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ASML or FN or MPWR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. Fabrinet (FN) vs. Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML Holding (ASML), the leader in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography equipment, shows YTD gains of about 17% but recent pullbacks amid sector selloffs, trading at a trailing P/E of around 44x with a $492B market cap.
- Fabrinet (FN), a precision optical and electro-mechanical manufacturer, delivered strong Q2 revenue growth of 36% YoY to $1.13B, with YTD returns near 8% and 1-year gains over 150%, market cap around $20B.
- Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) specializes in power management semiconductors for AI data centers, posting YTD gains of roughly 8% despite recent volatility, with a high P/E above 80x and market cap near $52B.
- All three benefit from AI-driven semiconductor demand, but recent weeks saw declines of 4-11% due to broader chip sector pressures like geopolitical tensions.
- ASML offers scale and monopoly-like positioning; FN provides manufacturing agility; MPWR targets high-growth power efficiency in servers.
- Relative performance highlights FN's outsized 1-year momentum, while ASML leads in long-term stability.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines ASML, FN, and MPWR, key players in the semiconductor supply chain powering AI infrastructure. ASML dominates lithography equipment essential for advanced chip production, Fabrinet excels in optical packaging for data centers, and Monolithic Power Systems provides efficient power solutions for servers. Traders seeking exposure to AI growth and investors tracking relative performance in volatile markets will benefit from analyzing their business models, recent momentum, and sector ties. Amid surging demand for chips, these stocks highlight contrasts in scale, growth drivers, and risk profiles.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) is the world's leading provider of photolithography systems, particularly extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines critical for manufacturing cutting-edge semiconductors used in AI, smartphones, and high-performance computing. With a near-monopoly in EUV technology, ASML serves major foundries like TSMC and Intel. In recent market activity, the stock experienced pullbacks of around 8% over the past month and 4% in recent sessions, reflecting broader semiconductor sector pressures from geopolitical tensions and supply chain concerns. Year-to-date gains stand at approximately 17%, outperforming broader indices, supported by strong 2025 revenue of €32.67B (up 15.6% YoY) and optimistic analyst forecasts for earnings growth. Sentiment remains positive due to AI-driven backlogs, though export restrictions to China have tempered near-term orders, influencing volatility with a beta of 1.43.
FN Overview and Recent Performance
Fabrinet (FN) operates as a contract manufacturer specializing in advanced optical packaging, precision electro-mechanical assembly, and electronic manufacturing services for optical communications, serving OEMs in telecom, datacom, and high-performance computing. Its Thailand-based facilities enable cost-effective production of complex components like transceivers for data centers. Recent performance showed robust Q2 fiscal 2026 results with revenue of $1.13B (up 36% YoY) and non-GAAP EPS of $3.36, beating estimates, driven by telecom growth of 59%. The stock surged over 150% in the past year but faced sharp declines of 11% recently and 11% monthly amid sector selloffs. YTD returns hover around 8%, with momentum from AI-related optical demand, though customer concentration (e.g., Nvidia, Cisco) adds risk. Volatility reflects its beta near 1.5, balanced by diversified end-markets.
MPWR Overview and Recent Performance
Monolithic Power Systems, Inc. (MPWR) designs high-performance analog and mixed-signal semiconductors focused on power management solutions, including DC-DC converters for enterprise data centers, automotive, and industrial applications. Its fabless model leverages advanced processes for energy-efficient chips vital to AI servers. In recent weeks, shares declined about 5% amid chip sector weakness tied to geopolitical risks, with monthly drops near 13%. YTD performance is around 8%, following strong Q4 revenue of $751M (up 21% YoY) fueled by AI demand. Forecasts project 20-25% earnings growth, supporting premium valuations, though insider selling and supply chain dependencies have pressured sentiment. Beta around 1.7 underscores higher volatility compared to peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML, FN, and MPWR anchor distinct semiconductor niches: ASML's equipment monopoly contrasts FN's agile manufacturing and MPWR's specialized power ICs (integrated circuits). Growth drivers center on AI—ASML via EUV for advanced nodes, FN through optical transceivers for data interconnects, MPWR powering servers with efficient converters—yielding 15-36% recent revenue lifts. Recent momentum favors FN's 150% 1-year surge over ASML's 88% and MPWR's 67%, though all faced 4-11% recent dips. Risks include ASML's export curbs (China ~33% sales), FN's customer reliance (Nvidia 28%), and MPWR's foundry dependence. Sector exposure ties them to tech cycles, with betas 1.4-1.7 signaling volatility. Valuations reflect premiums: ASML at 44x P/E ($492B cap), MPWR >80x ($52B), FN more moderate post-rally. Sentiment contrasts ASML's scale stability with peers' growth trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ASML among the trio, citing its unmatched trend consistency from massive EUV backlogs, relative stability despite beta, and pivotal positioning in the AI chip supply chain. While FN's manufacturing momentum and MPWR's server catalysts impress, ASML's scale and probabilistic edge in sustained demand make it the preferred choice in recent market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileFN’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and MPWR’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- FN’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MPWR’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FN’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and MPWR’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- FN’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MPWR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -1.25% price change this week, while FN (@Electronic Components) price change was +1.47% , and MPWR (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +8.46% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +8.26%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +29.01%, and the average quarterly price growth was +117.44%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Components industry was +4.16%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +13.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was +26.26%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +10.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +24.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was +26.97%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
FN is expected to report earnings on May 11, 2026.
