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ARM or ASML or MPWR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arm Holdings (ARM) vs. ASML Holding (ASML) vs. Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML leads with ~28% YTD gains and dominant EUV lithography position, bolstered by record orders and AI-driven demand.
- MPWR shows ~20% YTD return with 26% revenue growth from AI data centers and automotive, maintaining strong analyst support.
- ARM lags at ~5% YTD amid valuation concerns and recent pullbacks, despite 26% revenue growth in AI infrastructure.
- ASML's market cap exceeds $540B with P/E ~48, versus MPWR's $53B at P/E ~85 and ARM's $123B at P/E ~155, highlighting scale differences.
- All three benefit from semiconductor momentum, but ASML and MPWR exhibit stronger recent stability and growth catalysts.
Introduction
This comparison examines ARM, ASML, and MPWR, key players in the semiconductor ecosystem powering AI and advanced computing. ARM designs IP for processors, ASML supplies critical lithography equipment, and MPWR delivers power management solutions. Traders seeking exposure to chip design, manufacturing tools, and enabling components, as well as investors tracking relative performance in recent market activity, will find insights into price trends, sentiment, and sector dynamics relevant for portfolio positioning.
ARM Overview and Recent Performance
Arm Holdings plc (ARM) is a leading semiconductor IP designer, licensing energy-efficient CPU architectures used in over 99% of smartphones and expanding into AI data centers. Recent market activity shows revenue growth of 26% year-over-year to $4.67B TTM, driven by AI demand, though net income dipped amid investigations and valuation scrutiny. The stock, trading around $122 with a $123B market cap, has gained about 5% YTD but faced pullbacks of 8-12% over recent weeks and months due to high P/E near 155 and beta of 4.13, reflecting volatility from growth expectations and partnerships in edge AI.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) dominates extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, essential for advanced chip production, with a near-monopoly serving major foundries. Revenue reached $32.67B TTM, up significantly, fueled by AI infrastructure builds and record bookings. Shares around $1,378 with a $541B market cap have surged ~28% YTD, supported by bullish analyst targets up to $1,500 despite China-related pressures. Recent stability stems from strong margins over 50% and beta of 1.43, though short-term dips occurred amid broader semiconductor fluctuations.
MPWR Overview and Recent Performance
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) specializes in high-efficiency power management semiconductors for AI servers, automotive, and industrial uses. TTM revenue hit $2.79B, up 26%, with Q4 beats and guidance signaling continued data center strength. The stock, near $1,090 with $53B market cap, delivered ~20% YTD gains but saw monthly volatility down ~10%. Analysts' 'Strong Buy' ratings reflect growth prospects, tempered by P/E ~85 and beta 1.49, as AI demand offsets inventory concerns.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ARM, ASML, and MPWR share AI/semiconductor exposure but differ in models: ARM's IP licensing offers high margins with royalty upside, ASML's equipment sales tie to capex cycles, and MPWR's analog chips provide diversified end-markets. Growth drivers include AI for all, but ASML benefits from EUV monopoly, MPWR from power efficiency, and ARM from architecture adoption. Recent momentum favors ASML and MPWR over ARM's pullbacks. Risks: ARM faces probes/geopolitics, ASML export curbs, MPWR competition. Valuation sensitivity highest for ARM (P/E 155), lowest ASML (48); sentiment strongest around ASML's scale.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ASML due to superior trend consistency, YTD outperformance, massive backlog, and balanced risk-reward in lithography leadership amid AI chip ramps. MPWR ranks close for growth stability, while ARM trails on volatility. Probabilistic edge leans 60% to ASML based on relative positioning and catalysts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARM’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileASML’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and MPWR’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- ARM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MPWR’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ASML’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and MPWR’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- ASML’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MPWR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ARM (@Semiconductors) experienced а +0.46% price change this week, while ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was +9.98% , and MPWR (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +19.29% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +5.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.74%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +10.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was +83.74%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARM is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
ASML is expected to report earnings on Apr 15, 2026.
MPWR is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+5.71% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
@Electronic Production Equipment (+10.01% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
| ARM | ASML | MPWR | |
| Capitalization | 159B | 546B | 65.5B |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 12.6B | 781M |
| Gain YTD | 37.037 | 35.765 | 47.500 |
| P/E Ratio | 199.73 | 50.17 | 103.75 |
| Revenue | 4.67B | 32.7B | 2.79B |
| Total Cash | 3.54B | 13.3B | 581M |
| Total Debt | 461M | 4.39B | 15.1M |
ASML | MPWR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 28 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 4 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ASML's Valuation (78) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as MPWR (83) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to MPWR’s over the last 12 months.
MPWR's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (26) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that MPWR’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as MPWR (46) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to MPWR’s over the last 12 months.
MPWR's Price Growth Rating (4) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ASML (38) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that MPWR’s stock grew somewhat faster than ASML’s over the last 12 months.
MPWR's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (20) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that MPWR’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
| ARM | ASML | MPWR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 89% | N/A | 1 day ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 4 days ago 67% | 11 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 77% |
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ARM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARM has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARM jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | 100% | +0.59% | ||
| LRCX - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | +4.98% | ||
| KLAC - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | +3.28% | ||
| AMAT - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | +3.13% | ||
| FORM - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | +2.76% | ||
| TSM - ARM | 66% Closely correlated | -0.11% | ||
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