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ASML or ON or TEL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. ON Semiconductor (ON) vs. TE Connectivity (TEL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML leads in AI chip lithography innovation but faces valuation scrutiny and recent dips amid geopolitical tensions.
- ON Semiconductor shows steady momentum with positive earnings revisions and Q4 strength in power solutions.
- TEL encounters supply disruptions but benefits from robust order growth and AI-related demand in connectivity.
- All three stocks operate in the semiconductor ecosystem, with ASML at the high-end equipment level, ON in components, and TEL in interconnects.
- Recent market activity highlights volatility, with ASML down ~5% in a session, while ON gains ~6.7% over the past month.
- Tickeron's AI bots, including those trading ASML, signal strength in semiconductor strategies amid sector rotations.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines ASML, ON, and TEL—key players in the semiconductor supply chain. ASML provides advanced lithography equipment, ON specializes in power and sensing semiconductors, and TEL delivers connectivity solutions. Investors tracking technology hardware, AI infrastructure, and industrial automation will find value in their relative performance amid evolving market conditions like supply chain pressures and demand for AI-enabling components. This analysis highlights recent trends, sentiment, and positioning for informed relative performance evaluation.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V. is the leading provider of lithography systems essential for advanced semiconductor manufacturing, particularly extreme ultraviolet (EUV) tools critical for AI chips. In recent market activity, ASML shares experienced volatility, declining about 5.5% in a recent session amid concerns over 2026 demand uncertainty and U.S. export restrictions impacting shipments to key markets. Despite this, the stock has risen over 76% in the past year and 20% YTD, driven by expansions into AI chip capabilities and strong mutual fund interest totaling $21.57 billion. Revenue grew 31% in FY 2025 to €32.7 billion, with gross margins at 52.8%. Sentiment reflects high valuation premiums—trading at a 62% premium to fair value—but sustained by EUV advancements and analyst EPS upgrades of 20%+ for upcoming quarters.
ON Overview and Recent Performance
ON Semiconductor Corporation (onsemi) designs and manufactures power management, sensing, and analog solutions for automotive, industrial, and cloud applications. Recent weeks have seen ON shares gain approximately 6.7% over the past month, outperforming the S&P 500, fueled by positive Q4 revenue of $1.53 billion and upward earnings revisions. The stock reflects investor attention amid sector momentum, with analysts noting strength in intelligent power solutions. Longer-term, ON has shown resilience with mixed but improving short-term returns, supported by demand in electric vehicles and industrial automation. Earnings estimates for the current quarter indicate 23.8% year-over-year growth, with consensus targets pointing to sustained performance despite broader semiconductor challenges.
TEL Overview and Recent Performance
TE Connectivity plc manufactures connectivity and sensor solutions for transportation, industrial, and communications markets, enabling power, signal, and data flow in AI and automation systems. TEL has faced recent pressure, with shares dropping 15% over a week due to Middle East supply disruptions, yet up 41% over the past year. Positive factors include record orders exceeding $5 billion, a new $3 billion credit facility, and AI revenue surges, with Q1 revenue at $4.7 billion (22% growth) and EPS of $2.72 beating estimates. Book-to-bill ratio at 1.1 signals robust demand, though geopolitical risks weigh on sentiment. Analysts project continued earnings growth in industrial and data center segments.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML, ON, and TEL span the semiconductor chain: ASML's equipment drives cutting-edge chip production, ON's components power end applications, and TEL's connectors link systems. Growth drivers differ—ASML tied to EUV/AI capex, ON to EV/industrial sensing, TEL to infrastructure orders—exposing ASML to highest cyclicality and geopolitics, ON to auto cycles, and TEL to supply logistics. Recent momentum favors ON's monthly gains over ASML's dips and TEL's pullbacks, though all show YTD strength (ASML +20%, ON steady, TEL mixed). Risk factors include ASML's premium valuation (P/E ~37x), ON's margin pressures, and TEL's disruptions. Sector exposure aligns on semis/tech, but TEL diversifies into industrials. Market sentiment tilts toward ASML's innovation premium versus ON/TEL's value stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors ON for its consistent trend momentum, positive earnings trajectory, and relative stability amid sector volatility. Observable factors like 6.7% monthly gains, Q4 strength, and lower geopolitical exposure position ON ahead probabilistically, though ASML's AI catalysts and TEL's order backlog warrant monitoring for shifts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileON’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TEL’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- ON’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TEL’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ON’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and TEL’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- ON’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TEL’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -1.25% price change this week, while ON (@Semiconductors) price change was +20.92% , and TEL (@Electronic Components) price fluctuated +7.12% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +10.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +23.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +116.53%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +11.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +20.79%, and the average quarterly price growth was +24.53%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Components industry was +4.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
ON is expected to report earnings on May 04, 2026.
TEL is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+10.31% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (+11.63% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
@Electronic Components (+4.81% weekly)The Electronic Components industry produces electronic equipment for industries and consumer electronics products, such as mobile devices, televisions, and circuit boards. TE Connectivity Ltd, for example, is a company that designs and manufactures connectivity and sensor products for harsh environments in various industries, such as automotive, industrial equipment, aerospace, and oil & gas. Another major player, Corning Inc., makes advanced optics including end-to-end fiber and wireless solutions for communications networks along with various other technologies catering to industrial and scientific applications.
| ASML | ON | TEL | |
| Capitalization | 556B | 32.7B | 72.2B |
| EBITDA | 12.6B | 888M | 4.47B |
| Gain YTD | 36.810 | 53.296 | 8.520 |
| P/E Ratio | 47.81 | 286.24 | 35.47 |
| Revenue | 32.7B | 6B | 18.1B |
| Total Cash | 13.3B | 2.55B | 1.25B |
| Total Debt | 4.39B | 3.01B | 5.71B |
ASML | ON | TEL | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 14 | 28 | 26 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 89 Overvalued | 23 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 67 | 18 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 88 | 51 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 3 | 42 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 1 | 16 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TEL's Valuation (23) in the Electronic Components industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ASML (75) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for ON (89) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that TEL's stock grew somewhat faster than ASML’s and significantly faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
TEL's Profit vs Risk Rating (18) in the Electronic Components industry is in the same range as ASML (27) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for ON (67) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that TEL's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and somewhat faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TEL (51) in the Electronic Components industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for ON (88) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to TEL’s and significantly faster than ON’s over the last 12 months.
ON's Price Growth Rating (3) in the Semiconductors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ASML (40) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for TEL (42) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that ON's stock grew somewhat faster than ASML’s and somewhat faster than TEL’s over the last 12 months.
ON's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (14) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is in the same range as TEL (16) in the Electronic Components industry. This means that ON's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and similarly to TEL’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | ON | TEL | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 78% | 2 days ago 42% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 79% | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 73% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 20 days ago 77% | 20 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 50% |
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ASML and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASML has been closely correlated with ASMLF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 85% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ASML jumps, then ASMLF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASML | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 100% | +3.47% | ||
| ASMLF - ASML | 85% Closely correlated | +2.42% | ||
| ASMIY - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | +2.09% | ||
| LRCX - ASML | 80% Closely correlated | +2.54% | ||
| KLAC - ASML | 79% Closely correlated | +3.26% | ||
| AMAT - ASML | 77% Closely correlated | +1.81% | ||
More | ||||
TEL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TEL has been closely correlated with APH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 66% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TEL jumps, then APH could also see price increases.