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ARM or NXPI or QCOM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Arm Holdings (ARM) vs. NXP Semiconductors (NXPI) vs. Qualcomm (QCOM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ARM leads YTD performance with gains around 23-25%, driven by AI chip announcements, outperforming peers amid recent volatility.
- NXPI shows modest YTD returns near 13%, with shares down in recent weeks due to sector pressures and insider sales, but holds steady 1-year flat performance.
- QCOM lags significantly, down 25% YTD and 15% over 1 year, facing smartphone demand weakness despite buyback programs.
- All three operate in semiconductors but differ in focus: ARM IP licensing, NXPI automotive/IoT chips, QCOM mobile/5G modems.
- Recent momentum favors ARM post-AGI CPU launch with Meta, while peers grapple with broader market declines.
- Valuations vary: QCOM cheapest at ~26x trailing P/E, ARM premium ~180-200x amid growth expectations.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines ARM, NXPI, and QCOM, three key players in the semiconductor sector powering AI, automotive, IoT (Internet of Things), and mobile technologies. Traders seeking momentum in AI-driven growth or investors eyeing relative value in a volatile market will find insights into their business models, recent price behavior, and head-to-head metrics. Amid shifting sentiment from geopolitical tensions to demand cycles, understanding their relative performance aids informed positioning in this high-stakes industry.
ARM Overview and Recent Performance
ARM Holdings plc, a British semiconductor and software design company headquartered in Cambridge, primarily licenses central processing unit (CPU) intellectual property (IP) to chipmakers for mobile, data center, and embedded applications. Its architecture dominates smartphones and is expanding in AI servers. In recent market activity, ARM shares surged up to 16% following the announcement of its first in-house AGI (AI General Intelligence) CPU for data centers, developed with Meta as a partner and entering customer sampling. YTD returns stand at approximately 23-25%, with 1-year gains around 27%, though recent weeks saw pullbacks from highs near $163 to around $137 amid broader sector rotation. Sentiment has been buoyed by AI royalty growth and diversification beyond licensing, offsetting high valuations and competition risks.
NXPI Overview and Recent Performance
NXP Semiconductors N.V., based in Eindhoven, Netherlands, designs and manufactures high-performance mixed-signal semiconductors for automotive, industrial, IoT, mobile, and communication infrastructure markets. With over 33,000 employees, it focuses on microcontrollers, processors, and sensors enabling secure connectivity. Recent performance reflects sector headwinds, with shares down about 18% over the past month and 15% YTD in some metrics, trading near $187 after pulling back from $256 highs. Influences include softer Q1 outlooks, geopolitical tensions, and $4 million in insider sales, though YTD returns hover around 13% and 1-year flat at 0.5%. Automotive and IoT exposure provides resilience amid communications weakness.
QCOM Overview and Recent Performance
QCOM, or QUALCOMM Incorporated, a San Diego-based fabless (no owned fabrication plants) semiconductor leader, develops Snapdragon processors, modems, and RF (radio frequency) systems for mobile, automotive, IoT, and edge AI, alongside licensing its vast wireless IP portfolio. Recent weeks pressured shares, down 11% monthly and 25-26% YTD, trading around $127 from peaks over $205, underperforming the S&P 500. Key factors include weakening smartphone demand, China exposure risks, and analyst downgrades, despite a $20 billion buyback and dividend hike. 1-year returns lag at -15%, with sentiment cautious on handset cycles offsetting diversification gains.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ARM’s IP licensing model yields high margins (scalable royalties) versus NXPI and QCOM’s hardware-integrated approaches, exposing ARM less to fab costs but more to ecosystem adoption. Growth drivers contrast: ARM’s AI/data center push (vCPU royalties), NXPI’s EV (electric vehicle)/industrial sensors, QCOM’s 5G/AI modems with handset reliance. Recent momentum tilts to ARM’s 16% pop on chip news, while NXPI and QCOM trail with 18% and 11% monthly drops amid inventory and demand risks. NXPI’s automotive stability offsets cyclicality versus QCOM’s China/geopolitical vulnerabilities; ARM faces lofty multiples (~180x P/E). Sector exposure: all heavy semis, but ARM pure-play AI benefits, NXPI diversified IoT/auto, QCOM mobile-tilted. Valuation sensitivity highest for ARM (premium pricing), QCOM attractive (~26x), NXPI mid (~24x). Sentiment favors ARM’s catalysts, trading off peers’ relative stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ARM for its superior trend consistency in AI/data center momentum, recent AGI CPU catalyst with partners like Meta, and YTD outperformance positioning it ahead in growth prospects. While NXPI offers automotive ballast and QCOM value via buybacks, ARM’s relative strength and observable AI tailwinds suggest higher probabilistic upside in the near term, balanced against volatility.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ARM’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileNXPI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and QCOM’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- ARM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NXPI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- QCOM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ARM’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NXPI’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and QCOM’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ARM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NXPI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- QCOM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ARM (@Semiconductors) experienced а +11.95% price change this week, while NXPI (@Semiconductors) price change was +5.71% , and QCOM (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +6.36% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +11.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +20.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
ARM is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
NXPI is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
QCOM is expected to report earnings on Apr 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Semiconductors (+11.63% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ARM | NXPI | QCOM | |
| Capitalization | 177B | 54.6B | 145B |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 3.96B | 14.8B |
| Gain YTD | 52.530 | 0.042 | -19.863 |
| P/E Ratio | 222.31 | 27.17 | 27.46 |
| Revenue | 4.67B | 12.3B | 44.9B |
| Total Cash | 3.54B | 2.91B | 11.8B |
| Total Debt | 461M | 12.2B | 14.8B |
NXPI | QCOM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 18 | 13 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 12 Undervalued | 9 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 82 | 87 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 43 | 43 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 23 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
QCOM's Valuation (9) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as NXPI (12) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that QCOM’s stock grew similarly to NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
NXPI's Profit vs Risk Rating (82) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as QCOM (87) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to QCOM’s over the last 12 months.
NXPI's SMR Rating (43) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as QCOM (43) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to QCOM’s over the last 12 months.
NXPI's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as QCOM (61) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry. This means that NXPI’s stock grew similarly to QCOM’s over the last 12 months.
QCOM's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Telecommunications Equipment industry is in the same range as NXPI (23) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that QCOM’s stock grew similarly to NXPI’s over the last 12 months.
| ARM | NXPI | QCOM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 87% | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 86% | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 81% | 18 days ago 68% | 13 days ago 73% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 68% |
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ARM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ARM has been closely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ARM jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ARM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARM | 100% | +2.71% | ||
| LRCX - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| KLAC - ARM | 74% Closely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| AMAT - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | +1.81% | ||
| FORM - ARM | 73% Closely correlated | +7.46% | ||
| VECO - ARM | 66% Closely correlated | +0.19% | ||
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