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AVAV or HWM or JOBY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AeroVironment (AVAV) vs. Howmet Aerospace (HWM) vs. Joby Aviation (JOBY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AeroVironment (AVAV) benefits from defense demand for drones and loitering munitions, with a $1.1B backlog, though recent contract rebids pressured shares.
- Howmet Aerospace (HWM) leads with robust commercial aerospace growth, record revenues, and FY2026 guidance signaling 10% expansion.
- Joby Aviation (JOBY) advances eVTOL commercialization targeting 2026 launches in Dubai and U.S., but remains pre-revenue with high volatility.
- HWM shows strongest YTD performance at +22%, versus AVAV -5% and JOBY -28%.
- All three operate in aerospace/defense, but HWM offers profitability and stability, while AVAV and JOBY carry higher growth/risk profiles.
- Tickeron AI bots in aerospace/defense themes have delivered up to +97% annualized returns, highlighting sector momentum.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines AVAV, HWM, and JOBY, three players in the aerospace and defense sector amid rising demand for unmanned systems, advanced materials, and urban air mobility. AVAV focuses on drones, HWM on engineered components, and JOBY on eVTOL aircraft. Traders seeking momentum in defense spending or commercial aviation recovery, and investors eyeing long-term innovation in autonomous flight, will find value in analyzing their relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning in recent market activity.
AVAV Overview and Recent Performance
AeroVironment (AVAV) designs and produces unmanned aircraft systems, loitering munitions like Switchblade, and counter-UAS technologies for defense applications. In recent weeks, shares have faced volatility, declining around 20% from peaks amid a U.S. Space Force rebidding of a key $1.4B BlueHalo-acquired SCAR contract, offsetting a $1.1B funded backlog up 134%. Geopolitical tensions have boosted demand for precision strike systems, with Q2 FY2026 revenue surging 151% to $472.5M, though margins compressed due to acquisition costs. Upcoming Q3 earnings on March 10 are expected to show 182% revenue growth, driving sentiment shifts as investors weigh integration risks against defense tailwinds.
HWM Overview and Recent Performance
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) supplies advanced engineered solutions like jet engine components, fastening systems, and forged wheels for aerospace, defense, and transportation. Recent market activity has been positive, with shares up 22% YTD and 101% over the past year, fueled by Q4 FY2025 record revenue of $2.2B (+15% YoY) and EPS of $1.05 beating estimates. Commercial aerospace sales rose 13%, comprising 53% of revenue, alongside defense gains. FY2026 guidance projects 10% revenue growth to $9B+ and margin expansion, supported by a $1.8B acquisition and strong aftermarket demand, enhancing investor confidence in sustained momentum.
JOBY Overview and Recent Performance
Joby Aviation (JOBY) develops electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for urban air mobility, partnering with Uber for ridesharing. Shares have declined 28% YTD and 11% monthly amid broader market concerns, trading near $9.50 despite Q4 revenue doubling to $30.8M and $1.8B cash reserves post-raises. Progress toward FAA certification and Dubai commercial launches targeted for late 2026, with U.S. operations via eIPP, influences sentiment. High cash burn and pre-commercial status heighten volatility, though partnerships signal future scalability in air taxi services.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron’s Trending AI Robots page curates the top-performing AI trading bots from hundreds available on the platform, which trade thousands of tickers across diverse strategies, timeframes, and market conditions. Only those excelling in current volatility—low, medium, or high—earn a spot, with aerospace/defense bots like AeroDefense DFEN (+97% annualized return, 72% win rate) and Aerospace HWM (+63%, 71% win rate) showcasing up to +133% returns, 80-95% win rates, profit factors over 3-25, and closed P/L exceeding $15K on select portfolios. These bots adapt to trends in semiconductors, energy, and defense, often outperforming benchmarks. Explore Trending AI Robots to align automated strategies with your trading style.
