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AIR or BWXT or KTOS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AAR Corp (AIR) vs. BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) vs. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AIR leads with 35% YTD gains and 96% one-year returns, driven by aerospace aftermarket growth and recent acquisitions.
- BWXT shows strong stability with 19% YTD and 85% annual gains, bolstered by Q1 earnings beats and nuclear sector demand.
- KTOS delivers 22% YTD and 65% one-year performance amid unmanned systems momentum, though recent volatility persists.
- All three operate in aerospace and defense, benefiting from government contracts, but differ in focus: aftermarket (AIR), nuclear (BWXT), and drones/hypersonics (KTOS).
- BWXT trades at a more reasonable P/E around 60x versus KTOS's 450x+, highlighting valuation contrasts.
- Recent market activity reflects sector tailwinds, with backlogs supporting future revenue visibility across the trio.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines AIR, BWXT, and KTOS, three players in the aerospace and defense sector. These companies cater to commercial aviation, nuclear propulsion, and unmanned systems, respectively, amid rising defense budgets and geopolitical tensions. Traders seeking momentum in high-growth niches and investors eyeing stable government-backed revenues will find value in analyzing their relative performance, recent catalysts, and market positioning. With strong YTD gains outpacing the S&P 500, this trio highlights opportunities in a resilient industry driven by aftermarket services, nuclear energy demand, and advanced weaponry innovations.
AIR Overview and Recent Performance
AAR Corp. (AIR) is a global provider of aerospace and defense aftermarket solutions, including parts supply, repair, engineering, and integrated logistics across commercial and government markets. In recent market activity, shares have demonstrated robust momentum, posting 35% YTD returns and 96% over the past year, significantly outperforming benchmarks. This strength stems from organic sales growth, particularly in parts distribution, and strategic moves like the acquisition of Aircraft Reconfig Technologies and a multi-year distribution agreement with Woodward. Q3 fiscal 2026 results showed sales up 25% to $845 million with adjusted EBITDA margins steady at 12%, reflecting improved throughput and commercial demand. Sentiment remains positive on expanding backlogs and AI-driven procurement tools like Airvoyant, though shares have faced volatility amid broader sector rotations.
BWXT Overview and Recent Performance
BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) specializes in nuclear components for naval reactors, commercial power, and medical isotopes, serving U.S. government and international clients. Recent weeks have seen solid performance with 19% YTD gains and 85% one-year returns, underpinned by a growing $7+ billion backlog. Q1 2026 earnings exceeded expectations, with revenues of $860 million (up 26% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $1.12, prompting raised full-year guidance for adjusted EBITDA to $650-665 million. Key drivers include higher throughput in government operations and commercial nuclear expansion via the Precision Components Group acquisition. Positive sentiment around nuclear energy tailwinds and defense contracts supports stability, despite minor pullbacks in volatile sessions.
KTOS Overview and Recent Performance
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions, Inc. (KTOS) develops unmanned aerial systems, hypersonics, and satellite technologies for national security applications. Shares have advanced 22% YTD and 65% over the past year, fueled by demand for drones and counter-UAS solutions. Recent activity includes a $447 million Space Systems Command contract and strong Q4 2025 results with 22% revenue growth to $345 million and adjusted EPS of $0.18. A $1.57 billion backlog and $13.7 billion pipeline underscore multi-year visibility in high-growth areas like propulsion and microwave electronics. While momentum persists from analyst upgrades on hypersonics potential, recent weeks have shown increased volatility tied to earnings anticipation and sector shifts.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business models, AIR emphasizes aftermarket services (73% commercial), contrasting BWXT’s government-heavy nuclear focus and KTOS’s innovative unmanned tech. Growth drivers include AIR’s acquisitions and distribution deals, BWXT’s nuclear backlog expansion, and KTOS’s hypersonic contracts. Recent momentum favors AIR on YTD gains, but BWXT offers lower beta (~0.8) for stability versus KTOS (1.06). Risk factors: AIR faces aviation cyclicality, BWXT regulatory hurdles, and KTOS execution in R&D-intensive areas. Valuations show BWXT at ~60x P/E (market cap ~$20B), AIR ~46x (~$4B), and KTOS 450x+ (~$11B), reflecting growth premiums. Market sentiment tilts toward nuclear and drones amid defense spending, with trade-offs in stability versus upside potential.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors BWXT for its trend consistency, earnings reliability, and balanced positioning in nuclear defense with a robust backlog and raised guidance. Relative to peers, it exhibits lower volatility and reasonable valuation amid sector catalysts, suggesting higher probability of sustained outperformance in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AIR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileBWXT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and KTOS’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- AIR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- BWXT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- KTOS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AIR’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BWXT’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and KTOS’s TA Score reflects 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AIR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- BWXT’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- KTOS’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AIR (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -9.52% price change this week, while BWXT (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -4.47% , and KTOS (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated -6.74% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -1.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was +54.11%.
