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AVAV or BWXT or RTX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AeroVironment (AVAV) vs. BWX Technologies (BWXT) vs. RTX Corporation (RTX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BWXT leads with over 100% one-year returns and a robust $7.3 billion backlog, driven by nuclear propulsion contracts and commercial growth.
- AVAV shows strong long-term gains but recent volatility, with Q3 revenue of $408 million and a record $1.1 billion funded backlog amid drone demand.
- RTX offers scale with a $268 billion backlog and steady 12% sales growth, balancing defense and commercial aerospace.
- BWXT YTD up ~28%, RTX ~6-7%, AVAV down ~18%, highlighting BWXT's relative momentum in recent market activity.
- All benefit from rising defense spending, but BWXT's niche nuclear focus provides unique catalysts versus AVAV's autonomy and RTX's breadth.
- Valuations: BWXT P/E ~44-55x, RTX ~39x, AVAV at loss due to impairments; BWXT and RTX pay dividends.
Introduction
This comparison examines AVAV, BWXT, and RTX, key players in the defense and aerospace sector amid global military spending reaching $2.7 trillion. These stocks appeal to investors seeking exposure to unmanned systems, nuclear technologies, and integrated defense solutions. Traders focused on relative performance, backlog growth, and sector tailwinds—from naval propulsion to counter-UAS—will find value in analyzing their business models, recent momentum, and market positioning in today's geopolitical environment.
AVAV Overview and Recent Performance
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) designs and manufactures unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), loitering munitions like Switchblade, and counter-UAS technologies for defense applications. In recent quarters, the company reported Q3 fiscal 2026 revenue of $408 million, up significantly year-over-year, with bookings of $2.1 billion and a record funded backlog of $1.1 billion. Despite a $151 million goodwill impairment leading to a net loss, management reaffirmed full-year guidance of $1.85-$1.95 billion in revenue. Stock behavior reflects volatility, with shares down over 30% from peaks after earnings but up 50-60% annually, influenced by product launches like LOCUST X3 directed-energy system and acquisitions expanding tactical UAS capabilities. Sentiment ties to agile defense procurement shifts favoring smaller innovators amid supply chain challenges.
BWXT Overview and Recent Performance
BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) supplies nuclear components, reactors, and fuel primarily for U.S. naval propulsion, alongside commercial nuclear services and microreactors. Recent market activity saw shares surge over 100% in the past year, with YTD gains around 28%, driven by Q4 2025 results: revenue up 18% to $885.8 million, adjusted EPS of $1.08 beating estimates, and full-year adjusted EBITDA of $574 million. Backlog expanded 50% to $7.3 billion from multi-year naval and commercial awards, including uranium enrichment contracts. Guidance for 2026 projects 17% revenue growth and non-GAAP EPS of $4.55-$4.70. Performance reflects strong order flow and nuclear demand from AI data centers and security needs, though shares show periodic pullbacks amid broader volatility.