Head-to-Head Comparison
AVAV, HWM, and JOBY share aerospace exposure but diverge in models: AVAV's defense-centric drone business offers event-driven growth via contracts, contrasting HWM's stable engineered products for commercial jets (53% revenue) and defense. JOBY bets on disruptive eVTOL, lacking current profitability. Recent momentum favors HWM (YTD +22%, 1Y +101%), over AVAV (1Y +70%, recent dips) and JOBY (1Y +46%, YTD -28%). Risks include AVAV's acquisition integration and contract volatility, HWM's supply chain exposure, and JOBY's certification delays. Valuations reflect trade-offs: HWM at premium multiples on earnings, others on growth potential. Sentiment tilts toward established cash flows amid sector rotation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors HWM due to consistent trend strength, profitability, and superior relative positioning with 10% growth guidance versus peers' uncertainties. AVAV shows catalyst potential post-earnings, while JOBY hinges on 2026 milestones; however, HWM's stability edges it probabilistically higher in the near term.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileHWM’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s), and JOBY’s FA Score reflects 0 green FA rating(s).
- AVAV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- HWM’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- JOBY’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAV’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HWM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and JOBY’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAV’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HWM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- JOBY’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAV (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -2.52% price change this week, while HWM (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was +8.59% , and JOBY (@Air Freight/Couriers) price fluctuated -1.88% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +4.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.47%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Air Freight/Couriers industry was +1.12%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.35%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAV is expected to report earnings on Jun 30, 2026.
HWM is expected to report earnings on May 07, 2026.
JOBY is expected to report earnings on May 13, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+4.88% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
@Air Freight/Couriers (+1.12% weekly)The Air Freight/Couriers industry operates air transportation and recurring delivery services. This includes companies offering same-day deliveries, scheduled delivery and logistical services. The proliferation of e-commerce/online retail with a growing emphasis on faster delivery has expanded opportunities for this industry, and induced more competition. United Parcel Service, Inc., FedEx Corporation and Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. are some of the major companies in this industry.
| AVAV | HWM | JOBY | |
| Capitalization | 9.1B | 101B | 8.17B |
| EBITDA | 83.8M | 2.27B | -679.43M |
| Gain YTD | -25.702 | 23.312 | -36.818 |
| P/E Ratio | 149.03 | 68.11 | N/A |
| Revenue | 1.37B | 8.25B | 53.4M |
| Total Cash | 588M | 742M | 1.41B |
| Total Debt | 826M | 3.21B | 36.8M |
AVAV | HWM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 12 | 74 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 84 Overvalued | 75 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 81 | 3 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 90 | 30 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 12 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 21 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HWM's Valuation (75) in the null industry is in the same range as AVAV (84) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM’s stock grew similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the null industry is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (81) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM’s stock grew significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's SMR Rating (30) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AVAV (90) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM’s stock grew somewhat faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's Price Growth Rating (12) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AVAV (65) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM’s stock grew somewhat faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
AVAV's P/E Growth Rating (16) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HWM (21) in the null industry. This means that AVAV’s stock grew similarly to HWM’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAV | HWM | JOBY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | N/A | 2 days ago 80% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 87% | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 85% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 77% | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 83% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 80% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 79% | 3 days ago 70% | 6 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 72% | 13 days ago 50% | 13 days ago 82% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 41% | 2 days ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 84% |
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HWM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HWM has been closely correlated with GE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HWM jumps, then GE could also see price increases.
JOBY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JOBY has been loosely correlated with SRTA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 36% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if JOBY jumps, then SRTA could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To JOBY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JOBY | 100% | +0.72% | ||
| SRTA - JOBY | 36% Loosely correlated | -0.25% | ||
| ASLE - JOBY | 27% Poorly correlated | +0.15% | ||
| OMAB - JOBY | 24% Poorly correlated | -1.04% | ||
| CAAP - JOBY | 23% Poorly correlated | -0.04% | ||
| SOAR - JOBY | 22% Poorly correlated | +15.85% | ||
More | ||||