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ASML or MTSI or NVTS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) vs. MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc. (MTSI) vs. Navitas Semiconductor Corporation (NVTS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML leads with market dominance in EUV lithography, YTD gains around 29%, and strong AI chip exposure, but trades at a premium P/E of about 49x.
- MTSI shows robust YTD performance of 31% and 1-year returns over 100%, driven by data center and 5G innovations like PCIe 7.0 equalizers.
- NVTS exhibits high volatility with YTD gains near 41% and explosive 1-year growth over 270%, fueled by new GaN/SiC packages for AI data centers.
- All three benefit from semiconductor tailwinds, particularly AI infrastructure, but ASML offers stability, while MTSI and NVTS provide higher growth potential amid recent product launches.
- Recent momentum favors NVTS post-AI announcements, but ASML's scale ($530B+ market cap) contrasts with smaller peers' agility.
- Valuation sensitivity is elevated across the board, with risks from sector cycles and geopolitical factors influencing relative performance.
Introduction
This comparison examines ASML, MTSI, and NVTS, three semiconductor firms pivotal to AI, data centers, and advanced computing. ASML dominates lithography equipment, MTSI excels in analog RF solutions for connectivity, and NVTS innovates in power-efficient GaN/SiC devices. Traders eyeing short-term momentum from recent AI-related developments and investors assessing long-term sector exposure will benefit from analyzing their relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning in the evolving chip ecosystem.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V. is the global leader in photolithography systems, holding over 90% market share in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools essential for advanced semiconductors. The company reported €32.7 billion in 2025 net sales, with expectations for €34-39 billion in 2026 amid AI-driven demand. Recent market activity saw shares gain around 29% YTD and over 88% in the past year, reflecting optimism around High-NA EUV readiness for mass production and expansions into AI chip packaging. Sentiment has been bolstered by technological breakthroughs in EUV light sources and AI-optimized tools, though modest pullbacks in recent weeks highlight valuation concerns at a trailing P/E near 49x and beta of 1.43. Geopolitical tensions and export restrictions have introduced volatility, yet robust backlogs from TSMC and Intel sustain positive positioning.
MTSI Overview and Recent Performance
MTSI, or MACOM Technology Solutions Holdings, Inc., designs analog semiconductors for RF, microwave, and optical applications in telecom, data centers, and defense. Fiscal 2025 revenue reached $967 million, up 33% year-over-year, with Q1 2026 guidance at $265-273 million. Shares have advanced about 31% YTD and over 106% in the past year, trading near $225 with a $17 billion market cap. Recent weeks featured launches like PCIe 7.0 linear equalizers and cable drivers for high-speed data centers, alongside OFC 2026 showcases, enhancing sentiment around 5G, AI interconnects, and SATCOM. Performance reflects strong gross margins near 57% and analyst targets around $242, though short-term dips underscore cyclical risks in a beta environment above market norms.
NVTS Overview and Recent Performance
NVTS, Navitas Semiconductor Corporation, specializes in gallium nitride (GaN) and silicon carbide (SiC) power semiconductors for efficient conversion in AI data centers, EVs, and renewables. 2025 revenue was $46 million amid a strategic pivot to high-power markets. Shares have surged roughly 41% YTD and over 278% in the past year, recently around $10.50 with a $2.4 billion market cap, driven by volatility. Recent developments include 1200V SiC packages for AI data centers, solid-state transformers enabling 800V DC, and partnerships like GlobalFoundries for U.S. GaN production. These catalysts spurred sharp gains, boosting sentiment on energy efficiency plays, though ongoing losses and high beta amplify risks in recent market swings.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML, MTSI, and NVTS share semiconductor exposure but diverge in business models: ASML's equipment monopoly contrasts MTSI's analog components for interconnects and NVTS's power devices. Growth drivers center on AI data centers—ASML via EUV/packaging, MTSI through PCIe/5G optics, NVTS with GaN/SiC efficiency. Recent momentum peaks for NVTS (surges post-launches), followed by MTSI, with ASML steadier. Risks include ASML's geopolitics, MTSI's cycle dependence, and NVTS's losses. Sector ties to semis yield high betas (1.43 for ASML), with valuations stretched: ASML P/E ~49x, peers higher on growth. Sentiment favors AI catalysts, trading stability for upside in smaller names.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ASML due to its trend consistency, massive scale, and unmatched EUV backlog positioning it as a core AI enabler. While MTSI and NVTS show stronger short-term momentum from product innovations, ASML's stability and catalysts like High-NA EUV suggest higher probability of sustained outperformance amid sector volatility.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileMTSI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and NVTS’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MTSI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- NVTS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTSI’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and NVTS’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MTSI’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- NVTS’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -1.25% price change this week, while MTSI (@Semiconductors) price change was +7.31% , and NVTS (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +29.14% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +10.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +23.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +116.53%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +11.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +20.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
MTSI is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
NVTS is expected to report earnings on May 07, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+10.31% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (+11.63% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ASML | MTSI | NVTS | |
| Capitalization | 565B | 20.8B | 2.84B |
| EBITDA | 12.6B | 259M | -67.33M |
| Gain YTD | 36.810 | 61.706 | 72.549 |
| P/E Ratio | 47.81 | 125.33 | N/A |
| Revenue | 32.7B | 1.02B | 45.9M |
| Total Cash | 13.3B | 768M | 237M |
| Total Debt | 4.39B | 531M | 6.47M |
ASML | MTSI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 42 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 36 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 44 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ASML's Valuation (75) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as MTSI (83) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (27) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MTSI (59) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew somewhat faster than MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
MTSI's Price Growth Rating (36) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (39) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that MTSI’s stock grew similarly to ASML’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as MTSI (44) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML’s stock grew similarly to MTSI’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | MTSI | NVTS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 80% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 76% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 78% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 67% | 21 days ago 70% | 21 days ago 86% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 82% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 78% |
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ASML and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASML has been closely correlated with ASMLF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASML jumps, then ASMLF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASML | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 100% | +3.47% | ||
| ASMLF - ASML | 85% Closely correlated | +2.42% | ||
| ASMIY - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | +2.09% | ||
| LRCX - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| KLAC - ASML | 79% Closely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| AMAT - ASML | 77% Closely correlated | +1.81% | ||
More | ||||
NVTS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NVTS has been loosely correlated with IFNNY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 45% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NVTS jumps, then IFNNY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NVTS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVTS | 100% | -0.40% | ||
| IFNNY - NVTS | 45% Loosely correlated | +5.79% | ||
| TOELY - NVTS | 44% Loosely correlated | +0.15% | ||
| PENG - NVTS | 43% Loosely correlated | +2.49% | ||
| AAOI - NVTS | 42% Loosely correlated | +1.33% | ||
| COHU - NVTS | 41% Loosely correlated | +4.80% | ||
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