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AVAV or FTAI or HWM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AeroVironment (AVAV) vs. FTAI Aviation (FTAI) vs. Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FTAI Aviation (FTAI) leads with robust YTD gains around 26%, driven by aviation leasing and engine aftermarket strength, contrasting AVAV's recent 19% YTD decline amid earnings volatility.
- Howmet Aerospace (HWM) shows steady growth with 15% YTD returns, supported by record revenues and acquisitions, positioning it as the most stable among the trio.
- All three stocks operate in aerospace/defense sectors but diverge: AVAV focuses on drones/counter-UAS, FTAI on commercial aviation assets, and HWM on engineered components.
- Recent momentum favors FTAI and HWM, with AVAV recovering via contracts but pressured by post-earnings drops.
- Valuation sensitivity is highest for AVAV due to defense spending reliance, while HWM benefits from broad aerospace exposure.
- Market sentiment reflects sector tailwinds from defense budgets and commercial aviation recovery, with relative performance highlighting FTAI's outperformance over the past year at 117%.
Introduction
This comparison examines AVAV, FTAI, and HWM, three aerospace and defense stocks navigating heightened geopolitical tensions and commercial aviation recovery. Investors seeking exposure to unmanned systems, aviation leasing, and engineered components may find value in analyzing their relative performance, growth drivers, and risk profiles. Traders focused on momentum and sector rotation will appreciate insights into recent price behavior and sentiment shifts in this volatile market environment.
AVAV Overview and Recent Performance
AeroVironment (AVAV), a leader in unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), loitering munitions, and counter-UAS technologies, serves U.S. defense agencies with robotic solutions across air, land, and sea domains. In recent weeks, the stock has faced pressure, declining around 24% over the past month amid Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings that showed $408 million in revenue but a $156.6 million net loss due to goodwill impairment. Despite YTD losses near 19%, a record $1.1 billion funded backlog, $97.4 million Army contract, and $200 million ESAero acquisition signal strong demand. Sentiment has mixed with analyst upgrades like Raymond James to Market Perform, offsetting post-earnings drops, as defense spending sustains long-term positioning.
FTAI Overview and Recent Performance
FTAI Aviation (FTAI) specializes in owning, leasing, and maintaining commercial jet engines, particularly CFM56 and V2500 models, alongside aerospace products for global airlines. Recent market activity has propelled shares higher, with YTD returns around 26% and 117% over the past year, reflecting aviation aftermarket demand. Q4 2025 results delivered $662 million revenue and raised dividends to $0.40 per share, though EPS missed slightly at $1.08; adjusted EBITDA hit $277 million. A CFO transition and Air France expansion bolster outlook, with momentum from upbeat analyst targets driving relative strength versus peers.
HWM Overview and Recent Performance
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) provides advanced engineered solutions like engine products, fastening systems, and structures for aerospace and transportation. Recent performance remains resilient, with 15% YTD gains amid record FY2025 revenue of $8.3 billion, up 11%, and Q4 at $2.2 billion. A $1.8 billion CAM acquisition and $1.2 billion notes offering support growth, with FY2026 guidance targeting 10% revenue increase. Shares dipped 10% monthly but trade above key averages, fueled by commercial aerospace (15% growth) and defense exposure, enhancing stability.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AVAV, FTAI, and HWM share aerospace ties but contrast in models: AVAV's defense-centric UAS faces contract volatility, while FTAI's commercial leasing benefits from travel rebound and HWM's components span both. Growth drivers differ—AVAV via backlog ($1.1B), FTAI engine MRO, HWM 10% revenue outlook. Recent momentum favors FTAI (117% 1Y) over HWM (81% 1Y) and volatile AVAV (52% 1Y). Risks include AVAV's impairments, FTAI's airline cyclicality, HWM's debt from deals. HWM shows lowest volatility, FTAI highest growth sensitivity, with sentiment tilting toward commercial recovery.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors HWM for its trend consistency, margin expansion to 29%, and balanced catalysts like the CAM acquisition amid stable aerospace demand. Relative to AVAV's earnings volatility and FTAI's commercial exposure, HWM offers superior positioning with lower drawdowns and 10% growth outlook, though all benefit from sector tailwinds.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileFTAI’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and HWM’s FA Score reflects 4 green FA rating(s).
- AVAV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- FTAI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- HWM’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAV’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FTAI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and HWM’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAV’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- FTAI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HWM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAV (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -2.52% price change this week, while FTAI (@Finance/Rental/Leasing) price change was +3.60% , and HWM (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated +8.59% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +4.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.47%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Finance/Rental/Leasing industry was +8.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.35%, and the average quarterly price growth was +14.53%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAV is expected to report earnings on Jun 30, 2026.
FTAI is expected to report earnings on Apr 29, 2026.
HWM is expected to report earnings on May 07, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+4.88% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
@Finance/Rental/Leasing (+8.81% weekly)A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).
| AVAV | FTAI | HWM | |
| Capitalization | 9.1B | 25.8B | 101B |
| EBITDA | 83.8M | 1.12B | 2.27B |
| Gain YTD | -25.702 | 27.937 | 23.312 |
| P/E Ratio | 149.03 | 54.66 | 68.11 |
| Revenue | 1.37B | 2.51B | 8.25B |
| Total Cash | 588M | N/A | 742M |
| Total Debt | 826M | 3.45B | 3.21B |
AVAV | FTAI | HWM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 66 | 74 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | 75 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 81 | 16 | 3 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 10 | 30 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 40 | 12 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 100 | 21 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HWM's Valuation (75) in the null industry is in the same range as AVAV (84) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as FTAI (85) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that HWM's stock grew similarly to AVAV’s and similarly to FTAI’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the null industry is in the same range as FTAI (16) in the Investment Managers industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (81) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM's stock grew similarly to FTAI’s and significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
FTAI's SMR Rating (10) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as HWM (30) in the null industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (90) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that FTAI's stock grew similarly to HWM’s and significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's Price Growth Rating (12) in the null industry is in the same range as FTAI (40) in the Investment Managers industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for AVAV (65) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM's stock grew similarly to FTAI’s and somewhat faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
AVAV's P/E Growth Rating (16) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HWM (21) in the null industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for FTAI (100) in the Investment Managers industry. This means that AVAV's stock grew similarly to HWM’s and significantly faster than FTAI’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAV | FTAI | HWM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 73% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 50% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 89% | 1 day ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 79% | 11 days ago 88% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 72% | 1 day ago 61% | 13 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 41% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | N/A | 1 day ago 51% |
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FTAI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FTAI has been loosely correlated with AL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 47% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FTAI jumps, then AL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FTAI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTAI | 100% | -1.47% | ||
| AL - FTAI | 47% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| BBDC - FTAI | 46% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| AER - FTAI | 40% Loosely correlated | +0.18% | ||
| UPBD - FTAI | 37% Loosely correlated | -0.59% | ||
| COF - FTAI | 36% Loosely correlated | -0.89% | ||
More | ||||
HWM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HWM has been closely correlated with GE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HWM jumps, then GE could also see price increases.