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AXON or HII or KTOS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Axon Enterprise (AXON) vs. Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) vs. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AXON has posted a 14.2% gain over the past month amid AI expansions in public safety tech, though valuation concerns linger with mixed recent returns.
- HII leads with over 115% one-year total shareholder return, fueled by naval shipbuilding demand, record backlogs, and key contracts in a resurgent U.S. defense sector.
- KTOS shows explosive 196% one-year gains, driven by drone contracts, hypersonics, and unmanned systems amid global defense modernization.
- All three benefit from defense and security tailwinds, but HII and KTOS exhibit stronger relative momentum versus broader markets.
- Valuation sensitivity is highest for AXON due to premium multiples, while HII offers relative value with stable government-backed revenue.
- Sector exposure contrasts public safety tech in AXON with pure-play defense shipbuilding in HII and agile unmanned systems in KTOS.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines AXON, HII, and KTOS amid heightened interest in defense and security technologies. These companies operate in overlapping yet distinct niches: public safety innovation, naval shipbuilding, and unmanned systems. Traders seeking exposure to geopolitical tensions, AI integration in defense, and steady government contracts will find value in analyzing their relative performance, growth drivers, and market positioning. Recent market activity highlights contrasts in momentum, valuation, and risk profiles, offering insights for portfolio diversification in a volatile environment focused on national security spending.
AXON Overview and Recent Performance
Axon Enterprise (AXON) leads in public safety technology, offering TASER devices, body cameras, drones, and AI-powered cloud software for law enforcement. Its business model blends hardware sales with high-margin SaaS recurring revenue from evidence management and virtual training. Recent market activity shows a 14.2% monthly gain, tempered by weekly pullbacks amid valuation debates. Sentiment reflects enthusiasm for AI enhancements driving software adoption, offset by elevated operating costs and competition. Q4 2025 results highlighted 39% revenue growth to $797 million, fueled by AI tools, though shares faced pressure from high multiples estimated at $377–$607. Broader performance includes 10.8% one-year returns, with influences from government spending and expanding international demand shaping positive yet cautious trader interest.
HII Overview and Recent Performance
Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) is the premier U.S. naval shipbuilder, specializing in aircraft carriers, submarines, and surface combatants through Newport News and Ingalls segments, plus Mission Technologies for cyber and unmanned solutions. Its model relies on long-term government contracts, yielding a record backlog exceeding $55 billion. Recent weeks feature robust momentum with 22% YTD gains and 115% one-year returns, outpacing peers on shipbuilding resurgence. Key drivers include collective bargaining agreements enhancing workforce stability and multi-billion-dollar awards like the $151 billion SHIELD program. Sentiment benefits from naval demand and AI automation partnerships, though supply chain pressures pose risks. Performance underscores sector strength, with shares near 52-week highs around $460 amid steady DoD funding.
KTOS Overview and Recent Performance
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) focuses on affordable unmanned aerial systems, hypersonics, drones, and rocket motors for national security. Its agile model targets high-growth areas like counter-UAS and attritable drones via Government Solutions and Unmanned Systems segments. Recent activity delivers standout 15% YTD and nearly 200% one-year gains, reflecting contract wins like $61 million for BQM-177A targets and Valkyrie drone milestones. Sentiment surges on 22% Q4 revenue growth to $345 million and a $1.57 billion backlog, driven by defense modernization and international partnerships such as Taiwan and Airbus. Influences include geopolitical demand for drones, though execution risks in scaling production temper gains, positioning KTOS as a high-momentum defense play.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AXON, HII, and KTOS share security themes but diverge in models: AXON’s SaaS-heavy public safety contrasts HII’s capital-intensive shipbuilding and KTOS’s nimble unmanned tech. Growth drivers favor HII and KTOS via DoD budgets—HII’s $55B backlog ensures visibility, KTOS thrives on hypersonics/drones—while AXON relies on AI software adoption. Recent momentum crowns KTOS (196% 1Y) and HII (115% 1Y) over AXON’s 11%, reflecting defense urgency versus valuation drags. Risks include HII’s supply chains, KTOS’s scaling, and AXON’s premiums (P/E ~370x vs. HII’s 24x). Sector exposure ties HII/KTOS to naval/geopolitical spend, AXON to law enforcement cycles. Valuation sensitivity peaks for AXON amid overvaluation flags; HII offers stability, KTOS growth at reasonable multiples. Sentiment leans bullish on defense duo’s catalysts versus AXON’s mixed signals.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors HII for its unmatched trend consistency, $55B backlog stability, and relative valuation amid naval demand surge. Probabilistic edge stems from lower beta, government contract insulation, and outperformance versus peers, positioning HII strongest for sustained relative gains in the current defense environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AXON’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileHII’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s), and KTOS’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- AXON’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- HII’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- KTOS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AXON’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HII’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and KTOS’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AXON’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- HII’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KTOS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AXON (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -14.89% price change this week, while HII (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was +1.70% , and KTOS (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated +1.52% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +4.33%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.07%, and the average quarterly price growth was +25.05%.
