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ARM or MTSI or TXN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arm Holdings (ARM) vs. MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) vs. Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ARM shows robust revenue growth of 26% year-over-year driven by AI demand, but recent share price declines of around 8-12% over the past month reflect profitability concerns and high valuation at 23x sales.
- MTSI delivered strong Q4 results with 24.5% revenue growth and upbeat Q1 guidance, supporting over 100% one-year gains amid demand in data infrastructure and satellite communications.
- TXN benefits from AI data center expansion with 70% segment growth, forecasting Q1 revenue above estimates, though shares have faced monthly pressure from softer industrial recovery.
- All three operate in the semiconductor space with AI exposure, but MTSI leads in recent momentum while TXN offers stability through diversified analog chips.
- Relative performance highlights MTSI's outperformance with YTD gains near 30%, contrasting ARM's flat returns and TXN's moderate 9% YTD rise.
Introduction
In the semiconductor sector, where AI-driven demand shapes market dynamics, ARM, MTSI, and TXN represent diverse approaches to growth and innovation. ARM licenses energy-efficient CPU designs powering AI chips, MTSI specializes in high-performance analog RF solutions for telecom and defense, and TXN dominates analog and embedded processing. Traders seeking exposure to AI infrastructure, data centers, and telecom recovery, as well as long-term investors evaluating relative performance and valuation sensitivity in this stock comparison, will find these insights valuable for assessing market positioning amid ongoing sector rotation.
ARM Overview and Recent Performance
Arm Holdings plc (ARM) designs licensable CPU architectures central to mobile, infrastructure, and AI applications, with over 325 billion chips shipped. Recent market activity has seen shares decline around 4-12% over the past week to three months, closing near $115 amid broader semiconductor volatility. Revenue grew 26% year-over-year, fueled by AI and data center demand, but a 12% net income drop and a Malaysian government deal investigation have tempered sentiment. Trading at a premium 23x forward sales versus the industry's 8x, ARM reflects optimism for royalty expansion, though near-term momentum has cooled, contributing to flat year-to-date returns.
MTSI Overview and Recent Performance
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) develops analog semiconductors for RF, microwave, and lightwave applications in wireless infrastructure, defense, and data centers. Shares have shown resilience with strong recent gains, including over 100% one-year returns and nearly 30% year-to-date, despite a recent 8% weekly pullback to around $218. Q4 revenue rose 24.5% to $272 million, beating estimates, with Q1 guidance at $285 million midpoint exceeding forecasts. Robust bookings in data infrastructure and satellite communications, alongside gross margin improvements, have bolstered positive sentiment in recent weeks.
TXN Overview and Recent Performance
Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) is a leading analog and embedded processor maker serving industrial, automotive, and communications markets. Shares have experienced monthly declines of about 14%, trading near $191, but year-to-date gains stand at 9%. Data center revenue surged 70% in the recent quarter, now 9% of sales, supporting Q1 forecasts above consensus at $4.5 billion midpoint. While industrial recovery lags and tariff concerns persist, AI infrastructure demand and product launches like AI-ready microcontrollers have influenced steady performance relative to peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ARM, MTSI, and TXN share semiconductor exposure but diverge in models: ARM's IP licensing yields high margins without fabrication risks, contrasting TXN's integrated manufacturing for analog stability and MTSI's niche RF focus. Growth drivers favor MTSI and ARM via AI/data centers, while TXN balances with automotive/industrial. Recent momentum leads MTSI (30% YTD), but ARM risks premium valuations and probes; TXN offers lower volatility. All face supply chain and geopolitical risks, with TXN most sensitive to tariffs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors MTSI due to consistent trend strength, superior recent momentum with 24%+ revenue growth and raised guidance, and balanced AI/telecom catalysts amid sector recovery. While ARM holds long-term AI upside and TXN provides defensive positioning, MTSI's relative outperformance suggests higher probability of near-term gains in this stock comparison.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARM’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMTSI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and TXN’s FA Score reflects 4 green FA rating(s).
- ARM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTSI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TXN’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTSI’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and TXN’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MTSI’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TXN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ARM (@Semiconductors) experienced а +11.95% price change this week, while MTSI (@Semiconductors) price change was +7.31% , and TXN (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +7.03% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +11.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +20.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARM is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
MTSI is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
TXN is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+11.63% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ARM | MTSI | TXN | |
| Capitalization | 177B | 20.8B | 209B |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 259M | 8.25B |
| Gain YTD | 52.530 | 61.706 | 33.333 |
| P/E Ratio | 222.31 | 125.33 | 42.17 |
| Revenue | 4.67B | 1.02B | 17.7B |
| Total Cash | 3.54B | 768M | 4.88B |
| Total Debt | 461M | 531M | 14B |
MTSI | TXN | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 33 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 14 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 48 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 59 | 32 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 8 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 44 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TXN's Valuation (14) in the Semiconductors industry is significantly better than the same rating for MTSI (83). This means that TXN’s stock grew significantly faster than MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TXN (48). This means that MTSI’s stock grew somewhat faster than TXN’s over the last 12 months.
TXN's SMR Rating (32) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MTSI (59). This means that TXN’s stock grew similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
TXN's Price Growth Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MTSI (36). This means that TXN’s stock grew similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
TXN's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MTSI (44). This means that TXN’s stock grew similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
| ARM | MTSI | TXN | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 87% | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 81% | 21 days ago 70% | 21 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 45% |
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ARM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARM has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARM jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | 100% | +2.71% | ||
| LRCX - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| KLAC - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| AMAT - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | +1.81% | ||
| FORM - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | +7.46% | ||
| VECO - ARM | 66% Closely correlated | +0.19% | ||
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MTSI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTSI has been closely correlated with KLAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTSI jumps, then KLAC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTSI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSI | 100% | +5.95% | ||
| KLAC - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| LRCX - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| SITM - MTSI | 69% Closely correlated | +7.03% | ||
| VECO - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | +0.19% | ||
| AMKR - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | +7.11% | ||
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TXN and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TXN has been closely correlated with MCHP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 82% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TXN jumps, then MCHP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TXN | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXN | 100% | +3.01% | ||
| MCHP - TXN | 82% Closely correlated | +2.46% | ||
| MCHPP - TXN | 78% Closely correlated | +2.29% | ||
| NXPI - TXN | 75% Closely correlated | +1.08% | ||
| ADI - TXN | 74% Closely correlated | +4.99% | ||
| ON - TXN | 70% Closely correlated | +3.85% | ||
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