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AU or HMY or KGC
AngloGold Ashanti (AU) vs Harmony Gold (HMY) vs Kinross Gold (KGC) Earnings Recap: Post-Release Financial Momentum
Key Takeaways
- Harmony Gold (HMY) released H1 FY2026 results on March 11, 2026, reporting revenue up 20% to ZAR 44.4 billion ($2.56 billion), operating profit up 61% to ZAR 16 billion, and basic EPS of ZAR 15.63 ($0.90), despite 9% lower gold production of 724,000 ounces.
- AngloGold Ashanti (AU) Q4 & FY 2025 earnings on February 20, 2026, showed record free cash flow of $2.9 billion, gold production up 16% to 3.1 million ounces, and adjusted EBITDA up 129% to $6.3 billion.
- Kinross Gold (KGC) Q4 & FY 2025 results on February 18, 2026, delivered record attributable free cash flow of $2.47 billion, 2.0 million gold equivalent ounces produced, and adjusted EPS of $1.84 for the year.
- All three benefited from elevated gold prices, with strong cash generation enabling dividends and buybacks; HMY doubled its interim dividend to ZAR 5.30/share.
Earnings Context and Competitive Landscape
Gold miners like AngloGold Ashanti (AU), Harmony Gold (HMY), and Kinross Gold (KGC) operate in overlapping markets, focusing on production from Africa, Australia, and the Americas. Earnings releases provide critical insights into cost control, production efficiency, and leverage to gold prices above $3,000/oz. Recent reports highlight robust free cash flow amid high prices, supporting dividends and growth projects, while competitive edges emerge in reserve quality and jurisdictional diversity.
Harmony Gold Focus
Harmony Gold (HMY) reported interim results for the six months ended December 31, 2025 (H1 FY2026, fiscal year ending June 30) on March 11, 2026. Revenue rose 20% to ZAR 44.4 billion ($2.56 billion) on a 36% higher realized gold price of $3,421/oz. Gold production fell 9% to 724,000 ounces due to cyanide shortages and lower recoveries, pushing AISC to $2,115/oz. EBITDA climbed 39% to ZAR 18 billion, operating profit 61% to ZAR 16 billion, and net profit 24% to ZAR 9.75 billion (basic EPS ZAR 15.42 or ~$0.89). The company doubled its interim dividend to ZAR 3.4 billion (ZAR 5.30/share), revised policy for up to 50% of net free cash flow, and reaffirmed FY2026 gold output of 1.4-1.5 million ounces.
AngloGold Ashanti Context
AngloGold Ashanti (AU) posted Q4 & full-year 2025 results on February 20, 2026, for the calendar year ended December 31, 2025. Group gold production increased 16% to 3.1 million ounces, driven by full-year Sukari contributions and Obuasi ramp-up. Realized gold price surged 45% to $3,468/oz, fueling record adjusted EBITDA of $6.3 billion (+129%) and free cash flow of $2.9 billion (+204%). Q4 revenue hit $3.07 billion, with basic EPS of 168 US cents. Total 2025 dividends reached $1.8 billion, including a Q4 interim of $875 million (173 US cents/share). AISC held flat in real terms; outlook targets 2.8-3.17 million ounces in 2026.
Kinross Gold Context
Kinross Gold (KGC) released Q4 & FY 2025 results on February 18, 2026, meeting 2.0 million attributable gold equivalent ounce production guidance. Q4 revenue was $2.02 billion, adjusted operating cash flow $1.15 billion, and attributable free cash flow a record $769 million. Full-year free cash flow hit $2.47 billion (+85%), with adjusted net earnings $1.84/share. Q4 adjusted EPS $0.67 beat estimates; AISC $1,571/oz. Returned $752 million to shareholders, increased dividend 14% to $0.16 annualized, targeting 40% of 2026 free cash flow for capital returns. 2026 production guidance steady at 2.0 million ounces (+/-5%).
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
Harmony Gold (HMY) showcased earnings growth (basic EPS +24%) despite production dips, with superior leverage to gold prices via South African operations, but higher AISC signals risks. AngloGold Ashanti (AU) leads in scale and cash flow ($2.9B FCF), with diversified assets yielding top EBITDA margins and reserve growth. Kinross Gold (KGC) excels in consistent execution, low AISC, and shareholder returns, bolstered by net cash position. Investor sentiment favors AU's transformation and KGC's stability over HMY's volatility; all exhibit strong growth signals amid gold strength, though execution risks persist in Africa-heavy portfolios.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI currently favors AngloGold Ashanti (AU) with 65% probability due to record $2.9 billion free cash flow, 16% production growth, and diversified high-margin assets positioning it for sustained outperformance in a high gold price environment, ahead of KGC's consistency and HMY's operational volatility.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AU’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileHMY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and KGC’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- AU’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- HMY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- KGC’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AU’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HMY’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and KGC’s TA Score reflects 8 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AU’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HMY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- KGC’s TA Score: 8 bullish, 2 bearish.
Price Growth
AU (@Precious Metals) experienced а -2.41% price change this week, while HMY (@Precious Metals) price change was +10.82% , and KGC (@Precious Metals) price fluctuated +3.34% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was +0.63%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +17.25%, and the average quarterly price growth was +95.37%.
Reported Earning Dates
AU is expected to report earnings on May 08, 2026.
HMY is expected to report earnings on Apr 24, 2026.
KGC is expected to report earnings on Apr 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (+0.63% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
| AU | HMY | KGC | |
| Capitalization | 53.8B | 12B | 41.2B |
| EBITDA | 3.73B | 20B | 4.38B |
| Gain YTD | 26.969 | -7.839 | 23.375 |
| P/E Ratio | 20.56 | 11.58 | 17.79 |
| Revenue | 8.58B | 67.1B | 7.05B |
| Total Cash | 1.43B | N/A | 887M |
| Total Debt | 2.32B | N/A | 738M |
AU | HMY | KGC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 21 | 16 | 18 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 6 Undervalued | 16 Undervalued | 20 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 26 | 44 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 24 | 35 | 31 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 49 | 38 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 54 | 93 | 72 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AU's Valuation (6) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as HMY (16) and is in the same range as KGC (20). This means that AU's stock grew similarly to HMY’s and similarly to KGC’s over the last 12 months.
KGC's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as AU (26) and is in the same range as HMY (44). This means that KGC's stock grew similarly to AU’s and similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
AU's SMR Rating (24) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as KGC (31) and is in the same range as HMY (35). This means that AU's stock grew similarly to KGC’s and similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
AU's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as KGC (38) and is in the same range as HMY (49). This means that AU's stock grew similarly to KGC’s and similarly to HMY’s over the last 12 months.
AU's P/E Growth Rating (54) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as KGC (72) and is somewhat better than the same rating for HMY (93). This means that AU's stock grew similarly to KGC’s and somewhat faster than HMY’s over the last 12 months.
| AU | HMY | KGC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 82% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 83% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 80% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 83% | 5 days ago 81% | 5 days ago 80% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 73% | 9 days ago 79% | 16 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 79% |
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