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ARM or ASML or NXPI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arm Holdings plc (ARM) vs. ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) vs. NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ARM shares have shown volatility in recent market activity, rebounding strongly with AI chip announcements amid year-to-date gains around 22%.
- ASML benefits from massive EUV orders like $7.9B from SK Hynix, supporting YTD performance near 31% despite monthly dips.
- NXPI faces pressure with shares down roughly 10% YTD and 16% over the past month, linked to softer guidance in select segments.
- All three operate in semiconductors but differ in focus: ARM on IP licensing, ASML on lithography equipment, and NXPI on automotive/industrial chips.
- Recent momentum favors ASML and ARM on AI tailwinds, while NXPI lags amid cyclical challenges.
- Valuations reflect growth expectations, with ARM at premium multiples versus more moderate levels for peers.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines ARM, ASML, and NXPI, key players in the semiconductor ecosystem pivotal to AI and advanced computing. ARM provides IP cores, ASML lithography tools, and NXPI analog/mixed-signal chips for automotive and industrial uses. Traders seeking exposure to AI-driven growth and investors tracking relative performance in volatile markets will find insights into recent trends, catalysts, and positioning. Amid sector rotation and AI optimism, understanding their contrasts aids informed portfolio decisions.
ARM Overview and Recent Performance
Arm Holdings plc (ARM) designs and licenses energy-efficient CPU architectures powering over 99% of smartphones and expanding into data centers and AI. Its IP licensing model generates recurring royalties tied to chip shipments. In recent weeks, ARM shares experienced volatility, dipping to around $114 before rebounding over 15% to near $137, driven by the unveiling of its first in-house AGI CPU chip with Meta as a partner, projecting billions in added revenue. Year-to-date gains stand at approximately 22%, outperforming broader indices, fueled by AI server optimism and analyst upgrades. Sentiment reflects durable demand for Arm-based designs amid AI proliferation, though high valuations introduce sensitivity to execution risks.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) holds a near-monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines essential for advanced chip production by foundries like TSMC. Recent market activity saw shares fluctuate from highs near $1,547 to around $1,317 before recovering to $1,370, with a 7% monthly pullback offset by YTD gains of about 31%. Key drivers include a $7.9 billion EUV order from SK Hynix through 2027, bolstering backlog and revenue visibility amid AI chip demand. Performance reflects robust sector exposure, though geopolitical tensions and export controls have tempered gains. Investor sentiment centers on ASML's irreplaceable role in shrinking transistors for next-gen semiconductors.
NXPI Overview and Recent Performance
NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) specializes in secure connectivity solutions, microcontrollers, and analog chips for automotive, industrial, and IoT applications. Recent weeks brought downward pressure, with shares declining from $232 to around $193, marking a 16% monthly drop and 10% YTD loss. Q4 revenue rose 7% year-over-year, but softer Q1 guidance and weakness in communications infrastructure weighed on sentiment. Automotive remains resilient, with "physical AI" traction in edge devices, yet broader inventory normalization and segment softness have driven underperformance relative to peers. Focus persists on electrification and secure processing amid cyclical headwinds.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ARM’s fabless IP model yields high margins and scalability via royalties, contrasting ASML’s capital-intensive equipment sales with long cycles but monopoly-like pricing power, and NXPI’s integrated manufacturing exposed to end-market cyclicality. Growth drivers diverge: ARM and ASML ride AI infrastructure waves, while NXPI leans on automotive EV/ADAS. Recent momentum shows ASML (+31% YTD) and ARM (+22%) ahead of NXPI (-10%). Risks include ARM’s lofty valuations (high P/E), ASML’s export curbs, and NXPI’s inventory overhang. Sector exposure favors NXPI in stable autos versus peers’ high-beta AI. Valuation sensitivity is acute for ARM, with sentiment tilting toward AI pure-plays amid trade-offs in stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ASML for its trend consistency, massive order backlog, and central role in AI chip supply chains, positioning it strongly relative to peers. Observable factors like EUV demand catalysts and YTD outperformance suggest higher probability of sustained momentum, though ARM’s innovation edge trails closely. NXPI lags on stability amid softer trends.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARM’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileASML’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and NXPI’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- ARM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NXPI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARM’s TA Score shows that 2 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ASML’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and NXPI’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARM’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ASML’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- NXPI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ARM (@Semiconductors) experienced а +11.95% price change this week, while ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) price change was -1.25% , and NXPI (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +5.71% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +11.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +20.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.53%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +10.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +23.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +116.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARM is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
NXPI is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+11.63% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
@Electronic Production Equipment (+10.31% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
| ARM | ASML | NXPI | |
| Capitalization | 177B | 556B | 54.6B |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 12.6B | 3.96B |
| Gain YTD | 52.530 | 36.810 | 0.042 |
| P/E Ratio | 222.31 | 47.81 | 27.17 |
| Revenue | 4.67B | 32.7B | 12.3B |
| Total Cash | 3.54B | 13.3B | 2.91B |
| Total Debt | 461M | 4.39B | 12.2B |
ASML | NXPI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 12 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 12 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 82 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 43 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 23 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NXPI's Valuation (12) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ASML (75) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NXPI’s stock grew somewhat faster than ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Profit vs Risk Rating (27) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NXPI (82) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew somewhat faster than NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NXPI (43) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NXPI (50) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as NXPI (23) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
| ARM | ASML | NXPI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | N/A | 2 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 5 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 67% | 17 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 65% |
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ARM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARM has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARM jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | 100% | +2.71% | ||
| LRCX - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| KLAC - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| AMAT - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | +1.81% | ||
| FORM - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | +7.46% | ||
| VECO - ARM | 66% Closely correlated | +0.21% | ||
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ASML and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASML has been closely correlated with ASMLF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASML jumps, then ASMLF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASML | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 100% | +3.47% | ||
| ASMLF - ASML | 85% Closely correlated | +2.42% | ||
| ASMIY - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | +2.09% | ||
| LRCX - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| KLAC - ASML | 79% Closely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| AMAT - ASML | 77% Closely correlated | +1.81% | ||
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