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ASML or MRVL or NVDA
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. Marvell Technology (MRVL) vs. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML leads YTD performance with gains around 23%, driven by record bookings and EUV demand for AI chip production, though recent weeks saw a 3.6% pullback.
- MRVL reported record Q4 revenue of $2.22B (up 22% YoY) and fiscal 2026 revenue of $8.2B (up 42%), fueled by AI data center growth, with shares stabilizing after post-earnings surge.
- NVDA posted record Q4 revenue of $68.1B (up 73% YoY), with data center at $62.3B, but YTD down ~7% amid market rotations and high expectations.
- All three benefit from AI infrastructure boom, with ASML's monopoly in lithography, MRVL's custom chips, and NVDA's GPUs showing contrasting momentum in recent market activity.
- Valuations reflect growth: ASML P/E ~46x, MRVL ~29x, NVDA ~35x, highlighting trade-offs in risk and upside.
- Semiconductor sector exposure ties performance to AI capex, with relative strength varying by supply chain position.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines ASML, MRVL, and NVDA, key players in the semiconductor ecosystem powering AI and data center expansion. ASML dominates lithography equipment, MRVL excels in custom networking chips, and NVDA leads in GPUs. Traders seeking short-term momentum and investors eyeing long-term AI growth will find value in analyzing their recent performance, valuations, and sector interdependencies amid surging demand for advanced chips. This overview highlights relative strengths for informed positioning in the evolving chip landscape.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V. is the global leader in photolithography systems, holding a near-monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools essential for manufacturing advanced semiconductors by foundries like TSMC. Its business model centers on high-margin equipment sales, services, and upgrades, with a €38.8B backlog signaling sustained demand. In recent market activity, shares gained ~23% YTD and 85% over the past year, driven by AI-fueled chip production needs, though a 3.6% dip in recent weeks reflected broader sector rotation. Q4 2025 net sales hit €9.7B, full-year €32.7B (up 31%), with gross margin at 52.8% and EPS €24.73. Sentiment benefits from High-NA EUV advancements and 2026 guidance of €34-39B sales, tempered by China export curbs normalizing to ~20% of revenue.
MRVL Overview and Recent Performance
Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL) designs fabless semiconductors for data infrastructure, specializing in custom AI chips, interconnects, and networking solutions for data centers, carriers, and enterprises. Its model emphasizes high-growth custom silicon and Ethernet adapters, with data center revenue comprising ~74% of total. Recent weeks showed stabilization around $88 after a post-Q4 surge of 18%, with YTD up ~3.5% and 25% over one year, outperforming amid AI demand. Fiscal Q4 revenue reached a record $2.22B (up 22% YoY), full-year $8.2B (up 42%), non-GAAP gross margin 59%, and EPS $0.80 beating estimates. Multi-year AI forecasts and deals like Celestial AI bolster sentiment, despite inventory challenges.
NVDA Overview and Recent Performance
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) pioneers GPU-accelerated computing, dominating AI with data center platforms like Blackwell, alongside gaming and automotive segments. Its full-stack model integrates hardware, software, and CUDA ecosystem for AI training/inference. Recent market activity featured volatility, with YTD down ~7% and a 3-6% weekly drop, despite 46-48% one-year gains, due to high valuations and rotation from megacaps. Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue hit record $68.1B (up 73% YoY), data center $62.3B (up 75%), full-year $215.9B (up 65%). Q1 guidance ~$78B exceeded estimates, supported by Blackwell ramp and agentic AI demand, though geopolitical tensions weigh on sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML, MRVL, and NVDA anchor the AI chip supply chain: ASML's EUV monopoly enables advanced nodes, MRVL provides interconnects/custom ASICs, and NVDA delivers end-GPUs. Growth drivers diverge—ASML ties to foundry capex (backlog €38B+), MRVL to hyperscaler custom demand (data center 74%), NVDA to inference/training (91% revenue). Recent momentum favors ASML (23% YTD) over NVDA's dip, with MRVL stable post-earnings. Risks include ASML/China curbs, MRVL/inventory, NVDA/competition. Valuations show MRVL cheapest (~29x P/E), ASML premium (46x) for stability, NVDA (35x) growth-sensitive. Sentiment leans bullish on AI tailwinds, with ASML least cyclical.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ASML with the highest probability of outperformance, owing to trend consistency via record bookings, YTD leadership, and essential positioning in AI chip fabrication amid 2026 guidance of €34-39B sales. MRVL offers value with accelerating AI revenue, while NVDA holds catalysts like Blackwell but faces valuation pressures—positioning hinges on sustained AI capex.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileMRVL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and NVDA’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MRVL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NVDA’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MRVL’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and NVDA’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MRVL’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVDA’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -1.25% price change this week, while MRVL (@Semiconductors) price change was +8.72% , and NVDA (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +6.92% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +10.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +23.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +116.53%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +11.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +20.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
MRVL is expected to report earnings on May 21, 2026.
NVDA is expected to report earnings on May 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+10.31% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (+11.63% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ASML | MRVL | NVDA | |
| Capitalization | 565B | 122B | 4.9T |
| EBITDA | 12.6B | 4.54B | 145B |
| Gain YTD | 36.810 | 64.580 | 8.145 |
| P/E Ratio | 47.81 | 45.50 | 41.16 |
| Revenue | 32.7B | 8.2B | 216B |
| Total Cash | 13.3B | 2.64B | 62.6B |
| Total Debt | 4.39B | 4.79B | 11B |
ASML | MRVL | NVDA | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 47 | 32 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 71 Overvalued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 42 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 45 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 35 | 13 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 29 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MRVL's Valuation (71) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (75) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is in the same range as NVDA (78) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that MRVL's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (27) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MRVL (42) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that NVDA's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and somewhat faster than MRVL’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's SMR Rating (13) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is in the same range as MRVL (45) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that NVDA's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and similarly to MRVL’s over the last 12 months.
NVDA's Price Growth Rating (13) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as MRVL (35) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as ASML (39) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that NVDA's stock grew similarly to MRVL’s and similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as MRVL (29) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as NVDA (43) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to MRVL’s and similarly to NVDA’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | MRVL | NVDA | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 54% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 77% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | N/A | 3 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 72% | 5 days ago 76% | 5 days ago 82% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 21 days ago 73% | 21 days ago 68% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 85% | 3 days ago 68% |
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MRVL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MRVL has been loosely correlated with LRCX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MRVL jumps, then LRCX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MRVL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRVL | 100% | +4.74% | ||
| LRCX - MRVL | 65% Loosely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| ENTG - MRVL | 64% Loosely correlated | +7.46% | ||
| TOELY - MRVL | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.15% | ||
| KLAC - MRVL | 61% Loosely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| KLIC - MRVL | 61% Loosely correlated | +2.79% | ||
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