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ALAB or FN or ON
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Astera Labs (ALAB) vs. Fabrinet (FN) vs. ON Semiconductor (ON) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Astera Labs (ALAB) shows explosive revenue growth of 115% in FY2025, driven by AI connectivity demand, but trades 54% below its 52-week high amid market volatility.
- Fabrinet (FN) delivered record Q2 FY2026 revenue up 36% YoY, benefiting from optical manufacturing for AI data centers, with shares up over 170% in the past year.
- ON Semiconductor (ON) focuses on power solutions with stable YTD gains around 10%, though facing revenue headwinds in broader semis, trading near the middle of its 52-week range.
- All three benefit from semiconductor and AI tailwinds, but FN leads in recent momentum while ALAB offers highest growth potential.
- Market caps cluster around $20-24B, with varying volatility: ALAB beta 1.75, FN 1.02, ON 1.53.
- Analyst targets suggest upside: ALAB ~$200, FN ~$570, ON ~$65.
Introduction
Astera Labs (ALAB), Fabrinet (FN), and ON Semiconductor (ON) operate in the semiconductor ecosystem, capitalizing on surging demand for AI infrastructure, data centers, and power management solutions. This comparison evaluates their business models, recent performance, and relative positioning amid AI-driven growth and market rotations. Traders seeking high-momentum plays in connectivity and optics may favor ALAB and FN, while investors prioritizing stability might eye ON. Understanding their contrasts aids in navigating sector volatility and identifying relative outperformance opportunities.
ALAB Overview and Recent Performance
Astera Labs (ALAB), a fabless semiconductor firm founded in 2017 and headquartered in San Jose, California, specializes in connectivity solutions for cloud and AI infrastructure, including retimers and optical connectivity for hyperscalers. In recent market activity, the stock has exhibited volatility, trading around $120 with a market cap of approximately $21B, down from a 52-week high of $263 but up significantly from $47 lows. Recent quarters showed record FY2025 revenue of $853M, up 115% YoY, with Q4 at $271M (17% QoQ) and gross margins near 76%. Sentiment has been influenced by strong AI demand, European expansion, analyst upgrades to buy with $200+ targets, and production ramps for Scorpio X-Series, though profit-taking post-earnings contributed to a 13% pullback in recent weeks.
FN Overview and Recent Performance
Fabrinet (FN), based in George Town, Cayman Islands, provides precision optical, electro-mechanical, and electronic manufacturing services for OEMs in North America, Asia-Pacific, and Europe, with a focus on AI-related optical packaging. Shares have shown robust momentum, trading near $510-$520 with an $18B market cap, within a 52-week range of $149-$633. Recent performance includes record Q2 FY2026 revenue of $1.13B (36% YoY), surpassing guidance, and FY2025 revenue of $3.42B (19% YoY growth). Positive sentiment stems from HPC and data center demand, strong EPS beats ($3.36 vs. $3.19 expected), and upward Q3 guidance, though short-term pullbacks reflect broader tech rotations. Analysts maintain outperform ratings with targets around $570.
