Advertisement
ARM or MTSI or NXPI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arm Holdings (ARM) vs. MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) vs. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ARM trades at a premium P/E of over 140x amid AI-driven royalty growth but faces recent share declines of around 4% weekly, reflecting valuation concerns.
- MTSI leads YTD performance with 26% gains, fueled by record revenue in data centers and industrial defense, alongside strong Q1 bookings.
- NXPI shows resilience in automotive and industrial segments with upbeat Q1 guidance, despite a 20% four-week pullback and communications weakness.
- All three benefit from semiconductor tailwinds in AI and data infrastructure, but MTSI exhibits superior recent momentum with robust end-market demand.
- Relative valuations vary: ARM at elevated multiples, NXPI around 24x trailing P/E, highlighting trade-offs in growth versus stability.
Introduction
In the semiconductor sector, ARM, MTSI, and NXPI stand out for their roles in AI, data centers, automotive, and connectivity applications. This comparison analyzes their recent market positioning, performance drivers, and relative strengths amid evolving demand for high-performance chips. Traders seeking momentum plays and investors eyeing long-term sector exposure will find value in understanding their contrasts in growth trajectories, end-market diversification, and sensitivity to broader tech sentiment shifts.
ARM Overview and Recent Performance
Arm Holdings plc (ARM) designs energy-efficient processor architectures licensed across mobile, data centers, and AI applications. Recent market activity has seen shares decline about 4% in a single session amid valuation debates, despite strong AI prospects. Royalty revenue hit records, up 27% year-over-year in the latest quarter, driven by data center and high-end smartphone adoption. Partnerships in AI networking bolster sentiment, though premium pricing—P/E exceeding 140x—has sparked caution. Broader infrastructure demand supports resilience, with YTD gains around 4% reflecting sustained royalty momentum.
MTSI Overview and Recent Performance
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) specializes in analog semiconductors for RF, microwave, and optical applications in data centers, telecom, and defense. Recent weeks highlight robust performance, with Q1 fiscal 2026 revenue reaching $271.6 million, up 24.5% year-over-year, powered by record industrial & defense and data center growth. Shares surged post-earnings on stronger-than-expected outlook, contributing to 26% YTD returns and 119% over the past year. Book-to-bill exceeded 1.3x, signaling sustained demand, though recent pullbacks of 3-6% reflect sector volatility.
NXPI Overview and Recent Performance
NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) focuses on secure connectivity solutions for automotive, industrial IoT, and mobile markets. Recent performance includes a 20% four-week decline, pressured by softer Q1 guidance and communications infrastructure weakness down 18%. However, Q4 revenue beat estimates, with automotive rebounding and "physical AI" demand in logistics and robotics providing uplift. YTD returns stand at about 12%, with a trailing P/E near 24x offering relative value. Forward outlook anticipates sequential stability in key segments.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page curates the platform's top-performing AI trading bots from hundreds available, each trained on thousands of tickers with diverse strategies like swing trading, pattern recognition, and sector rotation. Only those excelling in current volatility—such as AI-driven models yielding up to 192% annualized returns in aerospace/defense or 112% in semiconductors—earn a spot, often boasting win rates above 70-90% and profit factors over 2.0. These bots adapt across timeframes, from intraday to long-term, capturing momentum in tech and cyclical sectors. Explore Trending AI Robots to deploy proven performers tailored to today's market.
Head-to-Head Comparison
ARM’s IP licensing model offers high margins (gross over 96%) and AI exposure via royalties, contrasting MTSI and NXPI’s fabless manufacturing in analog/RF chips. Growth drivers diverge: ARM rides data center royalties, MTSI excels in data center optics and defense (35-40% FY growth), while NXPI leverages automotive electrification. Recent momentum favors MTSI (26% YTD) over NXPI’s dips and ARM’s volatility. Risks include ARM’s lofty valuation sensitivity, MTSI’s concentration in high-growth niches, and NXPI’s industrial cyclicality. Sector overlaps in AI infrastructure pit them competitively, with NXPI’s dividend adding stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward MTSI based on consistent trend strength, superior YTD momentum, and robust bookings in data centers and defense—key growth areas. While ARM holds AI royalty upside and NXPI offers automotive stability, MTSI’s relative positioning suggests higher probability of outperformance in prevailing conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARM’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMTSI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and NXPI’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- ARM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTSI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NXPI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTSI’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and NXPI’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MTSI’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NXPI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ARM (@Semiconductors) experienced а +0.46% price change this week, while MTSI (@Semiconductors) price change was +3.95% , and NXPI (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +5.72% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +5.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.74%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARM is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
MTSI is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
NXPI is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+5.71% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ARM | MTSI | NXPI | |
| Capitalization | 159B | 18.6B | 52B |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 259M | 3.96B |
| Gain YTD | 37.037 | 44.623 | -4.756 |
| P/E Ratio | 199.73 | 112.09 | 25.87 |
| Revenue | 4.67B | 1.02B | 12.3B |
| Total Cash | 3.54B | 768M | 2.91B |
| Total Debt | 461M | 531M | 12.2B |
MTSI | NXPI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 60 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 82 Overvalued | 12 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 79 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 58 | 42 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 27 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
NXPI's Valuation (12) in the Semiconductors industry is significantly better than the same rating for MTSI (82). This means that NXPI’s stock grew significantly faster than MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Semiconductors industry is significantly better than the same rating for NXPI (79). This means that MTSI’s stock grew significantly faster than NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
NXPI's SMR Rating (42) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MTSI (58). This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Price Growth Rating (36) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as NXPI (55). This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
NXPI's P/E Growth Rating (27) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MTSI (53). This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
| ARM | MTSI | NXPI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 86% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 90% | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 66% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 81% | 12 days ago 70% | 9 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 3 days ago 75% | 1 day ago 68% |
Advertisement
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| THRO | 38.36 | 0.36 | +0.95% |
| iShares U.S. Thematic Rotation ActiveETF | |||
| SAMT | 41.43 | 0.24 | +0.58% |
| Strategas Macro Thematic Opp ETF | |||
| VCLT | 75.29 | 0.02 | +0.03% |
| Vanguard Long-Term Corporate Bd ETF | |||
| ESG | 157.30 | N/A | N/A |
| FlexShares STOXX US ESG Select ETF | |||
| BILD | 31.46 | N/A | N/A |
| Nomura Global Listed Infras ETF | |||
ARM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARM has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARM jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | 100% | +0.59% | ||
| LRCX - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | +4.98% | ||
| KLAC - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | +3.28% | ||
| AMAT - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | +3.13% | ||
| FORM - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | +2.76% | ||
| TSM - ARM | 66% Closely correlated | -0.11% | ||
More | ||||
MTSI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTSI has been closely correlated with SITM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTSI jumps, then SITM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTSI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSI | 100% | +0.29% | ||
| SITM - MTSI | 71% Closely correlated | +3.05% | ||
| KLAC - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | +3.28% | ||
| LRCX - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | +4.98% | ||
| VECO - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | +2.26% | ||
| AMKR - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | +5.19% | ||
More | ||||