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ASML or MCHP or TXN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) vs. Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) vs. Texas Instruments Incorporated (TXN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML leads with strong YTD gains around 23%, driven by AI chip demand, but faces recent pullbacks of about 6% in recent weeks amid valuation concerns.
- MCHP shows recovery signs with raised guidance, yet trails with negative YTD returns near -1% to -3% and sharper recent declines around 18-22% monthly.
- TXN offers relative stability with positive YTD performance of 7-9%, despite 15-19% pullbacks in recent market activity, bolstered by AI data center innovations.
- All three operate in semiconductors but differ in focus: ASML in advanced lithography equipment, MCHP in microcontrollers and analog, TXN in analog and embedded processing.
- Recent sentiment reflects sector volatility, with AI catalysts supporting long-term growth across the board while short-term pressures weigh on prices.
- Tickeron AI bots targeting semiconductors, including those trading ASML, show annualized returns up to 112%.
Introduction
This comparison examines ASML, MCHP, and TXN, key players in the semiconductor ecosystem amid surging AI and data center demand. ASML Holding N.V. dominates lithography for cutting-edge chips, while Microchip Technology Incorporated and Texas Instruments Incorporated excel in analog and embedded solutions for industrial, automotive, and computing applications. Traders seeking exposure to semiconductor growth and investors tracking relative performance in a volatile sector will find value in analyzing their recent momentum, business models, and market positioning. With the industry navigating inventory cycles and geopolitical tensions, this head-to-head highlights contrasts in growth drivers and risk profiles.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V., headquartered in Veldhoven, Netherlands, is the leading supplier of photolithography machines, particularly extreme ultraviolet (EUV) systems critical for advanced chip production by foundries like TSMC. In recent market activity, ASML shares have pulled back around 3-6% weekly and 6% monthly from peaks near $1,547, trading around $1,317 as of late March 2026. Despite this softness, YTD gains stand at approximately 23%, reflecting robust long-term demand for AI-enabled semiconductors. Sentiment has been influenced by mixed analyst views on valuations—some see overvaluation amid a premium P/E near 50—offset by strong bookings and EUV expansions. Broader concerns include U.S.-China trade tensions delaying orders, yet record backlogs underscore sustained growth prospects in high-performance computing.
MCHP Overview and Recent Performance
Microchip Technology Incorporated, based in Chandler, Arizona, provides microcontrollers, analog, and mixed-signal solutions for industrial, automotive, and consumer markets. Recent weeks have seen MCHP under pressure, with shares declining about 1-2% weekly and 18-22% over the past month, trading near $63. YTD performance lags at -1% to -3%, reflecting ongoing inventory normalization and softer industrial demand. Positive factors include raised Q3 revenue guidance on strong bookings and new products like SiC power modules and cybersecurity platforms, signaling multi-year growth toward $6.6 billion revenue by 2028. Sentiment balances recovery optimism with near-term profitability challenges from compliance costs, positioning MCHP for rebound as end-markets stabilize.
TXN Overview and Recent Performance
Texas Instruments Incorporated, headquartered in Dallas, Texas, designs analog and embedded processing chips essential for power management and signal processing across electronics. In recent market activity, TXN has retreated 3-4% weekly and 15-19% monthly from highs near $231, closing around $187. YTD returns remain positive at 7-9%, outperforming peers amid sector volatility. Key drivers include the launch of 800V power architecture for AI data centers with NVIDIA compatibility, enhancing efficiency in high-demand applications. Valuation concerns and industrial softness have tempered enthusiasm, but analysts note inflection in free cash flow and robust analog positioning, fostering steady sentiment.
Trending AI Robots
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML’s equipment model ties it to cyclical capex for advanced nodes, offering explosive growth from AI but higher volatility and geopolitical risks versus MCHP and TXN’s steadier analog/embedded focus on diverse end-markets like auto and industrial. Growth drivers contrast: ASML leverages EUV monopoly for 20-30%+ revenue potential, while MCHP targets microcontroller recovery and TXN emphasizes power efficiency for data centers. Recent momentum favors ASML’s 23% YTD over TXN’s 8% and MCHP’s -2%, but all face 6-22% monthly dips from sector rotation. Risks include ASML’s trade exposure, MCHP’s inventory overhang, and TXN’s valuation at P/E ~30. Sector ties amplify AI upside, yet ASML’s premium sensitivity trades off against peers’ dividend stability and broader exposure.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ASML for its superior trend consistency in AI-driven lithography demand, evidenced by 23% YTD gains and bots achieving 92%+ annualized returns on ASML-inclusive strategies. While MCHP and TXN provide stability, ASML’s catalysts like record backlogs position it probabilistically stronger for relative outperformance amid semiconductor upcycles.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileMCHP’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and TXN’s FA Score reflects 4 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MCHP’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TXN’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MCHP’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and TXN’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MCHP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TXN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -1.58% price change this week, while MCHP (@Semiconductors) price change was +10.06% , and TXN (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +7.84% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +9.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +30.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was +121.55%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +10.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +24.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was +26.97%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
MCHP is expected to report earnings on May 11, 2026.
TXN is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+9.07% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (+10.10% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ASML | MCHP | TXN | |
| Capitalization | 564B | 43.5B | 213B |
| EBITDA | 12.6B | 877M | 8.25B |
| Gain YTD | 38.376 | 26.904 | 35.584 |
| P/E Ratio | 48.51 | 86.21 | 42.88 |
| Revenue | 32.7B | 4.37B | 17.7B |
| Total Cash | 13.3B | 251M | 4.88B |
| Total Debt | 4.39B | 5.41B | 14B |
ASML | MCHP | TXN | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 14 Undervalued | 14 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 88 | 45 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 91 | 32 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 7 | 8 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 6 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MCHP's Valuation (14) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TXN (14) in the Semiconductors industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for ASML (75) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that MCHP's stock grew similarly to TXN’s and somewhat faster than ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's Profit vs Risk Rating (27) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TXN (45) in the Semiconductors industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MCHP (88) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to TXN’s and somewhat faster than MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TXN (32) in the Semiconductors industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for MCHP (91) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to TXN’s and significantly faster than MCHP’s over the last 12 months.
MCHP's Price Growth Rating (7) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TXN (8) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as ASML (39) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that MCHP's stock grew similarly to TXN’s and similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
MCHP's P/E Growth Rating (6) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (14) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is in the same range as TXN (24) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that MCHP's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and similarly to TXN’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | MCHP | TXN | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 62% | 4 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 67% | 22 days ago 73% | 22 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 45% |
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MCHP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MCHP has been closely correlated with MCHPP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 96% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MCHP jumps, then MCHPP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MCHP | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCHP | 100% | +2.07% | ||
| MCHPP - MCHP | 96% Closely correlated | +1.76% | ||
| NXPI - MCHP | 85% Closely correlated | +2.46% | ||
| ON - MCHP | 80% Closely correlated | +3.07% | ||
| TXN - MCHP | 77% Closely correlated | +1.69% | ||
| KLIC - MCHP | 75% Closely correlated | +1.78% | ||
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