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BWXT or CW or MRCY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BWX Technologies (BWXT) vs. Curtiss-Wright (CW) vs. Mercury Systems (MRCY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BWXT leads in nuclear-focused defense with Q1 2026 revenue up 26% YoY to $860M and raised full-year guidance, supported by a $8.65B backlog.
- CW shows strongest YTD performance at +32%, driven by diversified aerospace and defense exposure, with market cap of $26.9B.
- MRCY reported Q3 FY26 EPS beat of +350% and revenue surprise of +12%, reflecting turnaround in defense electronics amid record backlog.
- All three stocks have outperformed the S&P 500 over one year, with CW at +103%, BWXT +85%, and MRCY +62%.
- Recent earnings beats across the board signal robust defense sector demand, though valuations remain elevated with P/E ratios above 50x for BWXT and CW.
- Sector tailwinds from naval programs and electronic warfare position these stocks for relative outperformance in aerospace and defense.
Introduction
BWX Technologies (BWXT), Curtiss-Wright (CW), and Mercury Systems (MRCY) operate in the aerospace and defense sector, specializing in nuclear components, engineered systems, and secure processing technologies. This comparison evaluates their recent market performance, business drivers, and relative positioning amid rising geopolitical tensions and U.S. defense spending. Investors seeking exposure to naval propulsion, avionics, and electronic warfare may find value in assessing these stocks' momentum, backlogs, and growth catalysts in the current environment.
BWXT Overview and Recent Performance
BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) is a leading supplier of nuclear components and fuel, primarily serving U.S. naval nuclear propulsion programs through its Government Operations segment and commercial nuclear applications via Commercial Operations. Recent market activity has seen shares trade around $206, reflecting YTD gains of 19% and one-year returns of 85%, outperforming broader indices. Sentiment has been bolstered by Q1 2026 results, with revenue surging 26% year-over-year to $860 million, GAAP net income of $91 million, and adjusted EBITDA of $148 million. The company raised 2026 guidance for adjusted EBITDA to $650-$665 million and announced the acquisition of Precision Components Group to expand U.S. nuclear manufacturing capacity. A robust $8.65 billion backlog and nuclear demand from defense and clean energy have driven positive price behavior, though shares pulled back post-earnings amid profit-taking.
CW Overview and Recent Performance
Curtiss-Wright Corporation (CW) designs and manufactures engineered products for aerospace, defense, nuclear power, and industrial markets across three segments: Aerospace & Industrial, Defense Electronics, and Naval & Power. Shares have shown strong momentum, trading near $729 with YTD returns of 32% and one-year gains of 103%, leading peers in relative performance. Recent weeks reflect steady upward trends fueled by a growing backlog and anticipation for Q1 2026 earnings, expected to show growth. Prior Q4 FY25 results featured revenue of $947 million and adjusted EPS of $3.79, beating estimates. Diversified exposure to avionics, pumps, valves, and naval systems has supported sentiment, with market cap at $26.9 billion underscoring scale advantages in defense spending cycles.
MRCY Overview and Recent Performance
Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) provides secure processing subsystems, modules, and components for defense and aerospace, focusing on electronic warfare, radar, and UAV applications. Trading around $83, the stock has posted YTD returns of 14% and one-year gains of 62%, with recent surges post-earnings. Q3 FY26 results highlighted a major beat, with adjusted EPS of $0.27 versus $0.07 expected and revenue of $236 million topping forecasts by 12%. Record backlog nearing $1.5 billion and restructuring efforts have improved free cash flow to $46 million, shifting sentiment toward turnaround potential in defense electronics demand.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
BWXT, CW, and MRCY share defense sector exposure but diverge in focus: BWXT's nuclear propulsion offers sole-source stability for naval reactors, contrasting CW's broader engineered systems across avionics and power, and MRCY's embedded computing for electronic warfare. Growth drivers include BWXT's commercial nuclear expansion and acquisitions versus CW's backlog from aerospace recovery and MRCY's restructuring for margin improvement. Recent momentum favors CW's YTD lead, with BWXT stable near highs and MRCY rebounding. Risks involve elevated P/E ratios (50-60x) signaling valuation sensitivity, higher debt for BWXT, and execution for MRCY. Market sentiment tilts positive on defense budgets, but CW's diversification mitigates sector-specific trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors CW due to superior trend consistency, YTD momentum, and diversified positioning across high-demand defense subsectors. Its larger scale and profitability provide stability amid catalysts like earnings growth, while relative valuation aligns with outperformance potential versus BWXT's nuclear purity and MRCY's volatility.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BWXT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileCW’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s), and MRCY’s FA Score reflects 1 green FA rating(s).
