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AVAV or FTAI or HII
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AeroVironment (AVAV) vs. FTAI Aviation (FTAI) vs. Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AVAV specializes in unmanned systems and has shown strong one-year gains of 70%, though currently unprofitable with recent volatility ahead of earnings.
- FTAI leads in one-year performance at 143% and YTD at 32%, driven by aviation leasing growth and raised EBITDA guidance, trading at a premium PE of 56.
- HII offers stability with the lowest beta (0.28), solid profitability (PE 28), and record revenues from shipbuilding, up 125% over one year.
- All three benefit from aerospace and defense tailwinds, but FTAI shows superior recent momentum while HII provides balanced valuation and cash flow.
- Market caps range from $11B (AVAV) to $27B (FTAI), with HII at $17B and largest revenue base at $12.5B.
- Relative performance highlights FTAI's explosive growth versus HII's consistent defense exposure.
Introduction
This comparison examines AVAV, FTAI, and HII, three stocks in the aerospace and defense sectors amid rising geopolitical tensions and increased military spending. Investors seeking exposure to unmanned systems, aviation leasing, and shipbuilding may find value in analyzing their relative performance, growth drivers, and risk profiles. Traders focused on momentum could eye recent outperformers, while long-term holders prioritize profitability and valuation stability in this high-growth industry.
AVAV Overview and Recent Performance
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) designs and produces unmanned aircraft systems, loitering munitions, and related technologies for government agencies, operating in autonomous systems and space/cyber segments. Recent market activity has seen volatility, with shares down about 5% YTD but up 70% over the past year, reflecting demand for counter-UAS and precision strike solutions. Sentiment has been influenced by contract wins like a $97 million U.S. Army deal and upcoming Q3 earnings, though concerns over the Space Force SCAR program and negative EPS of -$1.22 TTM have pressured prices. Trading around $230 with a $11.5B market cap, AVAV's price/sales ratio stands at 6.4x amid revenue of $1.37B TTM.
FTAI Overview and Recent Performance
FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) owns, leases, and services commercial jet engines, focusing on CFM56 and V2500 models through aviation leasing and aerospace products segments. The stock has surged 33% YTD and 143% over one year, trading near $260 with a $27B market cap. Recent developments include Q4 2025 results with raised 2026 EBITDA guidance to $1.625B, a dividend hike to $0.40/share, and aircraft acquisitions from Air France, boosting adjusted EBITDA 76% in aerospace. Profitability shines with EPS of $4.61 TTM and 20% margins on $2.51B revenue, though high debt/equity at 1,046% warrants caution.
HII Overview and Recent Performance
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) is the largest U.S. military shipbuilder, designing nuclear-powered carriers, submarines, and amphibious ships across Ingalls, Newport News, and Mission Technologies segments. Shares are up 27% YTD and 125% annually, around $429 with a $17B market cap. Recent performance stems from record 2025 revenues of $12.5B (up 8%), Q4 EPS beat at $4.04, and milestones like keel authentication for USS Philadelphia (LPD 32) and unmanned systems partnerships. Strong free cash flow of $800M and backlog support stability, with PE at 28 on $15.41 EPS TTM.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AVAV, FTAI, and HII span defense tech, commercial aviation, and shipbuilding, with growth from geopolitical demand but varying risks. Business models differ: AVAV's innovative UAS faces execution risks; FTAI's leasing thrives on air travel recovery; HII's long-cycle contracts ensure backlog visibility. Recent momentum favors FTAI (143% 1Y), followed by HII (125%) and AVAV (70%). Risk profiles show HII's low beta (0.28) versus FTAI's high leverage and AVAV's losses. Sector exposure ties to defense budgets for AVAV/HII, aviation cycles for FTAI. Valuations: HII cheapest (PE 28, EV/EBITDA 16), FTAI premium (PE 56), AVAV elevated (negative earnings). Sentiment leans positive on HII's earnings and FTAI's guidance, with AVAV volatile pre-earnings.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors FTAI due to superior trend consistency, explosive relative performance, and catalysts like EBITDA growth and dividends, positioning it strongly amid aviation demand. While HII offers stability and value, and AVAV high-growth potential, FTAI's momentum suggests higher probability of near-term outperformance based on observable factors.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileFTAI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and HII’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- AVAV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- FTAI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- HII’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAV’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FTAI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and HII’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAV’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- FTAI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HII’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAV (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -2.52% price change this week, while FTAI (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) price change was +3.60% , and HII (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated -0.56% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +4.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.47%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was +8.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.35%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAV is expected to report earnings on Jun 30, 2026.
FTAI is expected to report earnings on Apr 29, 2026.
HII is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+4.88% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (+8.81% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
| AVAV | FTAI | HII | |
| Capitalization | 9.1B | 25.8B | 15.5B |
| EBITDA | 83.8M | 1.12B | 1.21B |
| Gain YTD | -25.702 | 27.937 | 16.341 |
| P/E Ratio | 149.03 | 54.66 | 25.63 |
| Revenue | 1.37B | 2.51B | 12.5B |
| Total Cash | 588M | N/A | 774M |
| Total Debt | 826M | 3.45B | 2.92B |
AVAV | FTAI | HII | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 66 | 70 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | 16 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 81 | 16 | 30 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 10 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 40 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 100 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HII's Valuation (16) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (84) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for FTAI (85) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that HII's stock grew significantly faster than AVAV’s and significantly faster than FTAI’s over the last 12 months.
FTAI's Profit vs Risk Rating (16) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as HII (30) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for AVAV (81) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that FTAI's stock grew similarly to HII’s and somewhat faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
FTAI's SMR Rating (10) in the Investment Managers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HII (59) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (90) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that FTAI's stock grew somewhat faster than HII’s and significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
FTAI's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as HII (41) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as AVAV (65) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that FTAI's stock grew similarly to HII’s and similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
HII's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AVAV (16) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for FTAI (100) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that HII's stock grew similarly to AVAV’s and significantly faster than FTAI’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAV | FTAI | HII | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 79% | 11 days ago 88% | 6 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | N/A | 2 days ago 51% |
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HII and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HII has been loosely correlated with LHX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HII jumps, then LHX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HII | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HII | 100% | -2.22% | ||
| LHX - HII | 62% Loosely correlated | -1.22% | ||
| GD - HII | 61% Loosely correlated | -2.09% | ||
| KTOS - HII | 55% Loosely correlated | +2.94% | ||
| CW - HII | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.44% | ||
| KRMN - HII | 51% Loosely correlated | -2.02% | ||
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