% |
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ADI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ADI has been closely correlated with NXPI. These tickers have moved in lockstep 84% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ADI jumps, then NXPI could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ADI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADI | 100% | -0.35% | ||
| NXPI - ADI | 84% Closely correlated | -0.63% | ||
| MCHP - ADI | 84% Closely correlated | +0.48% | ||
| MCHPP - ADI | 83% Closely correlated | -0.06% | ||
| TXN - ADI | 80% Closely correlated | -0.12% | ||
| LRCX - ADI | 79% Closely correlated | +1.89% | ||
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