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AIR or CW or MRCY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AAR Corp. (AIR) vs. Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) vs. Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CW boasts the largest market capitalization at $26.32 billion and strong one-year returns exceeding 100%, driven by backlog growth in aerospace and defense.
- AIR shows robust year-to-date gains of 33.29% and a reasonable trailing P/E ratio (price-to-earnings ratio) of 24.25, supported by recent analyst upgrades.
- MRCY lags with 7.59% YTD performance amid negative EPS (earnings per share), but forward P/E suggests potential recovery.
- All three operate in the aerospace and defense sector, benefiting from sustained demand, though CW exhibits superior scale and diversification.
- Recent market activity highlights momentum in CW and AIR, while MRCY faces valuation scrutiny ahead of earnings.
Introduction
This comparison examines AIR, CW, and MRCY, three key players in the aerospace and defense sector. These stocks appeal to investors tracking industrial growth amid geopolitical tensions and rising defense budgets. Traders may find value in their relative performance, as each offers exposure to aviation aftermarket services, engineered components, and mission-critical electronics. Recent market activity underscores contrasts in momentum and valuation, aiding decisions on sector positioning versus broader indices like the S&P 500 Industrials. This analysis draws from verifiable data to highlight opportunities and trade-offs in the current environment.
AIR Overview and Recent Performance
AAR Corp. (AIR) supplies products and services to commercial aviation, government, and defense markets globally, operating through segments like Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, and Expeditionary Services. The company focuses on aircraft component leasing, maintenance, and logistics solutions. In recent market activity, AIR delivered year-to-date gains of 33.29% and one-year returns of 100.27%, reflecting strong demand for aftermarket support. Sentiment has been bolstered by solid quarterly earnings, with Q3 FY26 revenue at $845.1 million, and analyst upgrades, including KeyBanc raising its price target to $132. However, shares experienced some pullback in recent weeks amid broader sector volatility, trading around $110 with a market cap of $4.39 billion and trailing P/E of 24.25.
CW Overview and Recent Performance
Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) delivers engineered products and services to aerospace, defense, nuclear, and industrial markets via segments including Aerospace & Industrial, Defense Electronics, and Naval & Power. It specializes in sensors, actuation, and nuclear technologies. Recent performance shows year-to-date appreciation of 29.41% and one-year gains of 103.95%, underpinned by backlog expansion and positive analyst coverage. Shares hover near $713, with a $26.32 billion market cap and trailing P/E of 55.54, signaling premium growth expectations. Key influences include strong Q4 FY25 results and anticipation for upcoming earnings, alongside news of aerospace momentum and sector outperformance.
MRCY Overview and Recent Performance
Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) designs and manufactures components, modules, and subsystems for defense and aerospace, emphasizing secure processing, RF (radio frequency) solutions, and UAV technologies. In recent weeks, the stock has traded around $78, posting YTD returns of 7.59% and one-year gains of 57.01%, trailing peers amid profitability challenges (TTM EPS -0.52). Market cap stands at $4.71 billion, with a forward P/E of 52.36. Sentiment reflects caution ahead of Q3 2026 earnings, though analyst targets average $96.88, indicating recovery potential in defense electronics demand.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AIR emphasizes aviation aftermarket and logistics, contrasting CW’s broader engineered solutions across defense electronics and nuclear, and MRCY’s niche in mission-critical RF and processing. Growth drivers favor CW with its expanding backlog, while AIR benefits from commercial aviation recovery; MRCY eyes defense contracts but contends with losses. Recent momentum tilts to CW and AIR on one-year returns over 100%, versus MRCY’s 57%. Risks include sector cyclicality for all, with MRCY showing higher volatility. Valuation sensitivity is lowest for AIR at 24x trailing earnings, premium for CW, and forward-focused for MRCY. Market sentiment remains constructive across the board amid defense spending tailwinds.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward CW for its trend consistency, substantial backlog growth, upcoming earnings catalysts, and dominant relative positioning in aerospace and defense. While AIR offers balanced valuation and MRCY holds recovery upside, CW’s scale and momentum provide higher probability of outperformance in prevailing conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AIR’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileCW’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and MRCY’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- AIR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- CW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MRCY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AIR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CW’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and MRCY’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AIR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CW’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MRCY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AIR (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -11.23% price change this week, while CW (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -2.26% , and MRCY (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated +1.87% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -2.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was +45.17%.
Reported Earning Dates
AIR is expected to report earnings on Jul 21, 2026.
CW is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
MRCY is expected to report earnings on Aug 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-2.02% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| AIR | CW | MRCY | |
| Capitalization | 4.16B | 26.3B | 5.53B |
| EBITDA | 375M | 818M | 88.4M |
| Gain YTD | 26.283 | 29.331 | 26.051 |
| P/E Ratio | 22.98 | 52.21 | N/A |
| Revenue | 3.14B | 3.61B | 967M |
| Total Cash | 78.5M | 343M | 332M |
| Total Debt | 980M | 1.15B | 654M |
AIR | CW | MRCY | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 10 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 41 Fair valued | 71 Overvalued | 98 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 3 | 79 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 64 | 46 | 91 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 44 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 18 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AIR's Valuation (41) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as CW (71) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MRCY (98) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry. This means that AIR's stock grew similarly to CW’s and somewhat faster than MRCY’s over the last 12 months.
CW's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AIR (18) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for MRCY (79) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry. This means that CW's stock grew similarly to AIR’s and significantly faster than MRCY’s over the last 12 months.
CW's SMR Rating (46) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AIR (64) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MRCY (91) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry. This means that CW's stock grew similarly to AIR’s and somewhat faster than MRCY’s over the last 12 months.
MRCY's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as CW (44) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as AIR (50) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that MRCY's stock grew similarly to CW’s and similarly to AIR’s over the last 12 months.
MRCY's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as CW (18) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for AIR (100) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that MRCY's stock grew similarly to CW’s and significantly faster than AIR’s over the last 12 months.
| AIR | CW | MRCY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A | 3 days ago 82% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 41% | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 73% | 5 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 47% | 14 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 59% |
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AIR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AIR has been loosely correlated with VSEC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 56% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AIR jumps, then VSEC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AIR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIR | 100% | -3.76% | ||
| VSEC - AIR | 56% Loosely correlated | -5.24% | ||
| WWD - AIR | 55% Loosely correlated | -4.43% | ||
| CW - AIR | 55% Loosely correlated | -5.08% | ||
| SARO - AIR | 54% Loosely correlated | -4.07% | ||
| HWM - AIR | 53% Loosely correlated | -4.41% | ||
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CW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CW has been closely correlated with BWXT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CW jumps, then BWXT could also see price increases.
MRCY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MRCY has been loosely correlated with KTOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MRCY jumps, then KTOS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MRCY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRCY | 100% | -2.66% | ||
| KTOS - MRCY | 57% Loosely correlated | -5.03% | ||
| CW - MRCY | 56% Loosely correlated | -5.08% | ||
| BWXT - MRCY | 50% Loosely correlated | -2.95% | ||
| DRS - MRCY | 50% Loosely correlated | -3.17% | ||
| KRMN - MRCY | 49% Loosely correlated | -4.92% | ||
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