MPWR is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+8.26% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Electronic Components (+4.16% weekly)The Electronic Components industry produces electronic equipment for industries and consumer electronics products, such as mobile devices, televisions, and circuit boards. TE Connectivity Ltd, for example, is a company that designs and manufactures connectivity and sensor products for harsh environments in various industries, such as automotive, industrial equipment, aerospace, and oil & gas. Another major player, Corning Inc., makes advanced optics including end-to-end fiber and wireless solutions for communications networks along with various other technologies catering to industrial and scientific applications.
@Semiconductors (+10.10% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ASML | FN | MPWR | |
| Capitalization | 564B | 25.1B | 73.2B |
| EBITDA | 12.6B | 466M | 781M |
| Gain YTD | 36.810 | 53.754 | 64.818 |
| P/E Ratio | 48.51 | 67.12 | 115.93 |
| Revenue | 32.7B | 3.89B | 2.79B |
| Total Cash | 13.3B | 961M | 581M |
| Total Debt | 4.39B | 4.89M | 15.1M |
ASML | FN | MPWR | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 73 Overvalued | 84 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 4 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 46 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 35 | 2 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 6 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FN's Valuation (73) in the Electronic Components industry is in the same range as ASML (75) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is in the same range as MPWR (84) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that FN's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and similarly to MPWR’s over the last 12 months.
FN's Profit vs Risk Rating (4) in the Electronic Components industry is in the same range as MPWR (19) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as ASML (27) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that FN's stock grew similarly to MPWR’s and similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as FN (46) in the Electronic Components industry, and is in the same range as MPWR (46) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to FN’s and similarly to MPWR’s over the last 12 months.
MPWR's Price Growth Rating (2) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FN (35) in the Electronic Components industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for ASML (39) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that MPWR's stock grew somewhat faster than FN’s and somewhat faster than ASML’s over the last 12 months.
MPWR's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as FN (6) in the Electronic Components industry, and is in the same range as ASML (14) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that MPWR's stock grew similarly to FN’s and similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | FN | MPWR | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 80% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 87% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 72% | 8 days ago 80% | 4 days ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 67% | N/A | 6 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 67% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 78% | 4 days ago 79% |
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ASML and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASML has been closely correlated with ASMLF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASML jumps, then ASMLF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASML | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 100% | +3.47% | ||
| ASMLF - ASML | 85% Closely correlated | +2.42% | ||
| ASMIY - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | +2.09% | ||
| LRCX - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| KLAC - ASML | 79% Closely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| AMAT - ASML | 77% Closely correlated | +1.81% | ||
More | ||||
MPWR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MPWR has been closely correlated with KLAC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MPWR jumps, then KLAC could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MPWR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPWR | 100% | +1.53% | ||
| KLAC - MPWR | 74% Closely correlated | +0.77% | ||
| LRCX - MPWR | 73% Closely correlated | -1.66% | ||
| NXPI - MPWR | 73% Closely correlated | +2.46% | ||
| AMAT - MPWR | 70% Closely correlated | -1.34% | ||
| KLIC - MPWR | 70% Closely correlated | +1.78% | ||
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