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AVAV or HII or NOC
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AeroVironment (AVAV) vs. Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) vs. Northrop Grumman (NOC) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AVAV shows explosive revenue growth at 67% year-over-year but recent volatility with shares down 5% YTD amid earnings pressures.
- HII leads YTD performance up 27%, driven by record shipbuilding revenues and a raised growth outlook to 6% medium-term.
- NOC delivers stable gains with 33% YTD rise, supported by a $95 billion backlog and strong Q4 sales beat.
- All three benefit from defense sector tailwinds, but HII and NOC exhibit lower volatility than high-growth AVAV.
- Valuations reflect risks: AVAV trades at elevated P/S of 6.4x, while NOC and HII offer more reasonable P/E ratios around 25-27x.
- Relative performance highlights HII's outperformance in shipbuilding amid naval expansion demands.
Introduction
AeroVironment (AVAV), Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII), and Northrop Grumman (NOC) represent key players in the aerospace and defense sector, focusing on unmanned systems, shipbuilding, and advanced aeronautics respectively. This stock comparison analyzes their recent market activity, business drivers, and relative positioning amid heightened geopolitical tensions and sustained U.S. defense spending. Traders seeking momentum in high-growth drones or stability in established contractors, and investors eyeing sector rotation opportunities, will find value in understanding their contrasts in performance, valuation, and catalysts for relative outperformance in the current environment.
AVAV Overview and Recent Performance
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) specializes in unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), loitering munitions like Switchblade, and counter-UAS technologies for U.S. and allied defense forces. In recent market activity, shares have experienced volatility, trading around $230 after a 52-week range of $102-$418, down about 5% YTD but up over 70% annually. Revenue surged 67% to $1.37 billion trailing twelve months, fueled by demand for autonomous systems amid global conflicts. Sentiment has been mixed due to margin pressures and a recent Q3 earnings miss, with shares pulling back 17% in a session amid Space Force program concerns, though a strong backlog supports long-term growth in precision strike capabilities.
HII Overview and Recent Performance
Huntington Ingalls Industries, Inc. (HII) is the largest U.S. military shipbuilder, designing nuclear-powered carriers, submarines, and non-nuclear vessels through its Ingalls and Newport News segments. Recent performance has been robust, with shares near $430 in a 52-week range of $177-$460, up 27% YTD and over 120% annually. Revenues hit $12.48 billion in fiscal 2025, up 8%, with Q4 EPS beating estimates at $4.04. Positive sentiment stems from record divisional revenues, a raised medium-term shipbuilding growth target to 6%, and strong free cash flow, bolstered by Navy contracts despite supply chain hurdles.
NOC Overview and Recent Performance
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) provides diversified aerospace and defense solutions, including B-21 bombers, missile systems, and space technologies. Shares trade around $756 in a $450-$774 range, up 33% YTD and 60% annually. Q4 2025 sales rose 10% to $11.7 billion, beating estimates, with full-year revenue at $42 billion and a record $95 billion backlog. Performance reflects steady execution in aeronautics and defense segments, with sentiment supported by mid-single-digit 2026 sales growth guidance and resilience in a volatile market.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
In business models, AVAV emphasizes agile UAS and munitions for tactical needs, contrasting HII's focus on large-scale naval platforms and NOC's broad aeronautics-to-space portfolio. Growth drivers favor AVAV's 150% quarterly revenue spikes from drone demand, while HII and NOC leverage massive backlogs ($95B for NOC) for steady 8-10% expansion. Recent momentum shows HII and NOC with 27-33% YTD gains versus AVAV's -5%, reflecting sector stability. Risk factors include AVAV's execution volatility and elevated P/S (6.4x), HII's supply chain issues, and NOC's program delays, with all sensitive to budget cycles. Valuation positions NOC and HII favorably at 25-27x P/E versus AVAV's premium multiples, while sentiment tilts toward shipbuilding and diversified giants amid naval and stealth priorities.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors HII for its consistent trend strength, 27% YTD outperformance, record revenues, and raised growth guidance amid naval buildup demands. While NOC offers backlog stability and AVAV high-growth potential, HII's relative momentum and sector catalysts suggest higher probability of near-term upside in the defense landscape.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileHII’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and NOC’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- AVAV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- HII’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- NOC’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAV’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HII’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and NOC’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAV’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HII’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NOC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAV (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -2.52% price change this week, while HII (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -0.56% , and NOC (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated -4.10% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +4.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.47%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAV is expected to report earnings on Jun 30, 2026.
HII is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
NOC is expected to report earnings on Apr 21, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+4.88% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| AVAV | HII | NOC | |
| Capitalization | 9.1B | 15.5B | 95.7B |
| EBITDA | 83.8M | 1.21B | 7.21B |
| Gain YTD | -25.702 | 16.341 | 18.533 |
| P/E Ratio | 149.03 | 25.63 | 23.17 |
| Revenue | 1.37B | 12.5B | 42B |
| Total Cash | 588M | 774M | 4.4B |
| Total Debt | 826M | 2.92B | 17B |
AVAV | HII | NOC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 70 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 16 Undervalued | 65 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 81 | 30 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 59 | 34 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 41 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 15 | 35 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 65 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HII's Valuation (16) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for NOC (65) and is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (84). This means that HII's stock grew somewhat faster than NOC’s and significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
NOC's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HII (30) and is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (81). This means that NOC's stock grew similarly to HII’s and significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
NOC's SMR Rating (34) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HII (59) and is somewhat better than the same rating for AVAV (90). This means that NOC's stock grew similarly to HII’s and somewhat faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
HII's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as NOC (49) and is in the same range as AVAV (65). This means that HII's stock grew similarly to NOC’s and similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
HII's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AVAV (16) and is in the same range as NOC (35). This means that HII's stock grew similarly to AVAV’s and similarly to NOC’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAV | HII | NOC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 87% | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 43% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 71% | 3 days ago 50% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 42% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 32% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 79% | 6 days ago 61% | 10 days ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 72% | 1 day ago 54% | 4 days ago 42% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 28% |
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HII and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HII has been loosely correlated with LHX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HII jumps, then LHX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HII | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HII | 100% | -2.22% | ||
| LHX - HII | 62% Loosely correlated | -1.22% | ||
| GD - HII | 61% Loosely correlated | -2.09% | ||
| KTOS - HII | 55% Loosely correlated | +2.94% | ||
| CW - HII | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.44% | ||
| KRMN - HII | 51% Loosely correlated | -2.02% | ||
More | ||||
NOC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NOC has been loosely correlated with RTX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if NOC jumps, then RTX could also see price increases.