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AXON or HWM or KTOS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Axon Enterprise (AXON) vs. Howmet Aerospace (HWM) vs. Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AXON showcases robust 39% annual recurring revenue growth but trades at a premium valuation with recent YTD underperformance around -10% amid volatility.
- HWM leads with strong YTD gains over 20%, fueled by 20% defense revenue growth and commercial aerospace demand, though at elevated multiples.
- KTOS delivers explosive momentum, up over 190% in the past year and 25% YTD, driven by drone contracts and a record $1.57B backlog.
- All three benefit from defense and security tailwinds, but HWM and KTOS show superior relative performance in recent market activity versus broader indices.
- Analyst consensus leans "Strong Buy" across the board, with growth catalysts in AI, geopolitics, and sector budgets supporting outperformance potential.
Introduction
This stock comparison evaluates AXON, HWM, and KTOS, key players in public safety technology and aerospace/defense sectors. These companies intersect amid rising demand for security solutions, unmanned systems, and engineered components, influenced by geopolitical tensions and budgetary expansions. Traders seeking short-term momentum and investors focused on long-term growth in defense-related industries will benefit from analyzing their relative performance, valuation sensitivities, and market positioning in the current environment.
AXON Overview and Recent Performance
Axon Enterprise (AXON) specializes in public safety technologies, including TASER devices, body cameras, and AI-enhanced cloud software for law enforcement. In recent weeks, the stock has exhibited volatility, with shares down approximately 10% YTD and 44% from 52-week highs near $886, underperforming broader markets despite a 28.6% monthly rise earlier. Strong Q4 revenue of $797 million, up 39% year-over-year, and 39.4% annual recurring revenue growth have bolstered sentiment, driven by demand for premium software and hardware. Analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" rating amid projections for continued earnings expansion, though premium valuations temper near-term upside.
HWM Overview and Recent Performance
Howmet Aerospace (HWM) provides advanced engineered solutions like jet engine components and fasteners for aerospace and defense applications. Recent market activity highlights robust performance, with shares up over 20% YTD and 21.6% in the past three months, outperforming the industrials sector. Defense aerospace revenues grew 20% in Q4 2025, comprising 17% of sales, amid expanding budgets and geopolitical demand. Q4 adjusted EPS beat estimates at $1.05, with 2026 guidance signaling 27-30% revenue growth potential. Elevated forward P/E around 51x reflects growth premiums, yet analysts project further upside.
KTOS Overview and Recent Performance
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) focuses on unmanned systems, drones, and national security technologies for defense clients. The stock has surged over 190% in the past year and 25% YTD, with recent sessions showing 6% gains amid high volume. Key drivers include a record $1.57 billion backlog, Q4 revenue up 22%, and contracts for hypersonic vehicles and drones with partners like Airbus. Momentum persists from geopolitical catalysts and U.S. defense spending, though volatility follows news flows, supporting a "Moderate Buy" consensus.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AXON’s SaaS-driven public safety model yields 39% revenue growth but highest volatility and P/E over 370x, contrasting HWM’s balanced aero-defense exposure (11-15% growth, P/E 51x) and stable components business. KTOS emphasizes high-growth unmanned tech with 20%+ organic rises and massive backlog, yet carries execution risks in R&D-heavy drones versus HWM’s established jet supply chain. Recent momentum favors KTOS (190% 1Y) over HWM (107% 1Y) and AXON (-8% 1Y), amid shared geopolitical tailwinds. Valuation sensitivity highest for AXON, while sector budgets boost all, with trade-offs in stability versus upside.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors HWM for its consistent trend strength, dual-sector stability, and relative outperformance in recent weeks, positioning it ahead probabilistically amid defense budget expansions and aero recovery. KTOS offers higher momentum potential via backlog catalysts, while AXON lags on valuation drag despite fundamentals.
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AXON’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileHWM’s FA Score has 4 green FA rating(s), and KTOS’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- AXON’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- HWM’s FA Score: 4 green, 1 red.
- KTOS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AXON’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HWM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and KTOS’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AXON’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- HWM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- KTOS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AXON (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -16.20% price change this week, while HWM (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was +8.59% , and KTOS (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated +4.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +4.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +27.47%.
Reported Earning Dates
AXON is expected to report earnings on May 12, 2026.
HWM is expected to report earnings on May 07, 2026.
KTOS is expected to report earnings on May 06, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+4.88% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| AXON | HWM | KTOS | |
| Capitalization | 27.8B | 101B | 13.2B |
| EBITDA | 196M | 2.27B | 103M |
| Gain YTD | -39.088 | 23.312 | -7.338 |
| P/E Ratio | 229.10 | 68.11 | 541.08 |
| Revenue | 2.78B | 8.25B | 1.35B |
| Total Cash | 1.73B | 742M | 561M |
| Total Debt | 1.91B | 3.21B | 146M |
AXON | HWM | KTOS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 52 | 74 | 63 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 87 Overvalued | 75 Overvalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 3 | 61 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 85 | 30 | 88 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 66 | 12 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 12 | 21 | 14 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 90 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HWM's Valuation (75) in the null industry is in the same range as AXON (87) in the Biotechnology industry, and is in the same range as KTOS (94) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM's stock grew similarly to AXON’s and similarly to KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (61) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for AXON (75) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that HWM's stock grew somewhat faster than KTOS’s and significantly faster than AXON’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's SMR Rating (30) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AXON (85) in the Biotechnology industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (88) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that HWM's stock grew somewhat faster than AXON’s and somewhat faster than KTOS’s over the last 12 months.
HWM's Price Growth Rating (12) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for KTOS (63) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for AXON (66) in the Biotechnology industry. This means that HWM's stock grew somewhat faster than KTOS’s and somewhat faster than AXON’s over the last 12 months.
AXON's P/E Growth Rating (12) in the Biotechnology industry is in the same range as KTOS (14) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as HWM (21) in the null industry. This means that AXON's stock grew similarly to KTOS’s and similarly to HWM’s over the last 12 months.
| AXON | HWM | KTOS | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | N/A | 1 day ago 85% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 25 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 70% | 26 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 13 days ago 50% | 10 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 41% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 70% |
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AXON and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AXON has been loosely correlated with TECH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AXON jumps, then TECH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AXON | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AXON | 100% | -1.53% | ||
| TECH - AXON | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.05% | ||
| VCYT - AXON | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.83% | ||
| BEAM - AXON | 57% Loosely correlated | +4.18% | ||
| SEER - AXON | 56% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| ADPT - AXON | 56% Loosely correlated | -4.55% | ||
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HWM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HWM has been closely correlated with GE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HWM jumps, then GE could also see price increases.
KTOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KTOS has been loosely correlated with KRMN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KTOS jumps, then KRMN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KTOS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KTOS | 100% | +2.94% | ||
| KRMN - KTOS | 62% Loosely correlated | -2.02% | ||
| AVAV - KTOS | 60% Loosely correlated | +1.14% | ||
| DRS - KTOS | 59% Loosely correlated | -2.21% | ||
| MRCY - KTOS | 56% Loosely correlated | +0.47% | ||
| HII - KTOS | 55% Loosely correlated | -2.22% | ||
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