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ASML or TSM or TXN
Which Stock Would AI Choose? ASML Holding (ASML) vs. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) vs. Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ASML leads with strong YTD gains around 31%, fueled by massive EUV orders like $7.9B from SK Hynix, though recent volatility shows monthly dips amid sector pressures.
- TSM demonstrates resilience with 14% YTD rise and capacity constraints signaling robust AI demand, despite recent 4-5% monthly pullbacks.
- TXN trails YTD at about 13%, facing industrial slowdowns but rebounding lately on new power modules for data centers and EVs.
- All three benefit from AI tailwinds, but ASML and TSM show superior momentum over TXN in recent market activity.
- Semiconductor sector exposure heightens risks from geopolitics and cycles, with TSM facing Taiwan tensions and ASML export curbs.
- Relative performance highlights ASML's premium positioning in advanced lithography versus TXN's stable analog focus.
Introduction
ASML Holding (ASML), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM), and Texas Instruments (TXN) represent pivotal players in the semiconductor ecosystem, spanning lithography equipment, advanced foundry services, and analog chips. This stock comparison analyzes their business models, recent performance, and market positioning amid AI-driven demand and sector volatility. Traders seeking high-growth exposure to chip infrastructure and investors eyeing diversified semiconductor plays will find insights into relative strengths, risks, and momentum shifts in the current environment.
ASML Overview and Recent Performance
ASML Holding N.V., based in the Netherlands, holds a monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography systems critical for advanced chip production. Serving foundries like TSM, it enables nanoscale semiconductor manufacturing for AI and high-performance computing. In recent market activity, ASML shares have surged over 30% YTD, reflecting a robust order backlog exceeding €39 billion and 2026 sales guidance of €34-39 billion. A landmark $7.9 billion EUV order from SK Hynix through 2027 has bolstered sentiment, countering monthly dips of around 7% from broader sector consolidation and U.S.-China export restrictions. Recent weekly gains amid AI hype underscore resilience, though valuation concerns linger after a near-90% one-year rally.
TSM Overview and Recent Performance
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), the world's largest dedicated chip foundry, produces advanced nodes for clients including Nvidia and Apple, commanding over 50% market share. Its focus on high-performance computing and AI chips drives expansion. TSM shares have advanced about 14% YTD, with recent weeks showing resilience despite 4-5% monthly declines tied to geopolitical tensions. Broadcom's comments on capacity limits highlight surging AI demand, with new fabs fully booked pre-construction. Quarterly revenue beats and 20-33% growth projections through 2026 support positive sentiment, though Taiwan risks temper gains in volatile trading.
TXN Overview and Recent Performance
Texas Instruments Incorporated, a Dallas-based leader in analog and embedded semiconductors, supplies chips for industrial, automotive, and consumer applications. Its broad portfolio emphasizes reliability and efficiency. TXN has posted modest 13% YTD gains, underperforming peers amid 10-12% monthly setbacks from sluggish industrial recovery. Recent rebounds stem from high-performance isolated power modules for data centers and EVs, plus partnerships like Nvidia. Q4 revenue grew 10% YoY, with CapEx cuts targeting stronger free cash flow, yet slower AI exposure limits upside compared to ASML and TSM in recent activity.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
ASML’s EUV monopoly drives explosive growth but exposes it to export volatility, contrasting TSM’s scaled foundry model with steadier 20-30% revenue expansion via AI nodes. TXN prioritizes analog stability over cutting-edge scaling, yielding lower beta but muted catalysts. Recent momentum favors ASML (31% YTD) and TSM (14%) over TXN (13%), with all facing cyclical risks amplified by geopolitics—TSM via Taiwan, ASML via curbs. Valuation sensitivity is highest for ASML at 36x forward P/E versus TSM’s 23-25x and TXN’s stability, while sentiment tilts toward AI pure-plays amid capacity crunches.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors TSM for its balanced trend consistency, lower relative valuation, and capacity-constrained AI catalysts positioning it ahead in relative performance. While ASML offers superior upside potential from order backlogs, its volatility suits aggressive traders; TXN provides stability but lags momentum. Probabilistic edge leans to TSM amid observable supply-demand dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASML’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileTSM’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and TXN’s FA Score reflects 4 green FA rating(s).
- ASML’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TSM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TXN’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASML’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TSM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and TXN’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASML’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- TSM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TXN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
ASML (@Electronic Production Equipment) experienced а -1.58% price change this week, while TSM (@Semiconductors) price change was -0.03% , and TXN (@Semiconductors) price fluctuated +7.84% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronic Production Equipment industry was +9.07%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +30.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was +121.55%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Semiconductors industry was +10.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +24.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was +26.97%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASML is expected to report earnings on Jul 15, 2026.
TSM is expected to report earnings on Jul 16, 2026.
TXN is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronic Production Equipment (+9.07% weekly)The electronic production equipment industry makes equipment used to produce semiconductors. Such equipment includes wafer fabrication, plasma etching and photo-resist processing equipment. The industry also makes chemical vapor deposition processing systems and photomasks, which are high-purity quartz plates that contain patterns to define integrated circuits layouts. Applied Materials, Inc., Lam Research Corporation, and KLA-Tencor Corporation are examples of electronic production equipment manufacturing companies.
@Semiconductors (+10.10% weekly)The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.
| ASML | TSM | TXN | |
| Capitalization | 564B | 1.67T | 213B |
| EBITDA | 12.6B | 2.74T | 8.25B |
| Gain YTD | 38.376 | 21.192 | 35.584 |
| P/E Ratio | 48.51 | 31.34 | 42.88 |
| Revenue | 32.7B | 3.81T | 17.7B |
| Total Cash | 13.3B | N/A | 4.88B |
| Total Debt | 4.39B | N/A | 14B |
ASML | TSM | TXN | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 75 Overvalued | 46 Fair valued | 14 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 9 | 45 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 26 | 32 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 39 | 39 | 8 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 14 | 20 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TXN's Valuation (14) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as TSM (46) in the Semiconductors industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for ASML (75) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry. This means that TXN's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and somewhat faster than ASML’s over the last 12 months.
TSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (27) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for TXN (45) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that TSM's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and somewhat faster than TXN’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's SMR Rating (19) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (26) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as TXN (32) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and similarly to TXN’s over the last 12 months.
TXN's Price Growth Rating (8) in the Semiconductors industry is in the same range as ASML (39) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry, and is in the same range as TSM (39) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that TXN's stock grew similarly to ASML’s and similarly to TSM’s over the last 12 months.
ASML's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Electronic Production Equipment industry is in the same range as TSM (20) in the Semiconductors industry, and is in the same range as TXN (24) in the Semiconductors industry. This means that ASML's stock grew similarly to TSM’s and similarly to TXN’s over the last 12 months.
| ASML | TSM | TXN | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 77% | 4 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 57% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 72% | 13 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 67% | 5 days ago 62% | 22 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 76% | 4 days ago 58% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 67% | 4 days ago 45% |
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TSM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TSM has been closely correlated with ASML. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TSM jumps, then ASML could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TSM | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 100% | -1.15% | ||
| ASML - TSM | 74% Closely correlated | +1.14% | ||
| LRCX - TSM | 73% Closely correlated | -1.66% | ||
| KLAC - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +0.77% | ||
| MPWR - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +1.53% | ||
| NVDA - TSM | 71% Closely correlated | +0.19% | ||
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