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BTI or DG or PM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? British American Tobacco (BTI) vs. Dollar General (DG) vs. Philip Morris International (PM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BTI offers the highest dividend yield at approximately 5.8%, with a low P/E ratio of 12.4, appealing to value-oriented investors in recent market activity.
- DG has shown strong YTD gains around 10%, driven by discount retail momentum, though recent weeks saw some pullback amid operational concerns.
- PM leads in market cap at over $264B and smoke-free product growth, with YTD performance near 6% but higher P/E of 23.4 reflecting premium valuation.
- Over the past year, BTI delivered superior returns around 50%, outperforming PM's 15% and DG's 77% in relative stability.
- All three exhibit defensive qualities, but DG faces consumer spending sensitivity while tobacco peers benefit from smokeless shifts.
Introduction
This comparison examines BTI, DG, and PM—representing tobacco giants and a discount retailer—in the consumer defensive space. These stocks attract income seekers, value investors, and traders eyeing stability amid economic uncertainty. With high dividends, resilient demand, and sector rotation, they offer insights into defensive positioning, growth in smokeless products for tobacco firms, and value retail resilience. Investors tracking relative performance and market sentiment will find this analysis key for portfolio decisions in varying conditions.
BTI Overview and Recent Performance
British American Tobacco (BTI) is a global leader in tobacco and nicotine products, including vapour, heated, and modern oral categories like Vuse and Velo. Headquartered in London, it operates across combustibles and smokeless segments. In recent weeks, BTI shares experienced weakness despite strong 2025 results showing revenue and profit growth from smokeless categories, with YTD returns around 2% and one-year gains over 50%. Sentiment reflects robust long-term returns but short-term pressures, bolstered by a high dividend yield near 5.8% and low P/E of 12.4. Market cap stands at $125B, with focus on U.S. recovery and new category acceleration influencing performance.
DG Overview and Recent Performance
Dollar General (DG), based in Goodlettsville, Tennessee, runs over 20,000 small-box discount stores offering everyday essentials. It targets value-conscious shoppers with consumables and general merchandise. Recent market activity showed YTD gains of about 10%, with one-year returns near 77-98%, though shares dipped in recent weeks amid store closures and pre-earnings caution. Trading around $146 with a market cap of $32B, P/E of 25.3, and dividend yield of 1.6%, performance has been buoyed by traffic from budget consumers and cost controls, but sensitive to economic shifts and operational issues.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International (PM), headquartered in Stamford, Connecticut, focuses on cigarettes and smoke-free innovations like IQOS, ZYN, and heated tobacco. It serves global markets with a shift toward reduced-risk products. In recent weeks, shares pulled back post-earnings miss on adjusted metrics, with YTD around 6% and one-year at 15%. At $170, market cap exceeds $264B, P/E 23.4, yield 3.5%; performance reflects smoke-free revenue at 42% of total, but regulatory and margin pressures tempered sentiment despite strong consumer base.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BTI and PM share tobacco exposure, emphasizing smokeless transitions amid regulatory risks, while DG leverages discount retail amid inflation sensitivity. Growth drivers differ: tobacco firms via IQOS/ZYN/Velo (PM/BTI smoke-free ~42%), DG via store expansion. Recent momentum favors DG YTD, but BTI leads longer-term. Risks include litigation for tobacco, competition/operations for DG. Valuation: BTI cheapest (P/E 12), PM premium, DG mid-range. Sentiment tilts to tobacco stability over retail volatility.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors BTI for its trend consistency in longer horizons, attractive valuation, superior yield, and defensive tobacco positioning with smokeless catalysts, relative to PM's premium and DG's cyclicality. Probability leans toward sustained outperformance in uncertain environments, though monitoring earnings and sector shifts remains key.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BTI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileDG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and PM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- BTI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- DG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BTI’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DG’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s), and PM’s TA Score reflects 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BTI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- DG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
BTI (@Tobacco) experienced а +0.98% price change this week, while DG (@Discount Stores) price change was +0.48% , and PM (@Tobacco) price fluctuated +1.99% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was +1.70%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.58%, and the average quarterly price growth was -7.40%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Discount Stores industry was +0.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.87%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.43%.
Reported Earning Dates
BTI is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
DG is expected to report earnings on May 21, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Tobacco (+1.70% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
@Discount Stores (+0.71% weekly)Companies in the discount stores industry specialize in offering substantial discounts on a vast array of retail products. Some companies in this industry also operate general merchandise warehouse clubs. Products sold at discount stores are typically similar to those of any department store, but the pricing of the goods is generally much lower (and hence the name “discount”). Think Dollar General Corporation, Dollar Tree, Inc. and Five Below, Inc. Many discount stores target low-income households and/or price-sensitive consumers as their potential market. Discount stores’ profitability could hinge on factors like competitive pricing, sufficient locations, healthy revenue per square foot, and effective advertisement. These store operators could have an edge over other retailers during financial crises or recessions, when many consumers could be looking for less expensive alternatives.
| BTI | DG | PM | |
| Capitalization | 128B | 26.4B | 251B |
| EBITDA | 14.1B | 3.24B | 17.5B |
| Gain YTD | 5.450 | -8.992 | 1.427 |
| P/E Ratio | 12.58 | 17.48 | 22.20 |
| Revenue | 25.6B | 42.7B | 40.6B |
| Total Cash | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Total Debt | N/A | 15.7B | 48.8B |
BTI | DG | PM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 7 | 16 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 12 Undervalued | 33 Fair valued | 23 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 100 | 16 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 99 | 45 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 57 | 57 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 93 | 55 | 73 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 34 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BTI's Valuation (12) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PM (23) in the Tobacco industry, and is in the same range as DG (33) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that BTI's stock grew similarly to PM’s and similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
BTI's Profit vs Risk Rating (9) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PM (16) in the Tobacco industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for DG (100) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that BTI's stock grew similarly to PM’s and significantly faster than DG’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DG (45) in the Discount Stores industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for BTI (99) in the Tobacco industry. This means that PM's stock grew somewhat faster than DG’s and significantly faster than BTI’s over the last 12 months.
BTI's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PM (57) in the Tobacco industry, and is in the same range as DG (57) in the Discount Stores industry. This means that BTI's stock grew similarly to PM’s and similarly to DG’s over the last 12 months.
DG's P/E Growth Rating (55) in the Discount Stores industry is in the same range as PM (73) in the Tobacco industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for BTI (93) in the Tobacco industry. This means that DG's stock grew similarly to PM’s and somewhat faster than BTI’s over the last 12 months.
| BTI | DG | PM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 52% | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 48% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 47% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 5 days ago 62% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 43% | 15 days ago 64% | 22 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 65% | 4 days ago 68% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 29% | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 41% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| FDLS | 38.99 | 0.27 | +0.70% |
| Inspire Fidelis Multi Factor ETF | |||
| HIBS | 40.26 | 0.26 | +0.65% |
| Direxion Daily S&P 500® Hi Bt Br 3X ETF | |||
| IWD | 223.17 | 1.22 | +0.55% |
| iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF | |||
| ZNOV | 26.85 | 0.04 | +0.15% |
| Innovator Equity Defined Prt ETF -1YrNov | |||
| GIGB | 46.01 | 0.03 | +0.07% |
| Goldman Sachs Acss Invmt Grd Corp Bd ETF | |||