Reported Earning Dates
AIR is expected to report earnings on Jul 21, 2026.
BWXT is expected to report earnings on Aug 10, 2026.
KTOS is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-1.86% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| AIR | BWXT | KTOS | |
| Capitalization | 4.01B | 18.1B | 10B |
| EBITDA | 375M | 569M | 110M |
| Gain YTD | 21.863 | 14.480 | -29.568 |
| P/E Ratio | 22.17 | 52.62 | 314.50 |
| Revenue | 3.14B | 3.38B | 1.42B |
| Total Cash | 78.5M | N/A | 1.46B |
| Total Debt | 980M | 2.02B | 185M |
AIR | BWXT | KTOS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 62 | 4 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 40 Fair valued | 94 Overvalued | 90 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 13 | 76 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 64 | 34 | 89 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 48 | 65 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 17 | 31 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AIR's Valuation (40) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (90) and is somewhat better than the same rating for BWXT (94). This means that AIR's stock grew somewhat faster than KTOS’s and somewhat faster than BWXT’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AIR (20) and is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (76). This means that BWXT's stock grew similarly to AIR’s and somewhat faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's SMR Rating (34) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AIR (64) and is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (89). This means that BWXT's stock grew similarly to AIR’s and somewhat faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AIR (50) and is in the same range as KTOS (65). This means that BWXT's stock grew similarly to AIR’s and similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as KTOS (31) and is significantly better than the same rating for AIR (100). This means that BWXT's stock grew similarly to KTOS’s and significantly faster than AIR’s over the last 12 months.
| AIR | BWXT | KTOS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 3 days ago 70% | 1 day ago 84% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 73% | 28 days ago 69% | N/A |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 1 day ago 55% | 16 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 86% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 72% |
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AIR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AIR has been loosely correlated with VSEC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AIR jumps, then VSEC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AIR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIR | 100% | -2.79% | ||
| VSEC - AIR | 56% Loosely correlated | -5.52% | ||
| WWD - AIR | 55% Loosely correlated | -1.31% | ||
| CW - AIR | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.76% | ||
| SARO - AIR | 54% Loosely correlated | -2.29% | ||
| HWM - AIR | 53% Loosely correlated | -1.51% | ||
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BWXT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BWXT has been closely correlated with CW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BWXT jumps, then CW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BWXT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWXT | 100% | -2.15% | ||
| CW - BWXT | 73% Closely correlated | -0.76% | ||
| AIR - BWXT | 51% Loosely correlated | -2.79% | ||
| KTOS - BWXT | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.39% | ||
| MRCY - BWXT | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.63% | ||
| HWM - BWXT | 48% Loosely correlated | -1.51% | ||
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KTOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KTOS has been loosely correlated with AVAV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KTOS jumps, then AVAV could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KTOS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTOS | 100% | -1.39% | ||
| AVAV - KTOS | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.80% | ||
| KRMN - KTOS | 61% Loosely correlated | -3.04% | ||
| DRS - KTOS | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.16% | ||
| MRCY - KTOS | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.63% | ||
| HII - KTOS | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.44% | ||
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