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AEP or EXC or FE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? American Electric Power (AEP) vs. Exelon (EXC) vs. FirstEnergy (FE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AEP leads year-to-date (YTD) performance with 19.67% gains, outpacing EXC at 7.59% and FE at 5.80%.
- All three stocks provide reliable dividends, with FE offering the highest yield at 3.96%, followed by EXC (3.61%) and AEP (2.78%).
- Analyst price targets indicate potential upside: AEP to $141.38, EXC to $50.22, and FE to $53.36.
- Recent quarterly results show stability, with FE reporting core earnings per share (EPS) of $0.72 and reaffirming 2026 guidance.
- AEP's market cap of $74 billion dwarfs FE's $27 billion, reflecting scale differences.
Introduction
This comparison examines three major regulated electric utilities: AEP, EXC, and FE. Serving millions of customers across the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast, these companies focus on electricity transmission and distribution amid rising demand from data centers, electrification, and grid modernization. Investors seeking stable dividends, defensive positioning in volatile markets, and exposure to infrastructure spending will find this analysis relevant for evaluating relative performance, valuation, and growth prospects in the current environment.
AEP Overview and Recent Performance
American Electric Power Company, Inc. (AEP) is a leading utility holding company generating, transmitting, and distributing electricity to over 5 million customers in 11 states. It operates one of the nation's largest transmission systems with 40,000 miles of lines and emphasizes regulated operations, renewables, and infrastructure investments. In recent market activity, AEP has delivered robust gains, with shares up nearly 20% YTD and trading near 52-week highs around $137. Sentiment has been bolstered by a reaffirmed upper-half 2025 earnings guidance of $5.75–$5.95 per share, a quarterly dividend increase to $0.95, and upcoming Q1 results expected to show EPS growth. Analyst optimism persists, though some view the stock as fully valued amid sector strength.
EXC Overview and Recent Performance
Exelon Corporation (EXC) operates six regulated utilities serving 10 million customers in Illinois, Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, Delaware, and D.C., focusing on electricity and natural gas distribution and transmission. Post its 2022 generation spin-off, EXC prioritizes regulated operations and efficiency programs. Recent weeks have seen steady performance, with YTD returns of 7.59% and shares around $46.50. Key supports include a $0.42 quarterly dividend, ComEd's energy efficiency savings exceeding $13 billion, and FERC approvals aiding customer costs. Q1 earnings are anticipated, though projections indicate a slight EPS decline; regulatory shifts and capex plans influence cautious sentiment.
FE Overview and Recent Performance
FirstEnergy Corp. (FE) delivers electricity through 10 subsidiaries to 6 million customers in Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, West Virginia, Maryland, and New York, with emphasis on distribution and transmission investments. Its portfolio includes limited generation from coal, hydro, and solar. In recent market activity, FE shares hover near $47, with modest YTD gains of 5.80% amid some pullback. Positive catalysts include Q1 core EPS of $0.72 meeting estimates, reaffirmed 2026 guidance targeting 6%–8% EPS growth, and a $36 billion capital plan for grid upgrades. Dividend of $0.465 supports yield, though regulatory and investment execution drive sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AEP, EXC, and FE share regulated transmission and distribution models, exposing them to steady rate base growth from grid hardening and renewables integration. Growth drivers include multi-billion capex plans amid electrification trends, though execution hinges on regulatory approvals. Recent momentum favors AEP's 20% YTD surge versus peers' single digits. Risk factors like interest rate sensitivity and state regulations are uniform, but EXC and FE offer cheaper forward P/E ratios around 17 versus AEP's 19+. Sector tailwinds from data center demand boost all, yet AEP benefits from transmission scale. Valuation trade-offs pit EXC's low P/E and high yield against AEP's premium for momentum, with market sentiment tilting toward infrastructure leaders.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI models would likely favor AEP in the current landscape, given its consistent upward trend, superior YTD relative performance, strong analyst targets implying modest upside, and transmission-focused positioning amid infrastructure catalysts. While EXC and FE provide value via yields and lower valuations, AEP's stability and growth outlook offer probabilistic edge for trend-following strategies.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AEP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileEXC’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s), and FE’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- AEP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- EXC’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- FE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AEP’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while EXC’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and FE’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AEP’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- EXC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- FE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AEP (@Electric Utilities) experienced а -3.85% price change this week, while EXC (@Electric Utilities) price change was -1.21% , and FE (@Electric Utilities) price fluctuated -1.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electric Utilities industry was -0.83%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.32%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
AEP is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
EXC is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
FE is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electric Utilities (-0.83% weekly)Electric utilities companies generate, transmit and distribute electricity to businesses/offices and residences. Companies may be owned by the government or investors or public shareholders, or a combination thereof. The industry also includes firms that buy and sell electricity. Companies in this industry typically require significant investments in infrastructure. Many firms in this industry pay substantial and regular dividends to shareholders. However, changes in interest rates (and their impact on debt burdens), natural disasters and changing commodity prices could be factors affecting energy utilities’ profit margins. NextEra Energy, Inc., Duke Energy Corporation, Dominion Energy Inc. and Southern Company are among U.S. electric utilities companies with the largest market capitalizations.
| AEP | EXC | FE | |
| Capitalization | 68.1B | 44.4B | 25.3B |
| EBITDA | 9.4B | 9.19B | 4.35B |
| Gain YTD | 10.186 | 0.370 | -0.167 |
| P/E Ratio | 18.51 | 15.89 | 23.82 |
| Revenue | 22.4B | 24.8B | 15.5B |
| Total Cash | 516M | 713M | 52M |
| Total Debt | 51.8B | 51.2B | 28.1B |
AEP | EXC | FE | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 51 | 53 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 62 Fair valued | 51 Fair valued | 42 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 40 | 41 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 63 | 71 | 75 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 61 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 51 | 42 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 75 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FE's Valuation (42) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as EXC (51) and is in the same range as AEP (62). This means that FE's stock grew similarly to EXC’s and similarly to AEP’s over the last 12 months.
AEP's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as EXC (40) and is in the same range as FE (41). This means that AEP's stock grew similarly to EXC’s and similarly to FE’s over the last 12 months.
AEP's SMR Rating (63) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as EXC (71) and is in the same range as FE (75). This means that AEP's stock grew similarly to EXC’s and similarly to FE’s over the last 12 months.
AEP's Price Growth Rating (51) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as EXC (61) and is in the same range as FE (61). This means that AEP's stock grew similarly to EXC’s and similarly to FE’s over the last 12 months.
FE's P/E Growth Rating (42) in the Electric Utilities industry is in the same range as EXC (51) and is in the same range as AEP (55). This means that FE's stock grew similarly to EXC’s and similarly to AEP’s over the last 12 months.
| AEP | EXC | FE | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 52% | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 42% | 2 days ago 40% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 5 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 49% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 45% | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 37% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 37% | 2 days ago 40% | 2 days ago 37% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 57% | 5 days ago 54% | 5 days ago 48% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 46% | 9 days ago 44% | 11 days ago 34% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 53% | 2 days ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 39% | 2 days ago 30% | 2 days ago 35% |
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AEP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AEP has been closely correlated with BKH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AEP jumps, then BKH could also see price increases.
EXC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EXC has been closely correlated with FE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if EXC jumps, then FE could also see price increases.
FE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FE has been closely correlated with EXC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FE jumps, then EXC could also see price increases.