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AVAV or BWXT or TDG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AeroVironment (AVAV) vs. BWX Technologies (BWXT) vs. TransDigm Group (TDG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AVAV shows volatile recent performance with gains from U.S. Army contracts and manufacturing expansions, but faces earnings uncertainty ahead of Q3 results.
- BWXT demonstrates steady growth, reporting strong Q4 results with 18% revenue increase and issuing upbeat FY2026 guidance for EPS growth.
- TDG delivered solid Q1 results with 14% sales growth and raised FY2026 outlook, supported by aftermarket demand and acquisitions.
- All three benefit from aerospace and defense sector tailwinds, including geopolitical tensions boosting demand for unmanned systems, nuclear components, and aircraft parts.
- BWXT exhibits the most consistent momentum and stability relative to peers in recent market activity.
- Valuations reflect growth prospects, with TDG trading at premium multiples due to high margins, while AVAV appears more volatile.
Introduction
This comparison examines AVAV, BWXT, and TDG, key players in the aerospace and defense sector amid rising geopolitical tensions and sustained military spending. These stocks offer exposure to unmanned systems, nuclear technologies, and aircraft components, respectively. Traders seeking momentum in defense subsectors and investors eyeing long-term growth in national security-related industrials will find value in analyzing their relative performance, business models, and market positioning in the current environment.
AVAV Overview and Recent Performance
AeroVironment (AVAV) designs and manufactures unmanned aircraft systems, loitering munitions like Switchblade, and counter-UAS technologies for defense applications. In recent weeks, the stock has shown volatility, rebounding with gains around 4% amid a $97 million U.S. Army contract for sensor testing and a $30 million manufacturing expansion in New Mexico to boost production capacity. Sentiment has been influenced by ongoing negotiations for U.S. Space Force contracts and anticipation for Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings on March 10, following prior quarters with revenue surges from acquisitions like BlueHalo but EPS misses due to integration costs. Year-to-date performance lags slightly, reflecting profit-taking after strong one-year gains driven by drone demand.
BWXT Overview and Recent Performance
BWX Technologies (BWXT) specializes in nuclear components, fuels, and services for government operations, including naval reactors, alongside commercial nuclear support. Recent market activity has been stable, with shares trading around $195 after Q4 2025 results showed 18.7% revenue growth to $886 million and EPS of $1.08 beating estimates. The company initiated FY2026 guidance for $4.55-$4.70 non-GAAP EPS and $3.75-$3.8 billion revenue, supported by a $7.3 billion backlog up 50% year-over-year. Positive developments include board appointments and progress on uranium enrichment facilities, enhancing sentiment amid nuclear energy and defense priorities.
TDG Overview and Recent Performance
TransDigm Group (TDG) designs and supplies highly engineered aircraft components, focusing on high-margin aftermarket parts for commercial and military platforms. In recent weeks, shares have held steady near $1,295, buoyed by Q1 fiscal 2026 results with 13.9% net sales growth to $2.285 billion and adjusted EPS of $8.23 exceeding expectations. The company raised FY2026 guidance, citing strong OEM build rates and defense demand. Acquisitions like Stellant Systems and Jet Parts Engineering, funded by $2 billion in debt, have driven optimism, though integration risks and supply chain pressures in defense persist.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AVAV, BWXT, and TDG operate in complementary defense niches: drones and autonomy for AVAV, nuclear propulsion for BWXT, and proprietary aircraft parts for TDG. Growth drivers differ—AVAV relies on tactical contracts amid contested environments, BWXT on long-cycle naval and nuclear backlogs, and TDG on aftermarket resilience tied to fleet utilization. Recent momentum favors BWXT's steady gains versus AVAV's volatility and TDG's premium stability. Risk factors include AVAV's earnings execution post-acquisitions, BWXT's government dependency, and TDG's leverage from M&A. Sector exposure spans unmanned, nuclear, and avionics, with valuations sensitive to defense budgets; BWXT offers relative value, while TDG commands high multiples on 47% margins. Sentiment tilts positive across all amid geopolitical catalysts, but trade-offs lie in volatility versus consistency.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors BWXT for its trend consistency, robust backlog growth, and upward FY2026 guidance signaling stable catalysts in nuclear defense. Relative to AVAV's volatility and TDG's elevated valuations, BWXT positions probabilistically stronger for near-term outperformance amid sector tailwinds.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileBWXT’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and TDG’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- AVAV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- BWXT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- TDG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while BWXT’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s), and TDG’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- BWXT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TDG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAV (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +1.46% price change this week, while BWXT (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -1.97% , and TDG (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated +3.37% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +1.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was +29.41%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAV is expected to report earnings on Jun 30, 2026.
BWXT is expected to report earnings on May 04, 2026.
TDG is expected to report earnings on May 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+1.71% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| AVAV | BWXT | TDG | |
| Capitalization | 9.98B | 20.9B | 72B |
| EBITDA | 104M | 552M | 4.63B |
| Gain YTD | -18.463 | 32.235 | -4.153 |
| P/E Ratio | 149.03 | 63.75 | 41.01 |
| Revenue | 1.61B | 3.2B | 9.11B |
| Total Cash | 587M | N/A | 2.53B |
| Total Debt | 826M | 2.02B | 30B |
AVAV | BWXT | TDG | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 16 | 8 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 95 Overvalued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 8 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 33 | 16 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 40 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 14 | 75 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a | 38 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TDG's Valuation (72) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AVAV (83) and is in the same range as BWXT (95). This means that TDG's stock grew similarly to AVAV’s and similarly to BWXT’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as TDG (23) and is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (76). This means that BWXT's stock grew similarly to TDG’s and significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
TDG's SMR Rating (16) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as BWXT (33) and is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (92). This means that TDG's stock grew similarly to BWXT’s and significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as TDG (58) and is in the same range as AVAV (65). This means that BWXT's stock grew similarly to TDG’s and similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's P/E Growth Rating (14) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AVAV (17) and is somewhat better than the same rating for TDG (75). This means that BWXT's stock grew similarly to AVAV’s and somewhat faster than TDG’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAV | BWXT | TDG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 79% | 7 days ago 69% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 72% | 12 days ago 55% | 6 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 60% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| FSGS | 31.34 | 0.07 | +0.23% |
| First Trust SMID Growth Strength ETF | |||
| FTCB | 21.16 | -0.02 | -0.07% |
| First Trust Core Investment Grade ETF | |||
| IBBQ | 30.32 | -0.16 | -0.52% |
| Invesco Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF | |||
| AGOX | 31.48 | -0.81 | -2.51% |
| Adaptive Alpha Opportunities ETF | |||
| QETH | 23.23 | -0.99 | -4.09% |
| Invesco Galaxy Ethereum ETF | |||
AVAV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVAV has been loosely correlated with KTOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AVAV jumps, then KTOS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AVAV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 100% | +3.04% | ||
| KTOS - AVAV | 59% Loosely correlated | -1.63% | ||
| KRMN - AVAV | 45% Loosely correlated | -1.06% | ||
| MRCY - AVAV | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.08% | ||
| DRS - AVAV | 44% Loosely correlated | -0.74% | ||
| GD - AVAV | 42% Loosely correlated | -1.23% | ||
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