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BTI or HSY or PM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? British American Tobacco (BTI) vs. The Hershey Company (HSY) vs. Philip Morris International (PM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BTI offers the highest dividend yield at approximately 5.8%, with a low P/E ratio of 12.4, appealing to value investors amid recent share price weakness despite smokeless product growth.
- HSY shows robust salty snacks segment expansion with 28% sales growth, but trades at a premium P/E of over 50, reflecting cocoa cost pressures and mixed valuation debates.
- PM leads in smoke-free transformation, with 42% of revenues from such products and a 19.7% one-year return, supported by a 3.5% dividend yield and P/E around 23.
- Year-to-date, PM up ~6%, HSY mixed amid volatility, BTI stable but down recently; all provide defensive sector exposure.
- Tobacco peers BTI and PM emphasize next-gen nicotine, while HSY diversifies into snacks, highlighting trade-offs in growth vs. yield.
- Market caps: PM ~$265B, BTI ~$125B, HSY ~$46B, influencing liquidity and stability.
Introduction
This comparison examines BTI, HSY, and PM—defensive consumer staples stocks in tobacco and confectionery. Investors seeking high dividends, relative stability, and sector rotation amid market volatility may find value here. Tobacco firms navigate regulatory shifts toward smokeless alternatives, while HSY leverages snacks growth. Recent performance reflects commodity pressures, earnings momentum, and transformation progress, aiding stock comparison and relative performance analysis in today's environment.
BTI Overview and Recent Performance
British American Tobacco (BTI) is a global leader in tobacco and nicotine products, including vapour (Vuse), heated (glo), modern oral (Velo), and combustibles across regions. In recent market activity, shares experienced a weekly decline of about 5%, trading around $58 amid a 52-week range of $38-$63. Sentiment reflects undervaluation estimates up to 36%, bolstered by preliminary 2025 results showing smokeless revenue at 18.2% of group total, up 70 basis points, with 4.7 million new consumers added to 34.1 million. Influences include resilient combustibles, productivity gains, and 2026 guidance for 3-5% revenue growth, supporting a forward dividend yield near 5.8% and low P/E of 12.4.
HSY Overview and Recent Performance
The Hershey Company (HSY) manufactures confectionery and pantry staples, leading U.S. confection with brands like Hershey's, Reese's, and expanding salty snacks (SkinnyPop). Recent weeks saw positive momentum, with shares around $225 in a 52-week range of $150-$239, up modestly YTD but volatile quarterly gains of 30%. Key drivers include 28% salty snacks sales surge, analyst upgrades (e.g., Piper Sandler to $213 overweight), and acquisitions like LesserEvil, offsetting cocoa inflation via pricing. 2026 outlook exceeds estimates on demand resilience, though high P/E over 50 signals premium valuation amid margin debates.
PM Overview and Recent Performance
Philip Morris International (PM) focuses on smoke-free products like IQOS, ZYN, comprising 42% of revenues across 106 markets. Shares trade near $170 in a $142-$191 range, up 6% YTD and 19.7% annually, post-earnings dip on slight misses but affirmed $1.47 dividend. Recent developments highlight 40%+ smoke-free revenue growth, undervaluation by 14%, and organizational shifts for agility. Influences encompass ZYN demand, international expansion, and Q4 revenue alignment, with P/E ~23 and 3.5% yield supporting sentiment amid regulatory navigation.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BTI and PM share tobacco models pivoting to smokeless (18% vs. 42% revenue), with growth from nicotine pouches, but BTI offers superior yield (5.8%) and lower P/E (12) versus PM’s growth premium (P/E 23). HSY diversifies via 28% snacks surge, less regulatory risk but cocoa sensitivity, high P/E (>50), and 2.6% yield. Momentum favors PM (19.7% annual return), BTI stability (low beta 0.06), HSY volatility. Risks: regulation for tobacco, commodities for HSY; valuations sensitive to earnings execution.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors PM for superior trend consistency in smoke-free catalysts, relative YTD outperformance, and positioning in high-growth nicotine alternatives, with probabilistic edge over BTI’s value tilt and HSY’s premium amid commodity flux.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BTI’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileHSY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s), and PM’s FA Score reflects 3 green FA rating(s).
- BTI’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- HSY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PM’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BTI’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HSY’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s), and PM’s TA Score reflects 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BTI’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- HSY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BTI (@Tobacco) experienced а -3.62% price change this week, while HSY (@Food: Specialty/Candy) price change was -4.78% , and PM (@Tobacco) price fluctuated -1.66% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Tobacco industry was -1.34%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.47%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.25%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Food: Specialty/Candy industry was -2.68%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -2.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.01%.
Reported Earning Dates
BTI is expected to report earnings on Apr 28, 2026.
HSY is expected to report earnings on Apr 30, 2026.
PM is expected to report earnings on Apr 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Tobacco (-1.34% weekly)The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.
@Food: Specialty/Candy (-2.68% weekly)A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.
| BTI | HSY | PM | |
| Capitalization | 121B | 39B | 246B |
| EBITDA | 14.1B | 1.94B | 17.5B |
| Gain YTD | 1.561 | 6.547 | -0.749 |
| P/E Ratio | 11.96 | 44.38 | 21.72 |
| Revenue | 25.6B | 11.7B | 40.6B |
| Total Cash | N/A | 926M | N/A |
| Total Debt | N/A | 5.74B | 48.8B |
BTI | HSY | PM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 79 | 7 | 76 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 12 Undervalued | 34 Fair valued | 23 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 13 | 71 | 19 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 99 | 46 | 3 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 50 | 59 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 95 | 7 | 81 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BTI's Valuation (12) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PM (23) in the Tobacco industry, and is in the same range as HSY (34) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry. This means that BTI's stock grew similarly to PM’s and similarly to HSY’s over the last 12 months.
BTI's Profit vs Risk Rating (13) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as PM (19) in the Tobacco industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for HSY (71) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry. This means that BTI's stock grew similarly to PM’s and somewhat faster than HSY’s over the last 12 months.
PM's SMR Rating (3) in the Tobacco industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HSY (46) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for BTI (99) in the Tobacco industry. This means that PM's stock grew somewhat faster than HSY’s and significantly faster than BTI’s over the last 12 months.
BTI's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Tobacco industry is in the same range as HSY (59) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry, and is in the same range as PM (60) in the Tobacco industry. This means that BTI's stock grew similarly to HSY’s and similarly to PM’s over the last 12 months.
HSY's P/E Growth Rating (7) in the Food Specialty Or Candy industry is significantly better than the same rating for PM (81) in the Tobacco industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for BTI (95) in the Tobacco industry. This means that HSY's stock grew significantly faster than PM’s and significantly faster than BTI’s over the last 12 months.
| BTI | HSY | PM | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 55% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 49% | N/A | 3 days ago 48% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | N/A | 3 days ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 42% | 3 days ago 55% | 3 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 37% | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 51% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 61% | 11 days ago 64% | 11 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 43% | 4 days ago 56% | 4 days ago 48% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 70% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 34% |
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HSY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HSY has been loosely correlated with KHC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HSY jumps, then KHC could also see price increases.