ON Overview and Recent Performance
ON Semiconductor (ON), headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, delivers intelligent power and sensing solutions for automotive, industrial, and AI applications across global markets. The stock trades around $59-$60, with a $24B market cap, in a 52-week range of $31-$74. Recent activity reflects mixed results: FY2025 revenue declined amid cyclical pressures, but Q4 showed resilience with focus on high-margin segments. YTD gains hover near 10%, outperforming the S&P slightly, though recent weeks saw fluctuations from leadership transitions and sector weakness. Key influences include strategic refocus on electrification and efficiency, with analysts projecting 13% EPS growth and targets near $65, supporting moderate positive sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ALAB, FN, and ON share semiconductor exposure but diverge in models: ALAB's fabless AI connectivity contrasts FN's contract manufacturing for optics and ON's integrated power/sensing. Growth drivers favor ALAB (115% revenue surge) and FN (36% quarterly jumps) via AI racks/data centers, while ON relies on auto/industrial recovery. Recent momentum peaks with FN (YTD +13%, 1Y +135%), followed by ON (+10% YTD), then ALAB (-28% YTD but 84% 1Y). Risks include ALAB's post-IPO swings and competition, FN's client concentration, and ON's revenue softness. Valuation sensitivity is elevated for growth plays ALAB (P/E 99x) and FN (49x) versus ON (206x but forward 15x). Sentiment tilts bullish on AI exposure, with trade-offs in volatility versus stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors Fabrinet (FN) due to its superior trend consistency, record revenue momentum, lower beta for relative stability, and strong positioning in AI optical supply chains amid data center builds. While ALAB holds high-growth promise and ON offers balanced exposure, FN's recent outperformance and analyst alignment suggest a higher probability of near-term relative strength in volatile conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ALAB’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileFN’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and ON’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- ALAB’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- FN’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ON’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ALAB’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FN’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and ON’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ALAB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- FN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- ON’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ALAB (@Semiconductors) experienced а +10.52% price change this week, while FN (@Electronic Components) price change was +10.81% , and ON (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +10.13% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +5.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.74%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Components industry was +5.83%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +25.30%.
Reported Earning Dates
ALAB is expected to report earnings on May 05, 2026.
FN is expected to report earnings on May 11, 2026.
ON is expected to report earnings on May 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+5.71% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
@Electronic Components (+5.83% weekly)The Electronic Components industry produces electronic equipment for industries and consumer electronics products, such as mobile devices, televisions, and circuit boards. TE Connectivity Ltd, for example, is a company that designs and manufactures connectivity and sensor products for harsh environments in various industries, such as automotive, industrial equipment, aerospace, and oil & gas. Another major player, Corning Inc., makes advanced optics including end-to-end fiber and wireless solutions for communications networks along with various other technologies catering to industrial and scientific applications.
| ALAB | FN | ON | |
| Capitalization | 22B | 22.1B | 26.9B |
| EBITDA | 180M | 466M | 888M |
| Gain YTD | -22.181 | 35.798 | 26.482 |
| P/E Ratio | 106.11 | 59.28 | 236.17 |
| Revenue | 853M | 3.89B | 6B |
| Total Cash | 1.19B | 961M | 2.55B |
| Total Debt | 4.15M | 4.89M | 3.01B |
FN | ON | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 30 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 73 Overvalued | 87 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 5 | 73 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 46 | 88 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 7 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 1 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FN's Valuation (73) in the Electronic Components industry is in the same range as ON (87) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that FN’s stock grew similarly to ON’s over the last 12 months.
FN's Profit vs Risk Rating (5) in the Electronic Components industry is significantly better than the same rating for ON (73) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that FN’s stock grew significantly faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
FN's SMR Rating (46) in the Electronic Components industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (88) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that FN’s stock grew somewhat faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
ON's Price Growth Rating (7) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as FN (36) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that ON’s stock grew similarly to FN’s over the last 12 months.
ON's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as FN (8) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that ON’s stock grew similarly to FN’s over the last 12 months.
| ALAB | FN | ON | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | N/A | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 82% | 28 days ago 68% | 11 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 2 days ago 80% | 1 day ago 62% |
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ALAB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ALAB has been loosely correlated with CRDO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ALAB jumps, then CRDO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ALAB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALAB | 100% | +3.19% | ||
| CRDO - ALAB | 65% Loosely correlated | -2.07% | ||
| VECO - ALAB | 55% Loosely correlated | +2.26% | ||
| AVGO - ALAB | 55% Loosely correlated | +1.22% | ||
| AMBA - ALAB | 54% Loosely correlated | +0.56% | ||
| LRCX - ALAB | 53% Loosely correlated | +4.98% | ||
More | ||||
FN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FN has been closely correlated with FLEX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FN jumps, then FLEX could also see price increases.