- BWXT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- CW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MRCY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BWXT’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CW’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s), and MRCY’s TA Score reflects 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BWXT’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- CW’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MRCY’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BWXT (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -4.47% price change this week, while CW (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -4.13% , and MRCY (@Aerospace & Defense) price fluctuated +0.52% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -1.86%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was +54.11%.
Reported Earning Dates
BWXT is expected to report earnings on Aug 10, 2026.
CW is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
MRCY is expected to report earnings on Aug 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-1.86% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| BWXT | CW | MRCY | |
| Capitalization | 18.1B | 26B | 5.57B |
| EBITDA | 569M | 818M | 88.4M |
| Gain YTD | 14.480 | 27.921 | 27.106 |
| P/E Ratio | 52.62 | 51.64 | N/A |
| Revenue | 3.38B | 3.61B | 967M |
| Total Cash | N/A | 343M | 332M |
| Total Debt | 2.02B | 1.15B | 654M |
BWXT | CW | MRCY | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 63 | 9 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 71 Overvalued | 98 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 13 | 3 | 77 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 34 | 46 | 91 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 44 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 17 | 20 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CW's Valuation (71) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as BWXT (94) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as MRCY (98) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry. This means that CW's stock grew similarly to BWXT’s and similarly to MRCY’s over the last 12 months.
CW's Profit vs Risk Rating (3) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as BWXT (13) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is significantly better than the same rating for MRCY (77) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry. This means that CW's stock grew similarly to BWXT’s and significantly faster than MRCY’s over the last 12 months.
BWXT's SMR Rating (34) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as CW (46) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is somewhat better than the same rating for MRCY (91) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry. This means that BWXT's stock grew similarly to CW’s and somewhat faster than MRCY’s over the last 12 months.
MRCY's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as CW (44) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as BWXT (48) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that MRCY's stock grew similarly to CW’s and similarly to BWXT’s over the last 12 months.
MRCY's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as BWXT (17) in the Aerospace And Defense industry, and is in the same range as CW (20) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that MRCY's stock grew similarly to BWXT’s and similarly to CW’s over the last 12 months.
| BWXT | CW | MRCY | |
|---|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | N/A | 1 day ago 82% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 28 days ago 69% | 8 days ago 68% | 7 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 47% | 17 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 81% | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 59% |
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BWXT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BWXT has been closely correlated with CW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BWXT jumps, then CW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BWXT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BWXT | 100% | -2.15% | ||
| CW - BWXT | 73% Closely correlated | -0.76% | ||
| AIR - BWXT | 51% Loosely correlated | -2.79% | ||
| KTOS - BWXT | 51% Loosely correlated | -1.39% | ||
| MRCY - BWXT | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.63% | ||
| HWM - BWXT | 48% Loosely correlated | -1.51% | ||
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CW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CW has been closely correlated with BWXT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CW jumps, then BWXT could also see price increases.
MRCY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MRCY has been loosely correlated with KTOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MRCY jumps, then KTOS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To MRCY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MRCY | 100% | -0.63% | ||
| KTOS - MRCY | 57% Loosely correlated | -1.39% | ||
| CW - MRCY | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.76% | ||
| BWXT - MRCY | 50% Loosely correlated | -2.15% | ||
| DRS - MRCY | 50% Loosely correlated | +0.16% | ||
| KRMN - MRCY | 49% Loosely correlated | -3.04% | ||
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