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AVAV or HWM or LMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AeroVironment (AVAV) vs. Howmet Aerospace (HWM) vs. Lockheed Martin (LMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AVAV leads in revenue growth at over 100% YoY but faces recent volatility with shares down nearly 30% in the past month amid earnings misses and guidance cuts.
- HWM delivers strong momentum with 70%+ one-year returns and robust Q4 results, supported by aerospace engine demand, though trading at a premium P/E above 60.
- LMT offers stability via a massive $194 billion backlog and consistent YTD gains around 24%, with the lowest forward P/E near 20 amid rising defense budgets.
- All three benefit from aerospace and defense tailwinds, including geopolitical tensions and U.S. FY2026 defense spending over $900 billion, but vary in risk profiles from high-growth drones (AVAV) to components (HWM) and primes (LMT).
- Recent sector performance shows defense primes like LMT outperforming amid munitions and F-35 ramps, while AVAV contends with integration risks post-acquisition.
- Valuation trade-offs: LMT appears most attractive on forward multiples, balancing growth and stability.
Introduction
This comparison examines AVAV, HWM, and LMT within the aerospace and defense sector, where elevated geopolitical risks and U.S. defense budgets exceeding $900 billion fuel demand for unmanned systems, engine components, and fighter platforms. Traders seeking high-momentum plays may eye AVAV's drone growth, while investors prioritizing stability could favor LMT's backlog. HWM bridges both with commercial aerospace exposure. Amid recent market volatility, relative performance highlights sector resilience, aiding decisions on positioning in this critical industry.
AVAV Overview and Recent Performance
AeroVironment, Inc. (AVAV) specializes in unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), loitering munitions, and robotic technologies primarily for U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and allied customers. In recent market activity, shares have declined sharply, dropping around 30% over the past month from highs near $300, reflecting Q4 revenue misses despite 143% YoY growth to $408 million and full-year guidance below expectations at $1.9 billion midpoint. Sentiment has softened due to integration challenges from the BlueHalo acquisition, margin pressures, and lowered FY2026 outlook to $1.85-1.95 billion, though a $1.1 billion backlog and contracts like $117 million U.S. Army UAV awards provide support. Trading around $177 with a market cap near $9 billion, AVAV shows YTD losses of about 27% but 40-50% one-year gains, influenced by drone demand amid global conflicts.
HWM Overview and Recent Performance
Howmet Aerospace Inc. (HWM) engineers advanced components like engine products, fastening systems, and structures for aerospace and transportation, with heavy exposure to commercial and defense engines. Recent weeks have seen modest pullbacks, with shares dipping 2% amid broader market moves, yet Q4 sales rose 15% to $2.17 billion, beating estimates, alongside raised guidance signaling 10% revenue growth to $9.1 billion in 2026. Strong aftermarket demand and F-35 program ramps have bolstered sentiment, driving YTD gains of about 9% and over 70% one-year returns. At roughly $223 and a $90 billion market cap, HWM trades at a trailing P/E above 60, reflecting premium growth prospects in a sector benefiting from production ramps and supply chain stabilization.
LMT Overview and Recent Performance
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT), a leading prime contractor, delivers fighter jets like the F-35, missiles, rotary systems, and space platforms across Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space segments. In recent trading, shares have held steady with YTD gains near 24% and 35-40% over one year, supported by a record $194 billion backlog and steady DoD funding. Key influences include F-35 production ramps, missile restocking, and contracts like $478 million Navy awards, offsetting minor monthly dips around 8%. Trading near $599 with a $138 billion market cap and forward P/E around 20, LMT reflects resilient sentiment amid geopolitical demand for integrated defense solutions.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AVAV, HWM, and LMT operate in aerospace/defense but diverge in models: AVAV focuses on niche UAS growth (100%+ revenue surge) versus HWM's components (engine aftermarket) and LMT's prime integration scale. Growth drivers contrast: drone backlogs for AVAV, production ramps for HWM, F-35/missiles for LMT. Recent momentum favors LMT (24% YTD) over HWM (9%) amid AVAV's 27% YTD drop. Risks include execution/integration for AVAV, supply chains for HWM, program delays for LMT. Sector exposure is pure defense for AVAV/LMT, blended for HWM. Valuation sensitivity: LMT cheapest (forward P/E ~20), AVAV premium on growth (~48 forward), HWM elevated (~50+). Market sentiment leans bullish on budgets, with LMT most stable.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors LMT due to superior trend consistency from its $194 billion backlog, stable YTD performance, and catalysts like F-35 ramps amid rising defense outlays. Relative to AVAV's volatility and HWM's premium valuation, LMT shows probabilistic edge in stability and positioning, though rotations toward growth could elevate others.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileHWM’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s), and LMT’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- AVAV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- HWM’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- LMT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HWM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and LMT’s TA Score reflects 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- HWM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LMT’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAV (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +6.51% price change this week, while HWM (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was +1.20% , and LMT (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated -3.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +4.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.73%, and the average quarterly price growth was +29.52%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAV is expected to report earnings on Jun 30, 2026.
HWM is expected to report earnings on May 07, 2026.
LMT is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+4.81% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| AVAV | HWM | LMT | |
| Capitalization | 9.69B | 102B | 136B |
| EBITDA | 104M | 2.27B | 8.73B |
| Gain YTD | -20.865 | 24.786 | 23.082 |
| P/E Ratio | 149.03 | 68.92 | 27.56 |
| Revenue | 1.61B | 8.25B | 75B |
| Total Cash | 587M | 742M | 4.12B |
| Total Debt | 826M | 3.21B | 21.7B |
AVAV | HWM | LMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 26 | 54 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 73 Overvalued | 13 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 3 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 31 | 14 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 10 | 52 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 16 | 22 | 33 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 32 | 75 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LMT's Valuation (13) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HWM (73) in the null industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (83) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that LMT's stock grew somewhat faster than HWM’s and significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the null industry is in the same range as LMT (35) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (79) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM's stock grew similarly to LMT’s and significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's SMR Rating (14) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HWM (31) in the null industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (92) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that LMT's stock grew similarly to HWM’s and significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's Price Growth Rating (10) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LMT (52) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for AVAV (65) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM's stock grew somewhat faster than LMT’s and somewhat faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
AVAV's P/E Growth Rating (16) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HWM (22) in the null industry, and is in the same range as LMT (33) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that AVAV's stock grew similarly to HWM’s and similarly to LMT’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAV | HWM | LMT | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 81% | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 52% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 38% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 49% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 54% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 79% | 6 days ago 70% | 14 days ago 54% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 42% | 3 days ago 52% |
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AVAV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVAV has been loosely correlated with KTOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AVAV jumps, then KTOS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AVAV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 100% | -5.23% | ||
| KTOS - AVAV | 59% Loosely correlated | -4.60% | ||
| KRMN - AVAV | 45% Loosely correlated | -4.93% | ||
| MRCY - AVAV | 45% Loosely correlated | -1.01% | ||
| DRS - AVAV | 44% Loosely correlated | -0.82% | ||
| GD - AVAV | 42% Loosely correlated | +0.41% | ||
More | ||||
HWM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HWM has been closely correlated with GE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HWM jumps, then GE could also see price increases.
LMT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LMT has been loosely correlated with GD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if LMT jumps, then GD could also see price increases.