Reported Earning Dates
AXON is expected to report earnings on May 12, 2026.
HII is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
KTOS is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+4.33% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| AXON | HII | KTOS | |
| Capitalization | 28.2B | 15.9B | 12.8B |
| EBITDA | 196M | 1.21B | 103M |
| Gain YTD | -38.139 | 18.984 | -9.986 |
| P/E Ratio | 232.67 | 26.21 | 525.62 |
| Revenue | 2.78B | 12.5B | 1.35B |
| Total Cash | 1.73B | 774M | 561M |
| Total Debt | 1.91B | 2.92B | 146M |
AXON | HII | KTOS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 70 | 61 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 17 Undervalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 28 | 62 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 85 | 59 | 88 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 40 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 14 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 65 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HII's Valuation (17) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is significantly better than the same rating for AXON (88) in the Biotechnology industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for KTOS (94) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HII's stock grew significantly faster than AXON’s and significantly faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
HII's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (62) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for AXON (74) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that HII's stock grew somewhat faster than KTOS’s and somewhat faster than AXON’s over the last 12 months.
HII's SMR Rating (59) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AXON (85) in the Biotechnology industry, and is in the same range as KTOS (88) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HII's stock grew similarly to AXON’s and similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
HII's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as KTOS (56) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as AXON (65) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that HII's stock grew similarly to KTOS’s and similarly to AXON’s over the last 12 months.
AXON's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Biotechnology industry is in the same range as HII (14) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as KTOS (14) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that AXON's stock grew similarly to HII’s and similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
| AXON | HII | KTOS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 23 days ago 75% | 4 days ago 61% | 24 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 69% | 11 days ago 54% | 8 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 69% |
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AXON and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AXON has been loosely correlated with TECH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AXON jumps, then TECH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AXON | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXON | 100% | -10.27% | ||
| TECH - AXON | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.65% | ||
| VCYT - AXON | 58% Loosely correlated | -4.07% | ||
| BEAM - AXON | 57% Loosely correlated | +3.50% | ||
| SEER - AXON | 56% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| ADPT - AXON | 56% Loosely correlated | -9.70% | ||
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HII and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HII has been loosely correlated with LHX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HII jumps, then LHX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HII | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HII | 100% | -1.94% | ||
| LHX - HII | 62% Loosely correlated | -1.11% | ||
| GD - HII | 62% Loosely correlated | -1.75% | ||
| KTOS - HII | 55% Loosely correlated | -8.23% | ||
| CW - HII | 53% Loosely correlated | -0.88% | ||
| KRMN - HII | 51% Loosely correlated | -4.02% | ||
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KTOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KTOS has been loosely correlated with KRMN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KTOS jumps, then KRMN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KTOS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTOS | 100% | -8.23% | ||
| KRMN - KTOS | 62% Loosely correlated | -4.02% | ||
| AVAV - KTOS | 60% Loosely correlated | -4.94% | ||
| DRS - KTOS | 59% Loosely correlated | -1.73% | ||
| MRCY - KTOS | 56% Loosely correlated | -1.96% | ||
| HII - KTOS | 54% Loosely correlated | -1.94% | ||
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