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AVAV or LMT or TDG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AeroVironment (AVAV) vs. Lockheed Martin (LMT) vs. TransDigm Group (TDG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AVAV has shown strong long-term gains with 52% one-year returns but declined sharply in recent weeks amid earnings volatility and acquisition integration.
- LMT leads YTD performance at 27% gains, backed by a record $194B backlog and steady defense demand, offering relative stability.
- TDG delivered robust Q1 revenue growth of 14% with high margins but faces share price pressure from high debt and market pullbacks.
- All three benefit from aerospace and defense sector tailwinds, including geopolitical tensions and rising budgets, though LMT shows superior momentum consistency.
- Recent price action: AVAV down ~25% monthly, LMT up overall but recent dips, TDG down 14% monthly despite strong fundamentals.
- Tickeron AI favors LMT for its backlog, stability, and relative outperformance in current conditions.
Introduction
This comparison examines AVAV, LMT, and TDG, key players in the aerospace and defense sector amid heightened geopolitical tensions and sustained U.S. military spending. AVAV focuses on unmanned systems, LMT on prime platforms like the F-35, and TDG on specialized components. Traders seeking growth in drones and investors prioritizing backlog stability or aftermarket resilience will find value in analyzing their relative performance, valuations, and market positioning in today's environment.
AVAV Overview and Recent Performance
AeroVironment (AVAV), a leader in unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), loitering munitions, and directed energy technologies, serves U.S. defense and international clients through its Autonomous Systems and Space, Cyber, Directed Energy segments. Recent market activity saw shares fluctuate amid Q3 fiscal 2026 earnings, with revenue hitting $408 million and bookings surging to $2.1 billion, building a record $1.1 billion funded backlog. Acquisitions like Empirical Systems Aerospace for $200 million bolster capabilities in hypersonics and testing. Sentiment reflects volatility from integration costs and program timing, with shares down over 20% in recent weeks from peaks near $300, trading around $196 amid broader sector rotation. Key drivers include demand for Switchblade munitions and counter-UAS solutions in contested environments.
LMT Overview and Recent Performance
Lockheed Martin (LMT), a global aerospace and defense giant, operates across Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space segments, delivering combat aircraft, missiles, helicopters, and satellites primarily to the U.S. government. Recent performance highlights a record $194 billion backlog and 6% full-year sales growth to $75 billion, with strong free cash flow of $6.9 billion. Shares reached all-time highs near $692 before recent pullbacks to around $610, reflecting YTD gains over 26% driven by F-35 production ramps, international deals, and missile defense demand. Sentiment remains positive with analyst upgrades, though sensitive to program funding and supply chain dynamics in recent market activity.
TDG Overview and Recent Performance
TransDigm Group (TDG) designs and supplies highly engineered aircraft components via Power & Control, Airframe, and Non-Aviation segments, emphasizing proprietary aftermarket parts for commercial and military platforms. Fiscal Q1 2026 revenue rose 14% to $2.29 billion with EBITDA margins near 52%, prompting raised full-year guidance amid acquisitions totaling $3.2 billion. Shares have pulled back over 14% in recent weeks to around $1,163 from peaks above $1,600, pressured by tariff concerns, interest costs, and high leverage despite undervaluation signals from analysts targeting $1,594. Performance reflects robust organic growth offset by sector-wide commercial aerospace moderation.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AVAV, LMT, and TDG share aerospace/defense exposure but diverge in models: AVAV's niche UAS/munitions drives high growth (52% 1Y return) yet volatility from execution risks; LMT's scale in primes yields stable momentum (27% YTD, $194B backlog) with lower beta; TDG leverages aftermarket pricing for 52% margins but trades at premium valuations amid debt concerns. Recent momentum favors LMT, while AVAV and TDG lag on pullbacks. Risks include funding delays for AVAV, program slips for LMT, and tariffs for TDG; trade-offs pit growth against stability in a rising budget landscape.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors LMT due to trend consistency, unmatched backlog visibility, and superior relative YTD positioning amid defense catalysts like missile demand and geopolitical shifts. While AVAV offers rebound potential post-correction and TDG high-margin resilience, LMT aligns best probabilistically with observable stability and momentum.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileLMT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and TDG’s FA Score reflects 2 green FA rating(s).
- AVAV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- LMT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- TDG’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LMT’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and TDG’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- LMT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- TDG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAV (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +1.46% price change this week, while LMT (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -6.20% , and TDG (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated +3.37% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +1.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was +29.41%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAV is expected to report earnings on Jun 30, 2026.
LMT is expected to report earnings on Apr 23, 2026.
TDG is expected to report earnings on May 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+1.71% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| AVAV | LMT | TDG | |
| Capitalization | 9.98B | 134B | 72B |
| EBITDA | 104M | 8.73B | 4.63B |
| Gain YTD | -18.463 | 20.815 | -4.153 |
| P/E Ratio | 149.03 | 27.05 | 41.01 |
| Revenue | 1.61B | 75B | 9.11B |
| Total Cash | 587M | 4.12B | 2.53B |
| Total Debt | 826M | 21.7B | 30B |
AVAV | LMT | TDG | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 16 | 52 | 8 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 13 Undervalued | 72 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 76 | 36 | 23 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 14 | 16 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 52 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 35 | 75 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 38 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LMT's Valuation (13) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for TDG (72) and is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (83). This means that LMT's stock grew somewhat faster than TDG’s and significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
TDG's Profit vs Risk Rating (23) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as LMT (36) and is somewhat better than the same rating for AVAV (76). This means that TDG's stock grew similarly to LMT’s and somewhat faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's SMR Rating (14) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as TDG (16) and is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (92). This means that LMT's stock grew similarly to TDG’s and significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as TDG (58) and is in the same range as AVAV (65). This means that LMT's stock grew similarly to TDG’s and similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
AVAV's P/E Growth Rating (17) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as LMT (35) and is somewhat better than the same rating for TDG (75). This means that AVAV's stock grew similarly to LMT’s and somewhat faster than TDG’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAV | LMT | TDG | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 85% | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 67% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 38% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 63% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 79% | 16 days ago 54% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 72% | 1 day ago 47% | 6 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 60% |
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AVAV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVAV has been loosely correlated with KTOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AVAV jumps, then KTOS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AVAV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 100% | +3.04% | ||
| KTOS - AVAV | 59% Loosely correlated | -1.63% | ||
| KRMN - AVAV | 45% Loosely correlated | -1.06% | ||
| MRCY - AVAV | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.08% | ||
| DRS - AVAV | 44% Loosely correlated | -0.74% | ||
| GD - AVAV | 42% Loosely correlated | -1.23% | ||
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