RTX Overview and Recent Performance
RTX Corporation (RTX) delivers aerospace and defense systems through Collins Aerospace, Pratt & Whitney, and Raytheon segments, spanning missiles, radars, engines, and avionics. In recent quarters, Q4 2025 sales rose 12% to $24.2 billion, beating estimates, with adjusted EPS of $1.55 and a record $268 billion backlog up 23%. Full-year revenue hit $88.6 billion, with free cash flow of $7.9 billion. Shares gained around 44-60% over the past year and 6-7% YTD, supported by expansions like the $115 million Alabama missile facility and contracts for radars and reconnaissance. Sentiment benefits from balanced commercial recovery and defense demand, though sensitive to aviation supply chains; 2026 outlook targets 5-6% organic growth.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AVAV, BWXT, and RTX operate in defense but differ in focus: AVAV emphasizes autonomous drones and counter-UAS for tactical edge; BWXT specializes in nuclear propulsion with commercial upside; RTX provides broad missiles, avionics, and engines for scale. Growth drivers include AVAV's $1.1 billion backlog from loitering munitions, BWXT's 50% backlog surge to $7.3 billion via naval fuel, and RTX's massive $268 billion orders. Recent momentum favors BWXT's 100%+ annual gains over RTX's 44-60% and AVAV's volatile 50-60%, though AVAV leads long-term returns. Risks: AVAV faces contract volatility and impairments; BWXT nuclear policy shifts; RTX supply chains. Sector exposure tilts BWXT toward energy-security hybrids, AVAV pure autonomy, RTX diversified. Valuations show BWXT/RTX at 39-55x P/E with dividends (BWXT 0.5%, RTX 1.4%), AVAV at loss; sentiment positive on spending hikes but BWXT's niche offers trade-offs in growth vs. stability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors BWXT due to consistent trend strength from earnings beats, expanding backlog, and nuclear catalysts positioning it ahead in recent momentum and YTD performance. While AVAV shows innovation-driven upside and RTX unmatched scale/stability, BWXT's relative outperformance suggests higher near-term probability amid defense-nuclear tailwinds.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileBWXT’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and RTX’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- AVAV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- BWXT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- RTX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BWXT’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and RTX’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- BWXT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- RTX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAV (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +1.46% price change this week, while BWXT (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -1.97% , and RTX (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated -2.79% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +1.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was +29.41%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAV is expected to report earnings on Jun 30, 2026.
BWXT is expected to report earnings on May 04, 2026.
RTX is expected to report earnings on Apr 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+1.71% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| AVAV | BWXT | RTX | |
| Capitalization | 9.98B | 20.9B | 264B |
| EBITDA | 104M | 552M | 14.9B |
| Gain YTD | -18.463 | 32.235 | 7.110 |
| P/E Ratio | 149.03 | 63.75 | 39.47 |
| Revenue | 1.61B | 3.2B | 88.6B |
| Total Cash | 587M | N/A | 7.44B |
| Total Debt | 826M | 2.02B | 39.5B |
AVAV | BWXT | RTX | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 16 | 61 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 95 Overvalued | 34 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 8 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 33 | 67 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 40 | 48 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 14 | 52 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
RTX's Valuation (34) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AVAV (83) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for BWXT (95) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that RTX's stock grew somewhat faster than AVAV’s and somewhat faster than BWXT’s over the last 12 months.
RTX's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the null industry is in the same range as BWXT (8) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (76) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that RTX's stock grew similarly to BWXT’s and significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's SMR Rating (33) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for RTX (67) in the null industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for AVAV (92) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that BWXT's stock grew somewhat faster than RTX’s and somewhat faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as RTX (48) in the null industry, and is in the same range as AVAV (65) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that BWXT's stock grew similarly to RTX’s and similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AVAV (17) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for RTX (52) in the null industry. This means that BWXT's stock grew similarly to AVAV’s and somewhat faster than RTX’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAV | BWXT | RTX | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 45% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 45% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 44% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 79% | 7 days ago 69% | 16 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 72% | 12 days ago 55% | 6 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 32% |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| FSGS | 31.34 | 0.07 | +0.23% |
| First Trust SMID Growth Strength ETF | |||
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AVAV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVAV has been loosely correlated with KTOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AVAV jumps, then KTOS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AVAV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 100% | +3.04% | ||
| KTOS - AVAV | 59% Loosely correlated | -1.63% | ||
| KRMN - AVAV | 45% Loosely correlated | -1.06% | ||
| MRCY - AVAV | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.08% | ||
| DRS - AVAV | 44% Loosely correlated | -0.74% | ||
| GD - AVAV | 42% Loosely correlated | -1.23% | ||
More | ||||
BWXT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BWXT has been closely correlated with CW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BWXT jumps, then CW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BWXT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWXT | 100% | -3.20% | ||
| CW - BWXT | 79% Closely correlated | -0.77% | ||
| MRCY - BWXT | 52% Loosely correlated | +0.08% | ||
| KTOS - BWXT | 50% Loosely correlated | -1.63% | ||
| HWM - BWXT | 49% Loosely correlated | -0.03% | ||
| AIR - BWXT | 49% Loosely correlated | -0.87% | ||
More | ||||