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ASML or FSLR or MTSI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. First Solar (FSLR) vs. MACOM Technology Solutions (MTSI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML leads with robust EUV backlog fueled by AI demand, YTD gains around 29%, and analyst price target upgrades like Bank of America's to $1,886.
- FSLR faces headwinds from weak 2026 sales guidance, policy uncertainty including permitting delays and tariffs, resulting in a 26% three-month decline.
- MTSI shows strength with in-line Q1 results, record bookings, 1.3x book-to-bill ratio, and raised data center growth outlook to 35-40%.
- ASML and MTSI benefit from semiconductor and data center momentum, while FSLR lags due to solar sector challenges.
- Relative YTD performance: ASML ~29%, MTSI ~30%, FSLR -23%, highlighting tech-driven outperformance.
- Market caps reflect scale: ASML ~$530B, FSLR ~$21B, MTSI ~$16B.
Introduction
This stock comparison evaluates ASML, FSLR, and MTSI amid a dynamic market environment shaped by AI expansion, renewable energy policy shifts, and semiconductor demand. ASML dominates lithography for advanced chips, FSLR leads in thin-film solar modules, and MTSI supplies analog semiconductors for RF and data infrastructure. Traders seeking exposure to tech growth and investors assessing relative performance in semiconductors versus solar will find insights into recent momentum, sector drivers, and positioning. The analysis draws from recent market activity to highlight contrasts in business resilience and sentiment.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V., headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands, is the global leader in photolithography systems, particularly extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines essential for manufacturing advanced semiconductors. Its monopoly in EUV technology positions it as a critical enabler for AI chips produced by foundries like TSMC and Intel. In recent market activity, ASML shares have advanced amid broader strength in the semiconductor sector, with YTD returns around 29% and one-year gains exceeding 100%. Sentiment has been bolstered by a huge surge in bookings driven by AI demand, robust EUV backlog, and analyst optimism despite geopolitical tensions with China. Bank of America raised its price target to $1,886, citing long-term growth potential, while the stock has shown resilience with advances even as broader indices declined.
FSLR Overview and Recent Performance
First Solar, Inc. (FSLR), based in Tempe, Arizona, is the leading U.S. manufacturer of thin-film photovoltaic solar modules using cadmium telluride technology, offering a lower carbon footprint alternative to crystalline silicon panels. The company serves utilities, commercial projects, and large energy buyers globally. Recent weeks have seen FSLR underperform, with shares declining around 26% over three months and YTD returns at -23%, lagging the S&P 500. Key pressures include a Q4 earnings miss, disappointing 2026 sales guidance below expectations at $4.9-5.2 billion, and anticipated $125-135 million tariff impacts. Policy uncertainty, such as permitting delays under the current administration, has weighed on customer projects and backlog, prompting analyst downgrades and price target cuts.
MTSI Overview and Recent Performance
MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI), headquartered in Lowell, Massachusetts, designs and manufactures analog semiconductors for RF, microwave, millimeter wave, and lightwave applications in wireless infrastructure, defense, and data centers. Recent performance has been strong, with YTD returns near 30% and one-year gains over 120%, reflecting momentum in high-growth areas. Q1 fiscal 2026 results met expectations with $271.6 million in revenue (up 24.5% YoY) and adjusted EPS of $1.02, aided by sequential gross margin improvement and one of the strongest booking quarters in years at a 1.3x book-to-bill ratio. Raised data center growth outlook to 35-40% on 1.6T optical demand has supported positive sentiment, though shares saw short-term pullbacks amid broader volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML, FSLR, and MTSI operate in energy-intensive tech sectors but diverge sharply in models and drivers. ASML's equipment monopoly for AI chips yields massive scale (~$530B market cap) and growth from EUV demand, contrasting MTSI's nimble analog components for data centers and defense (~$16B cap), which offer higher agility but cyclical exposure. FSLR (~$21B cap) focuses on solar manufacturing amid policy risks, lacking the AI tailwinds propelling the others. Recent momentum favors ASML and MTSI with 29-30% YTD gains versus FSLR's -23%. Valuation sensitivity shows ASML at ~37-48x P/E reflecting premium positioning, while risks include FSLR's tariff and permitting vulnerabilities versus the semis' geopolitical tensions. Market sentiment tilts toward AI/semiconductor stability over solar trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ASML due to its unmatched trend consistency in AI-driven EUV demand, substantial backlog stability, and relative outperformance amid sector strength. MTSI ranks closely with strong bookings and data center catalysts, while FSLR trails on guidance shortfalls. Observable factors like momentum and positioning suggest higher probability of continued leadership for ASML in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileFSLR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and MTSI’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- FSLR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTSI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FSLR’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and MTSI’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- FSLR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MTSI’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а +9.98% price change this week, while FSLR (@Alternative Power Generation) price change was +0.99% , and MTSI (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +3.95% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +10.01%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was +83.74%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Alternative Power Generation industry was -1.79%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.82%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.11%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +5.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was +16.74%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Apr 15, 2026.
FSLR is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
MTSI is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+10.01% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Alternative Power Generation (-1.79% weekly)The alternative power generation industry consists of companies that operate power facilities converting non-conventional forms of energy into electricity. These energy forms are alternatives to fossil fuels, and many of them are derived from natural resources. Alternative energy forms include solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal steam. A major purpose behind using alternative energy – also called ‘clean’ energy - is to address concerns related to the more conventional fossil fuels, such as the latter’s high carbon dioxide emissions which is often considered a factor in global warming. Alternative power generation has been gaining traction in recent years, and could grow further in the future. Large organizations like Google have invested substantially in wind and solar energy-powered electricity. Some of the prominent U.S. companies operating in the alternative power generation industry includes Ormat Technologies, Inc., TerraForm Power, Inc. and NextEra Energy Partners LP.
@Semiconductors (+5.71% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ASML | FSLR | MTSI | |
| Capitalization | 546B | 21.2B | 18.6B |
| EBITDA | 12.6B | 2.15B | 259M |
| Gain YTD | 35.765 | -24.492 | 44.623 |
| P/E Ratio | 50.17 | 13.88 | 112.09 |
| Revenue | 32.7B | 5.22B | 1.02B |
| Total Cash | 13.3B | 2.86B | 768M |
| Total Debt | 4.39B | 655M | 531M |
ASML | FSLR | MTSI | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 15 | 24 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 91 Overvalued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 62 | 12 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 49 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 53 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 31 | 53 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ASML's Valuation (78) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as MTSI (82) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as FSLR (91) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to MTSI’s and similarly to FSLR’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (26) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for FSLR (62) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that MTSI's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and somewhat faster than FSLR’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as FSLR (49) in the Electronic Components industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MTSI (58) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to FSLR’s and somewhat faster than MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Price Growth Rating (36) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (38) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is in the same range as FSLR (53) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that MTSI's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and similarly to FSLR’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as FSLR (31) in the Electronic Components industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MTSI (53) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to FSLR’s and somewhat faster than MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | FSLR | MTSI | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 76% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 84% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 10 days ago 80% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 67% | 19 days ago 78% | 12 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 88% | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 87% | 3 days ago 75% |
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MTSI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTSI has been closely correlated with SITM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTSI jumps, then SITM could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MTSI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTSI | 100% | +0.29% | ||
| SITM - MTSI | 71% Closely correlated | +3.05% | ||
| KLAC - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | +3.28% | ||
| LRCX - MTSI | 70% Closely correlated | +4.98% | ||
| VECO - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | +2.26% | ||
| AMKR - MTSI | 68% Closely correlated | +5.19% | ||
More | ||||